This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.
AT&T PEBBLE BEACH PRO-AM
Purse: $9M
Winner's Share: $1.62M
FedEx Cup Points: 500 to the Winner
Location: Pebble Beach, Calif.
Courses: Pebble Beach Golf Links, Spyglass Hill GC, Monterey Peninsula CC
Yardage: 6,972 (Pebble Beach)
Par: 72
2022 champion: Tom Hoge
Tournament Preview
In a few weeks, AT&T will become the longest current title sponsor of a PGA Tour event. That's because after next month's Honda Classic, Honda is bailing. Both companies have been sponsors for almost four decades, and both continue to see their tournaments plagued by terrible fields. Honda has had enough. What about AT&T? The Tour had a chance to show their commitment to their longtime partners by giving each of them a designated event this year. Neither got one.
That leaves Pebble Beach tournament organizers with yet another woeful field. Jordan Spieth, who as an AT&T pitchman pretty much has to show up, headlines a 156-man contingent that features just three top-25 golfers and a mere seven top-50s. The 2017 champion and No. 16-ranked golfer will be joined by No. 10 Matt Fitzpatrick and No. 11 Viktor Hovland, plus No. 28 Seamus Power, No. 29 and defending champion Tom Hoge, No. 32 Kevin Kisner and No. 43 Kurt Kitayama. Yeesh. Outside the top 50 but with more star power most of those other guys are Webb Simpson, Matt Kuchar and Justin Rose, and let's throw in local product and 2021 runner-up Maverick McNealy just because.
Where's Jason Day, you ask? Good question. Day had come the past 10 years and in seven of them finished top-7. He was automatic. Imagine a player outside the top 100 in the world blowing off a huge payday and a big chunk of world-rankings points. But because of the PGA Tour's Player Impact Program, Day, who finished 18th out of 20 in the PIP, is mandated to play in the bigger tournaments. Next week is Phoenix and then Riviera. Day just played the Amex and the Farmers, where he also has a great history and again finished top-10, so competing four or five weeks in a row was out of the question. Pebble was the odd man out, and it's a real gut punch for AT&T and tournament organizers, even more so now that Day is playing his best golf in years.
In fairness to the Tour, the Pebble Beach tournament, despite being played at one of the world's iconic golf courses, is not for everyone. There are three days of six-hour pro-am rounds. And the weather is often dicey in Northern California this time of year, as it will be this week. Still, the Tour needs all the friends it can get in these litigious times, making its treatment of AT&T and Honda all the more questionable.
Besides Day, Patrick Cantlay had been a recent regular. He's not here either. Fitzgerald is becoming a regular. Hovland is back for the first time since 2020. Interestingly, he won the 2018 U.S. Amateur at Pebble.
As if this tournament doesn't face enough adversity, there's more. It also finds itself opposite the annual Saudi International. Last year, a boatload of top names -- Phil Mickelson, Dustin Johnson, etc. -- chose to head to the Middle East. This year, after so many guys went to LIV Golf, Cameron Young is the only noteworthy golfer opting for the Asian Tour event.
Anyway, let's get on with the task at hand.
One good thing for DFS players this week is that the cut of 60 and ties comes after 54 holes. So it's an opportunity to take some risks with your lineup because not getting 6-for-6 would cost you only 18 holes instead of 36. In other words, risk taking will be just a little less risky. With so few top names in the field, most if not all of them will be highly owned, so you'll have to find your lineup separation further downstream.
The golfers and their amateur partners will play Pebble Beach, Spyglass Hill (7,041, par-72) and Monterey Peninsula (6,957, par-71) once each before the remaining pros and the 25 top amateur teams play Pebble Beach on Sunday. For such a short course, Pebble surely has some teeth and the potential to be a bear.
Three years ago, it ranked as the eighth-hardest track on Tour. Incredibly, four holes were among the 50 toughest on Tour. In order: the 202-yard 12th, the 504-yard 9th, the 428-yard 8th and 195-yard 5th. That doesn't include two of the harder par-5s on Tour. We're talking about the 580-yard 14th and the picturesque 543-yard 18th.
What makes such a short course so hard? For one, the weather. Also, the greens are the smallest the golfers will see all year, averaging 3,500 square feet, almost half the size of the Tour average. That calls for highly accurate iron play and, barring that, great scrambling. Those tiny Pebble greens with their confounding poa annua grass are also well protected by bunkers, with almost 120 total on the course. Spyglass greens (averaging 5,000 square feet) and Monterey Peninsula (6,000) both also feature poa. For the past two years, Spyglass was actually the hardest course in the rotation -- and Pebble was the easiest. So a strategy that we recommended last week at the Farmers, playing a Showdown game and loading up on golfers playing the easier course that day, isn't viable this week. Unless you see a clear-cut separation on Thursday that could be useful on Friday.
We won't focus much on the other two courses, but it's noteworthy that last year, the par-4, 520-yard eighth at Spyglass was one of the hardest holes on the entire PGA Tour, as was the 226-yard seventh at Monterey Peninsula.
