This article is part of our Golf One and Done Pool Expert Picks series.
PGA Championship
Typically major venues outside of The Masters require some digging and guess work to figure out what kind of players will have success. That will not be an issue this week with the PGA Championship taking us back to Quail Hollow Club, which has been a mainstay on the PGA Tour calendar for the last two decades. There will be plenty of course history for OAD players to work with for the second major championship of 2025.
As always when OAD players come to a major, the question is whether to use a LIV player or not. The purse is expected to be similar to one of the eight Signature Events on the PGA Tour calendar, but we obviously can only use LIV players for four events a year. Bryson DeChambeau, who finished second a year ago at the PGA Championship, is projected to dominate the ownership, doubling up the likes of Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler.
About halfway through the season, things are still fairly bunched in the RotoWire OAD Pool. Six players have already topped $8 million with first place sitting just over $10.5 million. Our golf expert, Bryce Danielson, sits second at nearly $9.5 million on the season.
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Course Tidbits
- Course: Quail Hollow Club (7,626 yards, par 71)
- Location: Charlotte, North Carolina
- Purse: $18.5 million ($3.33 million to winner)
- Defending PGA Champion: Xander Schauffele (-21)
- 2024 Quail Hollow Scoring Average: 71.73
The early storylines with Quail Hollow is how will this course drain after the drumming of rain that has gone through the Charlotte area of the last few days. The fairways are going to play soft, but the greens may still be somewhat firm thanks to the sub-air systems under the putting surfaces. That will obviously give the bombers a huge advantage as they will be able to carry it further and have shorter clubs on these very long par-4s. The PGA Championship had been pretty stingy from a scoring perspective until last year when Schauffele shot 21-under-par (263), both of which were major championship scoring records. The winning score of the prior three PGA's from 2021-23 were just a combined 20-under-par.
A year ago McIlroy shot 17-under-par en route to winning the Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow, but that was five strokes better than second, eight strokes better than third and 11 shots better than fourth. The scoring average was 71.73 on this beefy par-71. Given that was a limited-field event of the PGA Tour's best, it's reasonable to expect Quail Hollow will play around 1-to-1.5 strokes over par for this PGA Championship, especially if they continue to let the rough grow and the greens firm up by the weekend. Quail Hollow is an excellent test throughout the bag.
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PGA Championship: One and Done Picks
This is the week to unleash Schauffele. He's been featured a lot in our 'fades' section of this article since returning from a rib injury, but I've seen enough to believe he is now where he needs to be going into a major. The defending PGA Champion finished top-20 in his last four starts, including a T8 at The Masters last month. His iron play looks to be squarely back on form, as he is now up to seventh in SG: Approach. The long irons in particular looks to be very strong, which will come in handy on this long and soft course. Schauffele has also gained strokes on the greens in his last three and around the greens in four of the last five. The 31-year-old finished runner-up each of the last two years at Quail Hollow and finished outside the top 20 just once in the PGA Championship since 2019. --Ryan Andrade
Sometimes, it's best not to overthink things. McIlroy is the best player in the world at this minute playing on the course where he's won more times than anywhere else. It doesn't mean he'll win. But this clearly is the best place to use McIlroy if your league lets you pick a player only once all season. Even if half your league uses him. Because if they do better with McIlroy than your contrarian pick ... you've just double-crossed yourself. --Len Hochberg
I can't fault anyone for targeting DeChambeau, McIlroy or Scheffler if you still have them available as they all make a lot of sense and will be very popular this week. However, I'm going to go for more of a contrarian play in Morikawa. We saw Schauffele break his winless drought at Valhalla last year, so why not Morikawa? He's been incredibly consistent in majors with seven consecutive top-20s and is a former winner of this event with a top-5 last year as well. Great way to potentially make up some ground if you need to make a move up your league's standings. --Ryan Pohle
