This article is part of our Golf Picks series.
Full article available at Read The Line.
2024 3M Open: Making it to Memphis
Major season has moved on and now comes time for the playoff push. Trust me, I'm as bummed as you are that the four majors are behind us, but life goes on. Over the next month plus, we have some great players in the field of 60 at the Olympics and then the FedExCup Playoffs. How soon we forget the amazing Viktor Hovland run we went on last year winning the BMW and the TOUR Championship in back to back weeks. That second win was also the weekend where Megan Khang won in Canada and we had our first PGA TOUR + LPGA double win Sunday. The 3M Open is taking place at TPC Twin Cities for the sixth time. A relatively new tournament on the PGA TOUR schedule, each year the betting storylines have been entertaining.
Fresh off a terrible missed cut in the awful weather wave at Royal Troon, Tony Finau is the betting favorite. Followed closely by Sam Burns, Sahith Theegala, Akshay Bhatia and Luke Clanton the world's best stayed near Paris. Only 12 of the top 50 in the OWGR are playing this week. Competing for $8.1 million, many of the 156 players have bigger reasons than purse money to contend. The regular season only has two more TOUR events; the 3M Open and the Wyndham Championship. Only the Top 70 and ties make the playoffs. There's plenty of room for some serious movement in these two tournaments. Take a look at the current FedExCup Standings.
2024 3M Open: Double bogey avoidance
TPC Twin Cities is a par 71 scorecard carrying over 7,431 yards. Now Blaine, Minnesota sits 1,000 feet above sea level. That means plenty of players will be sending that driver over 300 yards. The theme of this golf course is double bogey avoidance. TPC Twin Cities has seven holes with a two percent double bogey rate or higher. I know, I know, two percent sounds minimal, but that's a significant amount for a TOUR venue. Conversely, there are 12 holes with a birdie rate over 15 percent. This is a classic risk reward PGA TOUR birdie-fest. The average winning score over the previous five editions is 19 under par.
This Arnold Palmer design (2000) pushes players to decide how far they are willing to go. The greens are generous at 6,500 sq/ft and covered in bentgrass. Seventy-two bunkers are strewn throughout the course along with 15 holes where water comes into play. This is one of the few courses where driving accuracy and distance are BOTH above the TOUR average. That means, the field pushes it down the fairway in Blaine. As such, the GIR rate is six percent higher than the PGA TOUR average. Palmer was never known for intricate green complexes, so missing these putting surfaces doesn't seem to hold the contenders back.
Our forecast is vastly better than the west coast of Scotland. We have received some rain this week, but overall the agronomy is in perfect shape and ready for the field. Temperatures are predicted in the high 80s and with a decent amount of wind. That breeze will be blowing from the south. That's significant because 12 holes at TPC Twin Cities run mainly east or west. That is going to produce plenty of cross wind situations. When that wind is blowing side to side and you have that many penalty areas, the pucker factor off the tee and on approach goes way up! Let's see who can let loose across this landscape with double bogey lurking around so many corners.
Please understand, players will make some bad scores here, but 11 under par after 72-holes barely cracked the top 30 last year. The average cutline has been one under par which shows the volatility factor of a layout like this. Scoring success has favored longer hitters. In 2024, that's not much of a mystery, but it bears worth mentioning. When you have a field this wide open, you need multiple factors to differentiate the contenders. The average winner's pre-tournament odds are +10800. In five events, there have been three triple digit winners and one favorite; Finau (2022). Tony returns again after a missed cut at Troon. One of 17 players who have competed in all five previous editions, Finau has finished in the top 7 three times including that win.
One last point on my perspective in the Twin Cities, many of the names you don't readily know played in the Barracuda Championship last week. A secondary PGA TOUR event held alongside The Open. Scoring was prolific and gives us a nice precursor for the 3M field. Many of you already know this, but it bears mention to our betting community.
2024 3M Open: TPC talk
I'm sure you all are tired from all the betting content last week, and with an LPGA event to cover in Canada, I'll get right to the point here. The path to making 20+ sub-par scores is always the same, hit the ball close 32-36 times and convert two-thirds of the birdie chances. The layout at TPC Twin Cities does place a premium on driving the golf ball in play, but not nearly as significant as some pundits would promote. I mentioned this earlier, if accuracy was super important, fairways hit would be below the weekly TOUR average. Second, players would hit less than driver if that was the case. This would drive down the driving distance average which is also well above the TOUR average.
Past champions include Matthew Wolff, Finau, and Cameron Champ. Not just long, these are three of THE longest players on the PGA TOUR of the last 10 years. Once the approach is set up, contenders really need to attack with their irons. Looking at the five winners, they gained (on average) almost eight strokes on the field. I compare these values week after week, venue after venue. That's a ton of strokes on approach. Only one winner (Champ) gained less than seven strokes with his iron game out of the five. Of course he gained over eight strokes with his putter. We will get there. Who in this field can spike on approach like that?
In 2023, nine of the top 12 finishers gained at least two strokes on approach and eight of them gained over three strokes on the field with their putter. There's that formula again. For every distance outside 10', players make more putts than the TOUR average at Twin Cities. These greens are good and in fine condition. That northern Poa-bent blend is the best. Successful Superintendents can make this agronomy combination very consistent. With so many competitors coming from the Barracuda (winning score 25 under par) and ISCO Championship (winning score 22 under par), players have been rolling the rock well and will continue to do so.
Par-4 scoring leads the way amongst secondary categories for another area to research. The course has five par-4s over 450 yards. Conversely, there are also five par-4s under 425 yards. Scoring on a variety of 4s makes a big difference in most fields including this one. We very rarely talk about around the green play in shootouts and this week will be the same. It's great to have a wonderful short game, but if you are trying to save par then you are not putting for birdie. A timely save once a round will help, but the easier the course, the less emphasis we need to place on short game.
The proximity gains vary greatly year to year at the 3M. The firmer the conditions, the more it favored longer approaches. Why does that make sense? Gains happen when you can separate from the field. Longer, better approach players have the ability to hit higher apex long irons into the long par 4s and for second shots on par 5s. That leads to scoring and helps you pull away from the field. Watch the best long iron players in the field gain a couple extra strokes on the average ball strikers. TPC Twin Cities is definitely one of the better cookie-cutter PGA TOUR courses. It allows for some separation in scoring and course strategy. Enjoy the return to target golf and vanilla shot shaping.
I know that sounds unfair and like I'm promoting more wild weeks like The Open. The truth is, the uniqueness of each week is what makes every event entertaining. The venue changes, player lists, and forecasts all create an air of uncertainty. Enjoy the 3M Open and watch as our outrights take control of this championship.
2024 3M Open: Outright Winners
Erik van Rooyen (+4000)
van Rooyen is currently 18th on the Presidents Cup point list and at No. 56 in the standings. He has a ton to play for over the next month.
- van Rooyen is a scoring specialist. In his last six birdie-fest events, he has a win, and four top 8 finishes. Erik can go low.
- van Rooyen attended the University of Minnesota. Their campus is just 20 miles away from the course.
- He is the 2012 Minnesota State Amateur Champion. Another proven winner on this agronomy.
Ben Griffin (+5500)
Griffin is another player I love to feature on easier golf courses.
- Over Griffin's last five birdie-fest starts, Griffin has finished 5-2-14-9-8.
- Griffin scores with his approach game proximity. He is gaining an average of two strokes per start over his last 10.
- He then complements it with a nice conversion rate on the greens. In the three SG measured events (of the five above), his average is over six strokes!
For tips and picks, check out Read The Line!