Now for the weather. It won't be great. Temperatures will not hit 60 all week. There's at least a chance of rain every day, with the best chance on Sunday. A bit of good news is that the wind is supposed to be manageable, but of course that change at a moment's notice.
Pebble Beach History: The tournament has been around since Bing Crosby got the ol' Clambake going at Rancho Santa Fe outside San Diego in 1937 and Sam Snead came away with the $500 first-place check. It moved to the Monterey Peninsula in 1947.
Pebble Beach Celebrities: Besides the usual bunch including Bill Murray, Ray Romano, Darius Rucker and Jake Owen, it will be a quarterback-fest with Aaron Rodgers, Josh Allen, Steve Young and Alex Smith on hand. The baseball world will be represented by soon-to-be Hall of Famer Buster Posey.
Key Stats to Winning at Pebble Beach
The most important indicators every week are current form and course history. "Key Stats" follow in importance.
• Strokes Gained: Approach/Greens in Regulation/Approach from 125-150 yards
• Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green/Scrambling
• Strokes Gained: Putting
• Driving Accuracy/Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
Past Champions
2022 - Tom Hoge
2021 - Daniel Berger
2020 - Nick Taylor
2019 - Phil Mickelson
2018 - Ted Potter Jr.
2017 - Jordan Spieth
2016 - Vaughn Taylor
2015 - Brandt Snedeker
2014 - Jimmy Walker
2013 - Brandt Snedeker
Champion's Profile
In the past seven years, every winning score was between 17- and 19-under. That is a very tight window. Pebble is a second-shot golf course. Getting on the green is always harder when the greens are small, so superior wedge play is paramount -- both from the fairway and around the greens.
In eight of the past nine years, no winner ranked in the top-20 in driving distance. Hoge (19-under) wasn't particularly accurate, either, yet he ranked seventh in greens in regulation, fourth in Strokes Gained: Approach, third in SG: Tee-to-Green and third in SG: Putting. Runner-up Spieth led the field in both SG: Approach and Tee-to-Green. Two years ago, Berger won at 18-under and ranked third in greens in regulation. Runner-up Maverick McNealy ranked third. Three years ago, Taylor (19-under) ranked third in GIR and second in SG: Putting.
Clearly, GIR is critical. So is experience. This tournament and the format takes some getting used to. Lastly, and perhaps it's coincidence more than anything else, there have been only two non-U.S. winners of this tournament since 1965 (though Graeme McDowell did win the U.S. Open at Pebble in 2010). The over/under on the winning score as set by golfodds.com was 268.5, which is 18.5 shots under par.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS
Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap
Tier 1 Values
Jordan Spieth - $10,600 (Winning odds at the DraftKings Sportsbook: +1200)
Spieth does not have as many great weeks as you might think. He hasn't had a top-10 since the Open Championship. But he does have a lot of good weeks -- four top-20s in seven starts since the Open. Pebble Beach is one of Spieth's go-to tracks. He was runner-up to Hoge last year, third the year before and won it all in 2017. Spieth is the top guy on the DK board but at only $10,600. He'll be highly owned.
Matt Fitzpatrick - $10,100 (+1100)
As mentioned above, this tournament is not for everyone. It can take some getting used to -- the slow rounds, the weather. Fitzpatrick missed the cut in 2019 and tied for 60th in 2020, then came back last year and tied for sixth. Of course, he's a far better golfer now, and he is also the betting favorite. Fitzpatrick has been idle since tying for seventh at the Tournament of Champions a month ago.
Tom Hoge - $10,000 (+2200)
Hoge burst upon the scene a year ago when he won for the first time on Tour. Truth be told, he had been playing well for months. And since then, he's shown it was not an aberration, as he has continued to climb in the world rankings, now at No. 29. Hoge tied for third at the Tournament of Champions at the beginning of the year. The hallmark of his game is his iron play. He is ranked first on Tour in Strokes Gained: Approach. Perfect for this week.
Andrew Putnam - $9,700 (+2500)
Putnam was hot in the fall, then opened 2023 in similar fashion with a tie for fourth at the Sony. A year ago, he tied for sixth at Pebble -- at a time he wasn't otherwise playing well. Putnam's big weakness is lack of length, but that won't be an issue this week. You might be able to pivot to Putnam to find lower ownership than the three other guys in Tier 1. But finding truly low ownership might be next to impossible, since the field is so weighted at the top.
Tier 2 Values
Maverick McNealy - $9,600 (+1800)
We could see a lot of DFS players and even one-and-doners turning to the Northern California native this week. That's what happens when you're the cheapest price among the favorites and you finish fifth here in 2020 and runner-up in 2021. That remains McNealy's top showing on the PGA Tour, and it would not be a surprise to see his maiden title come this week. He does not have great approach numbers, but he is ranked second on Tour in Strokes Gained: Putting.
