This article is part of our Weekly PGA Preview series.
The PGA Tour heads to Augusta this week for the first major of the season. As with every year, there are plenty of storylines leading up to the Masters. Rory McIlroy is in top form entering the week, but is this the year he finally picks up a Green Jacket? Unlike a year ago, Tiger Woods seems to have enough game to win another major; what about another Masters title? Jordan Spieth has been well off of his game most of the season, but he plays so well at Augusta, can he put four rounds together in his favorite spot? What about Dustin Johnson? He was the heavy favorite heading into the 2017 Masters, then he slipped on the stairs. Does he have the right game for this course?
Those are just a handful of items we'll talk about endlessly in the days leading up to the Masters, but there's an interesting angle with just about everyone in the field. Hey, that's what you get when you haven't had a major in seven months.
This week: The Masters – Augusta National, Augusta, Ga.
Last Year: Patrick Reed shot a final-round 71 on his way to a one-stroke victory over Rickie Fowler.
FAVORITES
Rory McIlroy (7-1)
On the surface, McIlroy looks like the favorite. He already has a big win under his belt at the Players and his overall record this season is about as good as it gets. The only issue with McIlroy is the intangibles, the
The PGA Tour heads to Augusta this week for the first major of the season. As with every year, there are plenty of storylines leading up to the Masters. Rory McIlroy is in top form entering the week, but is this the year he finally picks up a Green Jacket? Unlike a year ago, Tiger Woods seems to have enough game to win another major; what about another Masters title? Jordan Spieth has been well off of his game most of the season, but he plays so well at Augusta, can he put four rounds together in his favorite spot? What about Dustin Johnson? He was the heavy favorite heading into the 2017 Masters, then he slipped on the stairs. Does he have the right game for this course?
Those are just a handful of items we'll talk about endlessly in the days leading up to the Masters, but there's an interesting angle with just about everyone in the field. Hey, that's what you get when you haven't had a major in seven months.
This week: The Masters – Augusta National, Augusta, Ga.
Last Year: Patrick Reed shot a final-round 71 on his way to a one-stroke victory over Rickie Fowler.
FAVORITES
Rory McIlroy (7-1)
On the surface, McIlroy looks like the favorite. He already has a big win under his belt at the Players and his overall record this season is about as good as it gets. The only issue with McIlroy is the intangibles, the things we can't see. He's made run or two at this event, but he's always faded down the stretch. Being the favorite entering the week won't help matters either as he tends to come apart when much is expected of him. If he wins this week, we'll look back at how he closed out his Players victory and view that as a mental turning point.
Dustin Johnson (10-1)
DJ didn't fare well at Augusta early in his career, but he seems to have figured something out in his last three starts. In those starts, he finished no worse than T10. He's not the first name that comes to mind when you think of Augusta, and maybe he doesn't have the feel for this course that he has elsewhere, but if he's locked in, it might not matter. That said, I'm leaning on golfers this week who have shown the ability to win here or come very close, and DJ has done neither.
Justin Rose (12-1)
In my mind, this is the favorite. Rose is not as flashy as the two golfers ahead of him, but he's every bit as good and when it comes to majors. In fact, he's been better than McIlroy or Johnson the last few years. His track record here is also much better than the two favorites as he's posted a pair of runner-up showings in the last four years. Rose has never missed a cut here and hasn't finished outside the top 25 since 2008.
MID-TIER GOLFERS
Tiger Woods (14-1)
How can you preview the Masters and not mention Woods? The answer is, you can't. Is his game where it was toward the end of last season? Regrettably, no. But he's not that far off that a serious run this week is out of the question. Let's not forget, this is Tiger Woods at Augusta. He won't run away with anything this week, but if he's on his game, at this course, he's still good enough to beat anyone.
Rickie Fowler (16-1)
Fowler has to win a major at some point, right? Before last year, I always pictured him winning one of the other three majors. But after last year's effort, perhaps he pulls it off this time. Fowler is a now a couple months removed from his win in Arizona, but he hasn't fallen completely off the map since. He's had enough success during his career that he can put more focus on the majors, and I think that's what he's done the last couple months. Whether that's the right move for Fowler, we'll have to wait and see.
Bubba Watson (25-1)
The Masters is the one major where I could probably cut and paste my previous year's selections and you'd be none the wiser. It's the same guys every year, but there's a reason for that. The golfers listed have a knack for this course, and while Watson has been hit-or-miss at Augusta, his hits have been huge.
LONGSHOTS
Adam Scott (40-1)
A defending champ whose missed only two cuts in 17 starts here? Sign me up. Look, this isn't the U.S. Open or the Open Championship where you can pluck some real longshots out of the field. This week is all about the golfers who have proven they can get around this track. Sure, every once in a while, you'll get a Patrick Reed who wins out of nowhere, but more often than not at Augusta, it's all about the track record.
Charley Hoffman (80-1)
Hoffman nearly cashed as a longshot last week, and while his odds of winning this week are much worse than last week, I had to put him on the list for one reason. Hoffman has made a habit out of getting out front early at the Masters and considering he looks to be in good form entering this week, I would again expect him to be near the top of the leaderboard after round one. Can he hang there into the weekend? Why not? He's done it before. As for winning this week, well that's not going to happen, but there's value in golfers who can post good scores Thursday through Saturday.
ONE AND DONE GOLFER
Highly Owned Pick: Rory McIlroy - There likely won't be a "highly owned" guy this week as the favorites aren't necessarily "Augusta" guys, but McIlroy has played so well this year that's he's likely to be a popular pick. If I still had him, I'd think hard about using him here, but I'd still probably look elsewhere.
Moderately Owned Pick: Tiger Woods - If Woods had shown more prior to this week, he'd be the top pick, but as it is, it's not an easy call with Woods this week. Personally, I will look elsewhere, but I can't find much fault with this pick. Perhaps Woods will have more value down the line at one of the Opens, when his game is in better shape.
Lightly Owned Pick: Rickie Fowler - There are so many good options this week that Fowler is likely to get lost in the shuffle. As mentioned, this wasn't always a spot to target Fowler, but he proved last year that he can get around this course in style. If Fowler is to win this week, he'll likely have to do it from behind.
Buyer Beware: Jordan Spieth - I have been on Spieth at Augusta every single year since he won, feel free to check the archives, but I'm not feeling him this year. I don't expect him to fall flat this week as he does have a knack for getting around this course, but his inability to put four rounds together is troubling and I don't see how he gets through this week unscathed.
Last week: Charley Hoffman (2) - $810,000; Season - $4,355,304
This week: Justin Rose - I've taken Spieth in this spot the last couple years, but since he's not on top of his game now, I'm moving to Rose. Mind you, I feel really good about this pick and it has nothing to do with the fact that I've already used McIlroy and DJ. Rose is my top pick this week. He's come close here twice and his game is in good enough shape to win in this spot.
FANDUEL PICKS
High/Mid/Low: Justin Rose ($11,800)/Bubba Watson ($10,200)/Charley Hoffman ($8,500)
SURVIVOR PICK
Last week: Charley Hoffman - (2); Streak - 11
This week: Justin Rose - It's not easy to miss the cut this week, but it's doable and this is no spot to get cute. Rose has everything going for him this week, and I think he's on a mission to steal some of the spotlight back from McIlroy and company. Rose has never missed the cut here in 13 starts.
