This article is part of our Golf Picks series.
TOUR Championship Betting Preview
The conclusion of the FedExCup Playoffs is here as the remaining 30 players head to Atlanta, Georgia for the TOUR Championship at East Lake Golf Club. The season-long points race has Scottie Scheffler (+115) starting with a two-shot lead at 10-under over Xander Schauffele (+230). The full staggered starting positions can be found here.
Last year, Viktor Hovland -- at 5-1 -- started two back and ultimately cruised to his second straight victory by five strokes over Schauffele.
All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 11:30 AM ET Wednesday.
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Course Characteristics
Par 71, 7,490 yards
These are the average rankings of the FedEx Cup winners at East Lake since 2019.
- SG: Off-the-Tee: 3.4
- SG: Approach: 8.8
- SG: Around-the-Green: 10.0
- SG: Putting: 9.0
- SG: Tee-to-Green: 4.0
- Driving Distance: 3.4
- Driving Accuracy: 11.2
Following last year's TOUR Championship, the course underwent a renovation that included adding 150 yards and turned the 14th hole into a par-5 to move this to a par 71. Overall, I don't think that the course is going to play that much differently, and that we can still rely on course history and past statistics. Off the tee, players will have to navigate narrow fairways that average less than 30 yards wide. Keeping the ball in the fairway is important due to the thick rough, but the wayward drivers don't tend to get punished as much as other places as it's difficult for even the straightest hitters to hit most of the fairways. In addition to elite drivers, I'll look to target players that hit their irons well from 200-250 yards as we tend to see a lot of approach shots in this range. Experience here helps as well, especially considering the pressure associated with how much money the golfers are playing for this week.
Exceptional at East Lake
The following players have the lowest scoring average at East Lake over the last five years.
- Xander Schauffele: 66.6
- Viktor Hovland: 67.3
- Rory McIlroy: 67.5
- Justin Thomas: 67.6
- Scottie Scheffler: 68.4
It's not easy to find a course that Schauffele likes better than East Lake as the 2017 champion has also finished runner-up here three times since 2019. Last year, he tied Hovland for the lowest gross score, and he won that honor in 2020. The oddsmakers are giving him about a 30 percent chance to become the FedExCup champion as he tries to make his case for Player of the Year honors. Meanwhile, Thomas has also shown an affinity for the event, finishing no worse than T7 in the three years starting strokes weren't implemented. Since then, he hasn't finished outside the top-5. This year will be his toughest challenge in keeping that streak going as he'll be starting with a group of five players at T26 and 10 shots off the lead at even par.
Trending off the Tee
These five players, on a per-round basis, gained the most strokes off the tee over their last 20 rounds.
- Scottie Scheffler: 0.92
- Hideki Matsuyama: 0.75
- Rory McIlroy: 0.73
- Viktor Hovland: 0.71
- Tommy Fleetwood: 0.67
Scheffler is coming off his worst performance of the season from a strokes gained perspective, finishing T33 at Castle Pines and shooting over-par for the tournament. The good news is that his driving play remains in top form, and he's going to a place he's familiar with. A TOUR Championship is one of the things still missing from Scheffler's resume after he blew a six-shot 54-hole lead here in 2022. Another player that is driving the ball well is Hovland, and he's no stranger to success in the playoffs as the defending champion. He gained just under 10 strokes with his ball striking here last year and has ranked inside the top-5 in SG: Approach in both playoff events thus far. Eight shots is probably too much for him to make up, but you can't overlook him if you're betting without starting strokes.
TOUR Championship Bets: Outright Picks
Sam Burns (18-1 Without Starting Strokes)
Burns had his best result at East Lake last year in which he fired three rounds of 67 or better en route to tying for the fourth lowest overall gross score. He's posted top-5s in both playoff events and is someone you can't count out to chase down Scheffler and Schauffele.
Hideki Matsuyama (20-1 Without Starting Strokes)
This one obviously carries some risk as Matsuyama's back flared up last week and caused him to withdraw following a six-under opening round. It's possible that he just wanted to rest up to be 100 percent for this week, and if so, he's in as good of form as anyone.
TOUR Championship Bets: Top-5 Wagers
Tony Finau (5-1 With Starting Strokes)
This will be the eighth year in a row Finau has qualified for the TOUR Championship, and he's been solid here recently with seven straight rounds of 68 or better. Driving it long and relatively straight on top of being third in SG: Approach this season is a good recipe for success.
Byeong Hun An (14-1 With Starting Strokes)
An will start at two-under in his first TOUR Championship appearance, and these are some lofty odds for a guy that ranks 19th in SG: Off-the-Tee and fourth in driving distance this season. An closed with three under-par rounds at Castle Pines and has four top-5s this year.
TOUR Championship Bets: Head-to-Head Matchup
Adam Scott (+100) over Russell Henley
Scott nearly made it three wins in a row for me last week but it wasn't meant to be. Nevertheless, the 44-year-old is playing some of the best golf we've seen from him in quite some time with top-10s in three of his last four events. Henley is at a disadvantage at the long venue with his lack of distance, and he'll face a lot of long approaches.
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