This article is part of our Weekly PGA Preview series.
The PGA Tour heads to Florida this week after a quick stop in Mexico where Dustin Johnson once again flexed his muscles and showed us just how dominant he can be when at his best. Unfortunately, we've rarely seen his best during the majors. If that trend continues, he'll go down as one of the best players of all-time, yet one of unfulfilled potential.
As we head to Florida, we are missing some big names this week as the tightening of the PGA Tour schedule has made it difficult for many players to keep their normal schedules. In fact, there's really not much firepower in the field this week, which could open the door for someone to pull an upset. There is, however, the defending champion, who played pretty well during his final round last Sunday. More on that later.
This week: Honda Classic - PGA National, Palm Beach Gardens, Fla.
Last Year: Justin Thomas shot a final-round 68 on his way to a playoff victory over Luke List.
FAVORITES
Justin Thomas (5-1)
Thomas was the second-favorite last week in Mexico, but he stumbled out of the gate to the point where a closing 62 merely placed him in the top 10. The good news, of course, is that he's in excellent form heading into this week. Oh, and he won this event last year. Not that JT needs a weaker field to win, but it won't hurt his chances that many of the best players in the world are
The PGA Tour heads to Florida this week after a quick stop in Mexico where Dustin Johnson once again flexed his muscles and showed us just how dominant he can be when at his best. Unfortunately, we've rarely seen his best during the majors. If that trend continues, he'll go down as one of the best players of all-time, yet one of unfulfilled potential.
As we head to Florida, we are missing some big names this week as the tightening of the PGA Tour schedule has made it difficult for many players to keep their normal schedules. In fact, there's really not much firepower in the field this week, which could open the door for someone to pull an upset. There is, however, the defending champion, who played pretty well during his final round last Sunday. More on that later.
This week: Honda Classic - PGA National, Palm Beach Gardens, Fla.
Last Year: Justin Thomas shot a final-round 68 on his way to a playoff victory over Luke List.
FAVORITES
Justin Thomas (5-1)
Thomas was the second-favorite last week in Mexico, but he stumbled out of the gate to the point where a closing 62 merely placed him in the top 10. The good news, of course, is that he's in excellent form heading into this week. Oh, and he won this event last year. Not that JT needs a weaker field to win, but it won't hurt his chances that many of the best players in the world are absent this week.
Rickie Fowler (10-1)
There's plenty of reasons to like Fowler this week, the first of which is his win here in 2017. The second is his current form. Sure, he didn't play very well in Mexico, but with the thin air and all, I'll give him a pass for last week. The start prior, he won in Scottsdale. The final reason is, he's not the favorite this week, which means he's not expected to win. Fowler seems to play better when he's not expected to win.
Brooks Koepka (10-1)
Koepka is like the anti-DJ. He saves his best for the majors and everything else, well, everything else is just secondary. Koepka is fully aware of this as he's mentioned that he has a difficult time getting up for non-majors, which makes him hard to back outside of those four weeks each year. That said, his talent is undeniable and who knows what he's actually thinking heading into this week, perhaps he finds a reason to get motivated.
MID-TIER GOLFERS
Adam Scott (16-1)
Scott posted a T7 in Mexico last week, and that's after a terrible closing round of 76. Three weeks prior he finished runner-up at the AT&T. In other words, he's close to putting it all together. Considering his track record here, one win and three top-15s in his last four starts, this could be the week he finds the winner's circle again.
Sergio Garcia (16-1)
There isn't a lot of elite talent in the field this week, but I am expecting the winner to come from the group at the top of the odds chart. Garcia is among the favorites, and for good reason as his form is solid and he's played well on this track. He's coming off a top-10 in Mexico and has yet to miss the cut here in eight starts. His best finish was a runner-up in 2016.
Gary Woodland (18-1)
Woodland has been hit or miss at this event over his six starts, with two top-10s and four finishes outside the top 40, but considering his current form, he's more likely to finish in the top 10 than outside the top 40 this week. Woodland opened the season with a runner-up at the Sentry and hasn't slowed much since with three top-20s in five starts, two of which were top-10s. Woodland peaked here in 2017 when he finished runner-up to Rickie Fowler.
LONGSHOTS
Luke List (33-1)
List was rounding into form entering the 2018 Honda Classic and the result was a runner-up finish. That result would be his best of the season, but that's not to say that he struggled after that. List has improved in each of his three seasons on the PGA Tour, and although he hasn't played all that well in 2019, he showed some progress with a T15 last time out at the Genesis. Perhaps a return to the Honda will be the spark he needs.
Michael Thompson (40-1)
To say that Thompson's career peaked with a win at this event in 2013 would be a gross understatement. Since his win in 2013, Thompson has failed to crack $1 million in earnings in a season, but there's hope that he might get there this year. In seven starts this season, Thompson has five top-25s, three of which are top-10s as well. Everything is lined up for a great performance from Thompson this week.
ONE AND DONE GOLFER
Highly Owned Pick: Justin Thomas - For the second consecutive week, Thomas likely will be the highest-owned golfer on the board. Most one-and-done owners who did not use him last week will use him this week or save him for a major. As I always say, though, where is the better chance to win, this week or at a major? As he's a single-digit favorite, I think you know the answer.
Moderately Owned Pick: Rickie Fowler - Fowler's ownership might actually surpass Thomas' in places this week because there haven't been any obvious spots to use him yet, like there have been for Thomas. Additionally, I don't think many players think about saving Fowler for a major. With that in mind, you might want to look elsewhere if you are in catch-up mode. If you are in a good spot, Fowler would be a solid option.
Lightly Owned Pick: Michael Thompson - When you are going off the beaten path, it's nice to have a guy who can actually win. Thompson proved he could do so a handful of years ago, but perhaps more important for this week, he's carded four consecutive top-15s on the PGA Tour. A win would be surprising, but a top-10 would not.
Buyer Beware: Brooks Koepka - Koepka is the third-favorite this week, but there's not a lot to like. As mentioned, you can never be sure about his motivation at non-majors and if his past performance is any indication, he generally doesn't get up for this event as he's never cracked the top 25. Add to that, his form hasn't been great early in the season. It all adds up to a hard pass this week on Koepka.
Last week: Justin Thomas (9) - $201,000; Season - $2,977,614
This week: Michael Thompson - I'm actually fond of many selections this week, including Fowler, Woodland and List, but Thompson provides the most value as I don't expect him to be highly owned and I absolutely expect a top-20 at worst. If List hadn't posted that top-15 in his most recent start, he would have been lightly owned as well, but considering his runner-up here last year, he'll likely have plenty of takers this week.
FANDUEL PICKS
High/Mid/Low: Adam Scott ($10,800)/Michael Thompson ($10,100)/Dylan Fritelli ($8,800)
SURVIVOR PICK
Last week: no cut; Streak - 6
This week: Gary Woodland - Woodland has been erratic on the weekends at this event, but he's always managed to make the cut. His form is solid as well, which means he's making it to the weekend. What he does while he's there, well that's another story.
