DraftKings PGA DFS Picks: BMW Championship Cash and GPP Strategy

This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.

BMW CHAMPIONSHIP

Purse: $20M
Winner's Share: $3.6M
FedEx Cup Points: 2,000 to the winner
Location: Olympia Fields, Ill.
Course: Olympia Fields Country Club (North Course)
Yardage: 7,366
Par: 70
2022 champion: Patrick Cantlay (Wilmington Country Club)

Tournament Preview

Only two tournaments and 50 golfers remain in the PGA Tour season. Those who have made it this far have received some huge benefits with more to come -- in other words, money and future money. The biggest perk is that all 50 have automatically qualified for the eight newly-named Signature Events on next year's schedule -- all with ginormous purses.

But as is always the case in sports (and life), it's not enough. They all want to win the BMW Championship, they all want to finish the week top-30 in the FedExCup Standings to qualify for next week's season-ending TOUR Championship, where even more riches and perks await.

Lucas Glover is the talk of the golf world after winning two straight tournaments, which has thrust him into the conversation not only to win the FedEx Cup but perhaps claim a spot on the U.S. Ryder Cup team. He beat all the big boys last week at TPC Southwind, and he will face off with them again this week at Olympia Fields. Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler and Jon Rahm are the top three golfers on the DraftKings board, in that order, and fourth is Patrick Cantlay, whom Glover beat in a playoff last week. Cantlay is the two-time defending champion, though those tournaments were played on different tracks.

Unlike the other two playoff events, the BMW Championship rotates courses. We saw Olympia Fields just three years ago, when Rahm and Dustin Johnson put on a putting duel for the ages. You may recall the incredible finish, when Johnson sank a 43-foot birdie putt on 18 to stunningly force a playoff, only for Rahm to one-up him with a 66-footer for birdie on the first extra hole to come away with the title. Despite all those fireworks, there were no roars from the gallery -- there was no gallery, as the world was still gripped by a pandemic.

Rahm and Johnson finished at a mere 4-under-par, two of only five guys -- out of 69 -- who finished under par on a track that heavily favored the longest hitters. Four of those five under-par guys -- also Hideki Matsuyama and Tony Finau -- finished top-10 in driving distance for the week, and the fifth, Joaquin Niemann, was close by at 14th. Rahm shot 75-71-66-64 without a double bogey.

Before 2020, we hadn't seen Olympia Fields, a storied 108-year-old American golf club, for many years. The North Course finds itself on most U.S. top-100 lists, sometimes even top-50. It was designed in 1923 by two-time Open Championship winner Willie Park Jr. and has undergone only minimal changes through the years -- mostly in regards to length.

It has played host to two PGA Championships and two U.S. Opens, plus five Western Opens. None of those took place even remotely recently -- the 2003 Open won by Jim Furyk is the only one even close -- but they did play the U.S. Amateur there eight years ago. Bryson DeChambeau won it. There are a number of guys from that field who are in this one, too, and made their way to varying points in the stroke- and match-play tournament. Rahm was a a quarterfinalist who dusted Cameron Young 7 and 6 in the Round of 32. Others were Sepp Straka and Denny McCarthy (Round of 32; Beau Hossler (Round of 64); and Scheffler, Collin Morikawa and Cam Davis (MC). There's also an annual college tournament that takes place at Olympia Fields, the Fighting Illini Invitational. Just about all the top guys have been in it, including Rickie Fowler, who holds a share of the course record. More on that in a minute.

The golfers will begin their rounds with one of the two par-5s -- both of which are 600-yarders -- and it's the longest hole on the course at 626 yards. Then come two of the seven par-4s that exceed 450 yards. So it starts very long, and before they make the turn they will also encounter the mammoth 251-yard eighth hole. The course closes with a 510-yard brute that features water on the approach. In 2020, Nos. 8 and 18 -- along with the 417-yard 5th -- were the hardest holes and among the hardest all season on Tour. Only four holes played under par, including both of the 600-yard par-5s. The front and the back played almost identically difficult.

Olympia Fields is long but pretty straightforward, with tall rough, elevation changes, many fairway bunkers, hundreds of oak trees and Butterfield Creek, which meanders its way through the property and crosses seven holes, including Nos. 12 and 14 twice each.

Here are a couple of quotes from unnamed panelists who determined a top-100 ranking for Golf Digest a few years back:

• "Olympia Fields boasts several stretches of holes that are relentlessly demanding. Most drives are challenged by fairway bunkers, water hazards or strategically placed trees. If played from the wrong angles, bogeys aplenty."
• "A beast of a course that requires thought and commitment on every shot, especially right out of the gates on holes 1 through 4."

