This article is part of our FanDuel PGA DFS Picks series.
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
Courses: Pebble Beach Golf Links (6,816 yards, par 72) [Host], Spyglass Hill GC (7,035 yards, par 72), Monterey Peninsula CC, Shore Course (6,958 yards, par 71)
Purse: $7,800,000
Winner: $1,404,000 and 500 FedExCup points
Tournament Preview
The Pebble Beach Pro-Am is essentially The American Express on steroids. The field, golf courses, and celebrities are all better than we saw just a few weeks ago in the California desert. It will follow the same type of format with each player and amateur partner playing rounds at three different courses before a cut is made Saturday evening. Every player that makes the cut will play a final round contested at historical Pebble Beach Golf Links on Sunday. The fairways will be widened and greens will be much more receptive than we saw last June when the U.S. Open was contested here. Phil Mickelson will be both looking to defend and notch his sixth Pebble Beach Pro-Am victory, which would break a tie with Mark O'Meara for the most wins in event history. Dustin Johnson, Jason Day, Brandt Snedeker, and Jordan Spieth are all loyal participants that will be looking to add to their strong records at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Temperatures will peak in the low-60's, but there will be no threat of rain through the four days at the Monterey Peninsula. Winds will be mild on Thursday and Friday, but they are likely to kick up over the weekend.
Recent Champions
2019 – Phil Mickelson
2018 – Ted Potter, Jr.
2017 – Jordan Spieth
2016 – Vaughn Taylor
2015 – Brandt Snedeker
2014 – Jimmy Walker
2013 – Brandt Snedeker
2012 – Phil Mickelson
2011 – D.A. Points
2010 – Dustin Johnson
Key Stats to Victory
SG: Approach
Scrambling
SG: Putting
GIR Percentage
Champion's Profile
With three courses that are short by today's Tour standards and having to be set up to accommodate for the amateurs, we should see a winning score approach 20-under-par. The main defense is typically the size of the greens, especially at Pebble Beach, so precise iron play and being able to control your ball out of the fairway is the top priority. Another common theme with a lot of former winners here is having a very strong short game to get it up and down even with greens that might be running away from you. With all 54 greens being poa annua, putting is going to be an inexact science. Everyone is going to miss a handful of short putts this week, but those that strike putts consistently solid are going to be rewarded in the long run. I think the last thing to keep in mind is experience. How to play these courses and experience dealing with six hour rounds takes awhile to get accustomed to, which is part of the reason why the top of the leaderboard on Sunday is typically chalk full of wily veterans.
FanDuel Value Picks
The Chalk
Dustin Johnson, ($12,400)
This is one of Johnson's best events on Tour. He is the second all-time money leader in AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am history with two wins (2009, 2010) and six other top-seven finishes. Johnson has opened up 2020 looking much more like his usual self after struggling near the end of last season. He finished T7 at Kapalua and then runner-up last week in Saudi. In this field Johnson is worth the hefty price tag this week.
Paul Casey, ($11,700)
Casey is just the ideal type of player for success at these courses. He is a top-tier ball-striker, ranking top-10 a season ago in SG: Off-the-tee, SG: Approach, SG: Tee-to-green, and GIR percentage. After a T8 here back in 2018, Casey finished runner-up last year at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. His short game was perhaps the most impressive part of his game in last year's edition, ranking second in scrambling for the week.
Jason Day, ($11,500)
Unlike a lot of the players who have had success here, Day has never been a great iron player. Instead he has gotten it done with a world-class short game and a putter that has been top-three on Tour over the last decade. Day owns six finishes inside the top-six, two other top-15's, and has never missed a cut in 10 starts at Pebble Beach. He is coming off a T16 at Torrey Pines two weeks ago.
Brandt Snedeker, ($11,200)
Snedeker has gotten it done much the same way as Day. He is only 89th in SG: Tee-to-green, but is top-15 in both SG: Around and SG: Putting this season. The Vanderbilt product did miss the cut in Scottsdale last week, but he gets back to poa annua greens this week, where he has his greatest advantage. Snedeker is a two-time winner of this event (2013, 2015) and has three other top-25's in the last decade.
Longer Shots with Value
Max Homa, ($9,800)
Homa has found his groove as of late, going T5-T25-T48-T9-T6 over his last five starts worldwide. All parts of his game looked solid last week in Scottsdale, ranking 13th in SG: Tee-to-green and T6 in putts per GIR. Homa finished T10 a year ago at Pebble.
Jim Furyk, ($9,600)
He might be nearing 50 years of age, but Furyk is still one of the most consistent ball strikers around. This season he ranks 11th in SG: Approach and 23rd in SG: Tee-to-green. He also is first in driving accuracy and GIR percentage. These courses are all short enough for Furyk to contend and he is almost always giving himself opportunities by playing out of the short grass. He finished a solid T14 in this event a year ago and has only missed the cut twice in 21 starts.
Lucas Glover, ($9,400)
Glover hasn't quite put it together this season after posting 16 top-20's last season. He has made five-of-eight cuts with a best finish of T9. Pebble Beach might be the perfect spot for Glover to get his year kick started. He has gone T11-T7 in his last two starts here. Glover is another consistent ball striker with an underrated short game.
Mark Hubbard, ($8,400)
Hubbard surged with a Saturday 64, but lost ground with a 72 on Sunday at last week's WMPO. His whole game was solid, ranking top-10 in driving accuracy, scrambling, and putts per GIR. It has been a resurgent season for the 30-year-old who has already notched four top 15 finishes and only missed two cuts in 11 starts.
Strategy Tips for this week
Based on a Standard $60K Salary Cap
The options with both good course history and solid recent form are fairly thin this week compared to a week ago in Scottsdale. It puts an emphasis on nailing your studs, which is why I will be taking at least two of the top four options mentioned above. Other five figure players I might take a shot with would be Viktor Hovland, Branden Grace, and Greame McDowell. Both Grace and McDowell have won this season on the European Tour and Hovland has good course history at Pebble, winning the U.S. Amateur here in 2018 and grabbling low-amateur honors with a T12 at last year's U.S. Open. I'm also avoiding Matt Kuchar, who only has one top-10 here in 13 starts, as well as Phil Mickelson and Jordan Spieth, who both have good track records here, but are just too unpredictable at the moment.
