Genesis Invitational Preview: Rory's the Top Dog

The PGA Tour heads to Riviera Country Club this week as the West Coast Swing ends with a bang. The bang is in reference to the star power on hand this week. The biggest name in golf is here, the best major golfer on the planet, the new No. 1 and then there's Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas, Dustin Johnson, Tony Finau, Xander Schauffele ... OK, you get the point. I'm not sure who's missing, but you have to wonder why anyone would skip this event. 

Riviera is the course this week and has been for as long as I can remember. It's a great course, with one of the best finishing holes on the PGA Tour. Riviera can play difficult, but if you want to win, you generally need to get deep into the teens under par. Although there have been some surprises over the years — see James Hahn in 2015 — the list of winners is filled with generally recognizable names. You'll notice that many of the bigger names in the field have very impressive track records at this event, which means it's not a good week to stray from the beaten path.  

This Week: Genesis Invitational – Riviera Country Club, Pacific Palisades, Calif.

Last Year: J.B. Holmes shot a final-round 70 on his way to a one-stroke victory over Justin Thomas.

FAVORITES

Rory McIlroy (8-1)

With a field as stacked as this one, I'm a little surprised that McIlroy is atop the odds chart this week, but that's the public influence at work. McIlroy's track record here isn't bad; he has a T4 on his resume, but that's his only top-10 in three starts. McIlroy is a threat to win anytime he tees it up, but at 8-1 he doesn't have a lot of value this week.               

Jon Rahm (10-1)  

Rahm has been one of the hottest golfers on the planet the last few months, but like McIlroy, his odds seem a little short this week as his track record doesn't give us much to go on. Rahm's first start here, last year, resulted in a top-10, which is great — but is that enough to merit second-favorite status? At this price, there's just not enough value with Rahm, considering who he'll have to beat.            

Justin Thomas (10-1)

Finally, we get to a favorite who's actually done something here. Thomas' track record is a bit scattered, but he's figured it out the last two years as he's posted a T9 and a runner-up. Of the three favorites, JT has the best mix of form and track record at this event. He mysteriously missed the cut at the Sony Open, but he sandwiched that MC, with a win and a T3.                        

MID-TIER GOLFERS                   

Dustin Johnson (12-1)

Just outside the group of three favorites, sits Johnson, who really has a strong track record here. He got off to a good start Last week at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am, but he faded on the weekend, which is why he's not the favorite this week. If he had played well on the weekend, he'd be the favorite this week. That, however, just means his odds are inflated and he has value. DJ has eight top-10s here in 12 starts.                  

Bubba Watson (22-1)

When considering Watson, you simply need to check two boxes. The first: does he have a good track record? Watson likes certain courses and dislikes others. If he likes it, he's in play. He likes this course. The second box: is his form close enough that if he gets on a course he likes he can take advantage? Check again. Watson has had some bad weeks here, but he's also won this event THREE times! Interesting note, every made cut here has resulted in a top-20 for Watson.               

Tony Finau (28-1)

Finau let one slip away at the Phoenix Open, but there's no denying that his form is solid. Whether  he can close when it counts, well, that's still a question. He should hit the ground running this week as his play at this event has impressed the last two years. Finau posted a T15 last year at this event and a runner-up the year prior.                  

LONGSHOTS

Phil Mickelson (40-1)  

He's certainly not reliable anymore, but if you are looking for long odds on a golfer capable of winning this week, then Mickelson is your guy. Entering last week, it seemed farfetched that Mickelson would win anytime soon on the PGA Tour, but there he was Sunday afternoon, within range of the leader. He didn't close, of course, but he was in the mix. Considering he's won this event twice, he's certainly a threat this week.      

J.B. Holmes (80-1)  

Is Holmes likely to win this week? Obviously not. But 80-1? Those odds are usually reserved for golfers with no history at an event. Holmes won this event last year and has made the cut in 12 of 13 starts. His form isn't terrible either, which you might expect from someone with such long odds. Holmes has had trouble closing recently, but he's put himself in the mix from time to time, and if he does it again this week, who knows?                  

ONE AND DONE GOLFER

Highly Owned Pick: Bubba Watson - There are two ways to go about this week. You can take a big gun to battle all the other big guns or you can go with slightly less fire power with the hope that said player will jump up this week and do something special. I'm in the latter category, as with so many big guns in play I don't want to burn someone like Thomas this week.                      

Moderately Owned Pick: Dustin Johnson - DJ was a popular pick last week, which means his ownership will probably be down this week. That doesn't mean he's any less of a pick this week, though. Sure, he was the favorite last week, but he would have been the favorite this week if he had played just a little better last week. There was enough in his game last week to make me think he could make a serious run this week.              

Lightly Owned Pick: Adam Scott - With so many big names to choose from, as well as some second-tier golfers who look appealing, it'll be easy for Scott to get lost in the shuffle this week. Add to that, we haven't seen Scott on the PGA Tour since November and there probably aren't many OAD players lining up to take him this week, but he's worth a look. Scott has made the cut here in 11 of 12 starts, which includes a win and two runner-ups.                            

Buyer Beware: Brooks Koepka - Koepka seems like an easy fade this week, but you never know when he's going to get that bug and try to win. That said, he's played this event just once in his career and missed the cut. We also have no idea how is form is, as he hasn't played much since his injury late last year.                          

Last Week: Paul Casey (T64) $16,700; Season - $2,115,125  

This Week: Bubba Watson - This pick came down to Bubba and DJ, but I'm going with Bubba for a couple reasons. First, he's played well enough this year to make me think he has a run in him on a course he likes, and obviously this is one of his favorites. Second, though Johnson played well for a couple rounds last week, he's obviously not in top form yet. He could get there this week, but even if he does, there's a great spot to use him next week in Mexico.                                                      

FANDUEL PICKS  

High/Mid/Low: Bubba Watson ($11,200)/Phil Mickelson ($10,400)/Carlos Ortiz ($8,400)

SURVIVOR PICK

Last Week: Dustin Johnson (T32) - Streak - 5

This Week: J.B. Holmes - As much as I like Bubba this week, he has shown the tendency to lose focus here from time to time, which makes for a risky Survivor pick. Holmes, however, has been solid here all the way through, missing just one cut in 13 tries. His form has been solid over his past few starts as well. There's no reason to think he'll miss the weekend here.