This article is part of our Golf Picks series.
RBC Canadian Open Betting Preview
This week the PGA Tour heads north of the border for the RBC Canadian Open at Hamilton Golf and Country Club in Ontario. Although it's the lead-in to a busy part of the schedule that includes a pair of signature events as well as the U.S. Open over the next three weeks, it's still a solid field that is highlighted by tournament favorite, Rory McIlroy (+360). Last year, Nick Taylor (70-1) provided one of the highlights of the year, holing a 72-foot eagle putt on the third playoff hole to defeat Tommy Fleetwood and become the first Canadian to win his country's title since 1954.
Hamilton takes over as this year's venue for the first time since 2019, which was won by McIlroy in dominating fashion over Webb Simpson and fellow countryman Shane Lowry by seven strokes. As a result, we don't have the usual data or course history to draw from. That's even more true as Hamilton G&CC went through a complete renovation following the 2019 tournament. A par-70 at just under 7,100 yards, this is a short course by Tour standards with just two par-5s, and only two of the par-4s play over 460 yards. That along with several dogleg holes will result in players often using less than driver off the tee, and there's certainly a premium on accuracy over distance on the fairways that average just 30 yards wide while being surrounded by medium length rough. Iron play will likely be a key stat to focus on and especially those that approach it well from 100-150 yards. In addition to accurate drivers and good wedge players, I think short-game specialists should do well here as players won't be hitting greens in regulation at a high percentage.
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Iron Play Specialists
These five golfers, on a per-round basis, gained the most strokes on approach over their last 20 rounds.
- Corey Conners: 1.14
- Rory McIlroy: 0.93
- Shane Lowry: 0.83
- Adam Svensson: 0.82
- Seamus Power: 0.79
Canadian Conners tops the list as he's elevated his iron game from a solid level to elite recently, ranking in the top-5 in SG: Approach in back-to-back tournaments and only Scottie Scheffler has been better in the category on the season. Although he missed the cut the last time the event was held here, he's rebounded with finishes of T6 and T20 at the event since and is the fourth betting choice at 20-1 odds. Another player on the list that will have high expectations this week is Lowry (22-1 odds), who has posted three top-15s over his last four Canadian Open appearances, including the T2 at Hamilton in 2019. He's gained over a stroke per round on approach in four of his last seven tournaments, and that's helped lead to four finishes of T6 or better since March.
RBC Canadian Open Bets: Outright Picks
Tommy Fleetwood (16-1)
I think it's safe to say that Fleetwood is the best player yet to win a PGA Tour event, and I also think he's going to get the monkey off his back soon. He constantly puts himself in contention, especially in Canada where he's finished runner-up and T6.
Mackenzie Hughes (35-1)
Hughes gets the Canadian bump and as I noted above, if the course plays difficult it will favor short-game specialists. It's hard to find a better anyone better at that than Hughes, who ranks in the top-20 in SG: Around-the-Green and SG: Putting this year.
Kevin Yu (65-1)
If you're looking for a longshot that is capable of winning, don't overlook Yu. The 25-year-old has been hit-or-miss this year – he only has four top-35 results but they're all top-10s. He's fifth in SG: Off-the-Tee and 37th in SG: Approach and has the ceiling we're looking for in outright bets.
RBC Canadian Open Bets: Top-10 Wagers
Mac Meissner (13-2)
Meissner had a slow start to his rookie campaign but has started to find his form with a T13 two starts back followed by his first ever top-5 Tour finish last week. He's a solid 30th in SG: Total this year.
C.T. Pan (9-1)
Pan has played well in Canada with results of T14 and T3 last year and seems to pop up near the top of leaderboards every so often with three top-5s since last May. He should fit the course well as a short but accurate driver, who is also 28th in SG: Around-the-Green.
Charley Hoffman (10-1)
Hoffman got off to the first-round lead at Colonial last week, which grades as a similar course to Hamilton. The veteran has had a resurgent year with a pair of top-5s and also has three top-10s across nine Canadian Open appearances.
RBC Canadian Open Bets: Head-to-Head Matchups
Davis Thompson (-110) over Adam Hadwin
Yes, I'm going against a Canadian. Thompson is starting to emerge in his sophomore season (he's only 24-years-old) with five top-25s over his last seven starts, which is the type of consistency to target in matchup bets. Hadwin has just been so-so this season, losing strokes off-the-tee and on approach, and he's failed to post a top-40 in his last four starts.
Seamus Power (-110) over Beau Hossler
Power last played at Quail Hollow, where he ranked third in SG: Approach for his second top-20 over his last three starts. I had high hopes for Hossler this year, but he's mostly disappointed with just one top-25 over his last 10 starts with five missed cuts over that stretch. He's a lowly 159th in approach this year, so I don't see him getting it turned around anytime soon.
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