That's important information, but so is this from longstanding Director of Grounds Sam MacKenzie: "The putting greens will defend this golf course," MacKenzie told NBC 5 in Chicago before the 2020 BMW. "These players can just hit it out of sight and so forth like that. So the emphasis on the greens, which has always been a strong point of any golf course, will have to take on an even greater proportion than before." The bentgrass/poa greens are medium size, averaging 5,200ish square feet. They will run a speedy 12.5 on the Stimpmeter. Just about the entire course is bent/poa. There are 91 bunkers and two water hazards -- but they come into play on eight holes.

Now for lineup construction. History shows us that the majority of playoff events, including this one, are won by the top 10-to-15 guys -- the Schefflers, Rahms and McIlroys, etc. We want to get as many of them as possible into our lineup, at least two and maybe even three since some will dip into the low $9,000s or even upper $8,000s. But since the field is 50 and there is no cut, we have no reservations about turning to the lower-priced guys to fill out the lineup. The good news is everyone will get four rounds. We'll add three guys from the low-$7,000s on down -- and down goes all the way to $5500 this week -- and hope they can sneak their way into a high or semi-high finish.

As for the weather, there's a chance of some showers Thursday morning, but with the small field they likely will have little effect. Otherwise, the week will be dry with high temperatures around 80 the first two days before climbing to 90 on Sunday, and light to moderate wind.

BMW Championship factoids: This is the third oldest golf tournament in the world, having started in 1899 as the Western Open. Only the Open Championship (1860) and U.S. Open (1895) are older. This will be the 119th edition. The tournament used to be exclusive to the Chicago area before the PGA Tour started a traveling road show with this venerable event. It's back in the Midwest for the first time since 2020 at Olympia Fields. BMW came on board as the title sponsor when the FedExCup Playoffs began in 2007.

Fun Olympia Fields factoids: The course record is 63, and it's held by the eclectic mix of Vijay Singh, Fowler and Thomas Detry. Singh did it in the second round of the 2003 Open, but what about the other two? Well, for Fowler it was during his first victory as an Oklahoma State Cowboy, in only his second college start, in the 2007 Fighting Illini Invitational. Detry did it as a senior for Illinois and finished second in the 2015 FII. In most articles we read, there was a mention of the enormous clubhouse, some 110,000 square feet that is said to be the largest clubhouse in the world. Some have even pegged it at 200,000 square feet. It features an 80-foot clock tower outside and the dining room reportedly seats 800.

Key Stats to Winning at Olympia Fields

The most important indicators every week are current form and course history. "Key Stats" follow in importance.

• Driving Distance/Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
• Strokes Gained: Approach/Greens in Regulation/Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
• Strokes Gained: Putting
• Par-4 Efficiency: 450-500 yards
• Bogey Avoidance

Past Champions

2022 - Patrick Cantlay (Wilmington Country Club)
2021 - Patrick Cantlay (Caves Valley)
2020 - Jon Rahm (Olympia Fields)
2019 - Justin Thomas (Medinah)
2018 - Keegan Bradley (Aronimink)
2017 - Marc Leishman (Conway Farms)
2016 - Dustin Johnson (Crooked Stick)
2015 - Jason Day (Conway Farms)
2014 - Billy Horschel (Cherry Hills)
2013 - Zach Johnson (Conway Farms)

Champion's Profile

The first thing that jumps out is all the times that top golfers have won this event over the past decade, save Bradley and Horschel, who we'd put a rung or two below the others. Expect the same this week, especially since the field is at its smallest number ever. In 2020, Rahm ranked seventh in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, ninth in Approach, 13th in Around-the-Green, sixth in Putting and sixth in Tee-to-Green. He ranked sixth in driving distance, plus -- and this is important -- also 13th in driving accuracy. He tied for second in greens in regulation. That all adds up to a masterful performance, but after all that, he got to only 4 under par. He had 18 birdies, 14 bogeys and, again importantly, zero doubles. He played 3-under on the two par-5s. Johnson fell to Rahm in a playoff. He also was great off the tee -- T4 in distance, T18 in accuracy. He ranked first in SG: Approach, fifth in GIR and ninth in putting. That set of stats will win tournaments many weeks. Matsuyama and Niemann were two strokes back. Matsuyama ranked 10th in distance and Niemann 14th, but he also led the field in GIR. Finau was the only other guy under par, at 1-under, and was T4 in driving distance and third in putting. All were great off the tee and from tee to green, which makes perfect sense on a long par-70. The over/under from golfodds.com was set at 272.5 -- 7.5 strokes under par.

DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS

Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap

Tier 1 Values

Rory McIlroy - $12,100 (Winning odds at the DraftKings Sportsbook: +650)
This a hefty number. But McIlroy is the top-priced option for a reason: He's playing better than the other guys in the Big 3, Scheffler and Rahm. McIlroy has not finished outside of the top 10 in three months, spanning eight events. So often it seems like he's not getting it done, but he's just held to a higher standard than anybody else. On a course where driving distance is a huge advantage, McIlroy should shine -- especially on a low-scoring track where missed putts sometimes leave him a shot or two off the lead come Sunday evening.

Patrick Cantlay - $10,500 (+1000)
Cantlay isn't here because he's the two-time defending champion -- those wins came at other courses. But he did tie for 12th here in 2020, is coming off a big week in Memphis and has repeatedly shown he plays well at this time of year. Cantlay ranks first on Tour in Total Driving, is fourth in SG: Off-the-Tee and fifth in Tee-to-Green. Maybe a perfect fit for this golf course. Cantlay ranks sixth in our model, below McIlroy and the next two guys here.

Viktor Hovland - $10,300 (+1600)
Hovland tied for 13th last week, but don't be deceived. He was contending for the lead on the front nine and only a bogey on 18 kept him from tying for sixth. Like Cantlay, Hovland is ranked in the top-10 on Tour in Total Driving, SG: Off-the-Tee and Tee-to-Green. He's nearly $2,000 cheaper than McIlroy and our most cost-effective five-figure recommendation.

Tommy Fleetwood - $9,700 (+2000)
It's almost unfathomable that Fleetwood came so close to his first PGA Tour victory -- yet again -- without the best part of his game working last week. One of the best chippers on Tour, he ranked 55th in the 70-man Memphis field in SG: Around-the-Green. And he missed the playoff by a stroke. Fleetwood now has top-10s in five of his past six starts. He is third in our model, ranking first in bogey avoidance over his past 24 rounds.

Tyrrell Hatton - $9,000 (+2200)
It's harder to find lineup separation in a small field. Hatton could that, especially coming off last week's T43, which will surely turn some people off. But one meh result can't mar a terrific season. Hatton is proficient on long, hard courses -- he was top-5 at both Bay Hill and Quail Hollow, and 12th at the Memorial. He is eighth in our model, ranking in the top-10 in this field over the past 24 rounds in both driving distance and putting, 12th in par- 450-500 and top-5 in bogey avoidance. He tied for 16th here three years ago.

Tier 2 Values

Russell Henley - $8,200 (+3500)
The $8,000s are a dead zone for us this week, filled with Ryder Cup wannabes -- Finau, Sam Burns, Young -- who have largely been underperforming. Henley has been playing better than all of them, just missing two weeks ago at the Wyndham and tying for sixth last week in Memphis. Olympia Fields is very long and Henley is very short. He finished 68th out of 70 in driving distance last week but still managed a top-10. Henley leads the Tour in driving accuracy and is among the best at bogey avoidance.

Cam Davis - $7,800 (+5000)
After missing a fifth straight cut at Bay Hill in March, Davis fell out of the top-100 in the world rankings. Since then, he's compiled six top-10s, including in his last three starts, to reach a career-best No. 49 OWGR. His T6 last week in Memphis secured enough FedEx Cup points to qualify for the BMW. At the core of his turnaround is strong iron play -- he's ranked 10th in this field in SG: Approach over his past 24 rounds and 14th in par-4 450-500. Being a long hitter -- ranked 19th in driving distance on Tour and 19th in SG: Off-the-Tee -- will also help this week.

Byeong Hun An - $7,500 (+4000)
An returned to the PGA Tour this season seemingly with a simple plan: Hit the tee ball as far as he can no matter where it goes. So far, it's working. An is ranked fifth on Tour in driving distance and 173rd in accuracy -- and he's having a stellar season, ranked 38th in the point standings. He ranked 60th of 70 guys in Memphis in fairways hit, yet was top-25 in greens in regulation. An tied for 12th here in 2020.

Adam Schenk - $6,500 (+10000)
Schenk is having a phenomenal season, one that won't end this week but next week at the Tour Championship. He enters the BMW at No. 20 in the point standings after last week's tie for sixth. It wasn't the first time Schenk went toe-to-toe with all the best players in the game, having previously tied for seventh at the Memorial, another one of his six top-10s on the season. He is one of the best iron players in the field, ranking seventh in SG: Approach over his past 24 rounds.

Eric Cole - $6,300 (+10000)
Cole is almost a shoo-in to win Rookie of the Year. He's the only rookie still standing, and playing. Despite being severely challenged off the tee, Cole is one of the top plays in the $6000s. He is ranked 35th on the season in both SG: Approach and Around-the-Green, and 14th in SG: Putting. He tied for 31st last week in Memphis and, even though this field is only 50, a similar result would justify his price.

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