This consideration is intended primarily for entrants in mid-to-large sized pools who've already burned some combination of Scheffler/McIlroy/DeChambeau, and/or are facing a significant deficit but looking to make a sneaky surge up the leaderboard. Out of the eight players listed shorter than 30/1 in the outright betting market, Morikawa projects to arrive with the least amount of OAD ownership, and by a significant margin compared to the aforementioned alpha trio. Many folks won't tab Morikawa as a course fit on a soft/wet Quail Hollow track that'll likely reward robust driver carry more than usual, but the PGA Tour's FIR percentage leader has gained an average of 2.3 strokes off the tee per event throughout his past five starts, and he's coming off his second-best SG: Putting performance of the season last week at the Truist Championship where he gained 3.6 strokes on the greens. The two-time major champion's greatest asset remains his elite iron play, currently ranking second in proximity and fourth in SG: Approach. Also flying under the radar is Morikawa's recent hiring of caddy Joe Greiner, who won the Wells Fargo Championship alongside Max Homa here in 2019. --Bryce Danielson
There's almost too much working in his favor this week. It makes me a little nervous when a pick looks this good, but I'm going with it anyway. McIlroy is playing some of the best golf of his life right now and he no longer carries the burden of trying to break his major championship drought. The career grand slam is also in the rear view mirror, so he's truly free for the first time in over a decade. Oh, and he's absolutely owned this course throughout his career. McIlroy posted wins on this course in 2022 and 2024 and he finished a respectable T22 when the PGA Championship was held here in 2017. --Greg Vara
PGA Championship: One and Done Fades
Thomas is really starting to round into form, having finished top-2 three of the last four weeks, but there still seems to be a mental hurdle in majors. Since winning the PGA Championship in 2022, Thomas has finished inside the top-30 just once in 11 major starts. He has five missed cuts over that span as well. Given how popular he is expected to be this week because of his current form and the fact he won the PGA the last time it was held at Quail Hollow in 2017, it is a pass for me until he shows he can consistently deliver in the biggest events like some of the other names around him on the board. --Ryan Andrade
We can't pick a player to win more than once. But is there any rule against fading a guy more than once (that question was for my editor and, if you're reading this, I guess not!)? Niemann was the fade at the Masters and here he is again. His odds are too short and his DFS price too high for a guy who's never finished in the top-15 in a major in his career. And he's played in more than 20 of them. Look for Niemann in this space next month at the U.S. Open. --Len Hochberg
The PGA Championship has historically been Rahm's worst major, with his only top-5 coming at Bellerive in 2018. He last played at Quail Hollow in 2021, where he missed the cut. Maybe it will be nothing, but LIV going from Mexico to Korea and now Charlotte in a four-week span isn't ideal. I just think there are too many question marks to force Rahm unless you're strictly trying to be unique. You're much better off saving him for Oakmont or Royal Portrush. --Ryan Pohle
Although it's typically prudent to consider utilizing the top LIV names at majors in OAD, Koepka has gone six consecutive major championship outings without a single top-25 result dating back to the 2023 Open Championship. His short game was atrocious en route to a missed cut at Augusta National in April, and he's averaging just 0.16 strokes gained off the tee per round through his first 25 measured rounds (including LIV and Masters data) of the 2025 campaign. I'd power rank potentially less-popular LIV options Niemann and even Patrick Reed over Koepka this week. --Bryce Danielson
Just a week ago I picked him as my winner, but that did not work out at all. Aberg is going to be a popular play at the majors moving forward, and with good reason, but he seems to be fighting something right now and I don't like his chances at all this week. Perhaps he's hyper-focused on the majors now which is affecting his performance at the other events, but even if that's the case, can he really turn it around this quickly? He started well this past week at the Truist and then the wheels came off. I'm not sure he can turn it around in time to be a factor this week. --Greg Vara
Don't get burned by late withdrawals. Visit RotoWire's PGA tournament field page for a live-updated summary of the field for the current week and list of players who have dropped out.