Alex Smalley - $8,700 (+4000)
Smalley missed the cut last year in his Pebble debut, which is a bit of a concern. But he's a far better player now and also has a better idea of what he's in for with the heavy pro-am emphasis. Smalley is ranked 36th on Tour in greens in regulation. After closing the fall with a pair of top-fives, he turned in a top-25 at the Amex and made the cut last week at the Farmers.
Trey Mullinax - $8,100 (+5500)
The book on Mullinax is that he's a bomb-and-gouge guy. At least it used to be. Now on the other side of 30, perhaps he's mellowing. He still hits it long, but not quite as long -- he's ranked 20th in driving distance. Even through all the years of bombing, Mullinax toned it down for Pebble, making all four cuts with two top-25s and a T28 a year ago. He tied for 31st last week at the Farmers (where he ranked 15th in driving distance).
Nick Taylor - $8,000 (+6000)
There are a lot of course where Taylor doesn't play well. Pebble Beach isn't one of them. His second PGA Tour win came there in 2020, and he's made the cut in six of his past seven visits, with a tie for 14th a year ago. Taylor is even playing somewhat decently coming in. He had a top-10 at the Fortinet to open the 2022-23 season, then another two weeks ago at the Amex. He's ranked top-40 on Tour in SG: Approach, Around-the-Green and Tee-to-Green.
Tier 3 Values
Nick Hardy - $7,700 (+6000)
Hardy is an interesting guy to keep an eye on. He just fulfilled his major medical extension with a T44 last week at the Farmers. In his past 16 PGA Tour starts, he's made 13 cuts. One of them was a tie for 14th at the U.S. Open. Parts of Hardy's game border on elite -- he's ranked fifth in SG: Approach, 25th in GIR and 23rd in SG: Tee-to-Green. Conversely, other parts of his game need a lot of work -- his wedge play and putting. Hardy missed the cut last year in his Pebble debut.
Lanto Griffin - $7,600 (+9000)
Griffin is making his way back from injury. Last week was his first PGA Tour start since the John Deere over the summer. He tied for 37th at the Farmers -- and that was with a final-round 77. Griffin ranked 15th in the Farmers field in greens in regulation. He was 16th here a year ago and ninth in 2020. A former top-50 golfer, Griffin might slip under the radar this week.
Russell Knox - $7,500 (+7000)
Knox is an accurate iron player who should play well at Pebble Beach -- and he does. He's made the cut four of the past five years with three top-15s, though last year he tied for 33rd. Knox has made his past seven cuts overall, including at the Sony and the Amex. Now 37, the Scotsman is ranked sixth on Tour in SG: Approach.
Troy Merritt - $7,200 (+11000)
You could definitely call Merritt a horse for this course. He's been playing decently overall -- he's ranked 105th OWGR -- but he was fourth at Pebble last year, 16th the year before, 25th the year before than and eighth in 2018. If you'd like to see some stats, we're too afraid to show you where Merritt ranks in greens in regulation. But that's pretty standard for him, yet he somehow manages to deliver here year after year. Sometimes, a course just suits a guy's eye.
Long-Shot Values
Matthias Schwab - $6,900 (+30000)
The Vanderbilt alum by way of Austria is a short hitter but is accurate, helping him rank 64th on Tour in greens in regulation. Schwab just missed a top-25 last time out at the Amex (T26) and has had some other, albeit sporadic, good results. He was 21st at Mayakoba, 16th at the John Deere and top-10 early last year at both the Valero and the Honda. Schwab made the cut in his Pebble debut a year ago (T49).
Satoshi Kodaira - $6,800 (+30000)
There are 213 golfers ranked by the PGA Tour in driving distance. the 5-foot-10, 150-pounder comes in at No. 210, averaging a mere 278.5 yards. Kodaira and other short hitters normally start out with such a disadvantage. But not this week. The veteran Japanese once ranked 27th in the world is coming off a made cut last week at the Farmers -- pretty impressive considering the length of Torrey Pines. Kodaira is ranked 17th on Tour in driving accuracy, 63rd in SG: Approach and 47th in SG: Putting. That will work nicely at Pebble, where he tied for 33rd last year.
Paul Haley II - $6,600 (+50000)
The 35-year-old Haley is bit of a feel-good story: He's back on the PGA Tour for the first time in a decade, since 2013. The Korn Ferry grad is also one of the highest-ranked guys priced in the $6000s -- he's 165th OWGR. That's in large part to a win and a two runners-up last season on the Korn Ferry Tour. Still, Haley has made six of nine PGA Tour cuts this season, including at the Amex and Farmers. Like the two guys above him here among the long shots, he's a short hitter who won't look so short this week.
Brice Garnett - $6,500 (+40000)
Garnett has missed four straight Pebble cuts -- but remember, that's after 54 holes. So we're willing to gamble. He's also missed his past two cuts coming in -- but, and here's another but, before that he finished T21 at the Sony, another shorter track where accuracy matters. The 39-year-old Garnett doesn't have terrible numbers once he leaves the tee box: He is ranked 81st in SG: Approach, 103rd Around-the-Green and 30th in Putting.
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