This article is part of our Weekly PGA Preview series.
The "regular season," the "real season," the "2019 portion of the season," whatever you call it, it's here. For those who checked out during the fall portion of the season, you'll notice a few changes with our weekly preview.
After nearly 20 years of the same format, I decided to mix it up a bit. Gone is the "Avoid" list, as I didn't see much of a purpose for it anymore. My goal with that list was to highlight non-obvious golfers, but I was often stretching to do so. Instead, I will use golfer odds as the breaks between groups. The first group will always contain the three players with the best odds, irrespective of whether I like them. The following two groups will contain players I like at varying odds. In other words, the only time you'll see a golfer on the list that I potentially do not like, will be among the first, which again, is dictated by the odds.
I've also added an "optimal pick" to the one-and-done list, which essentially gives me the option of mentioning the best one-and-done pick each week, regardless of whether I've used him. There's also a "buyer beware" pick, which will be a golfer with good odds who might not be a good pick in that format. The intro will also be a bit shorter this year, most often looking forward rather than back. Other than that, everything else will remain the same. Good luck to everyone this year!
This week:
The "regular season," the "real season," the "2019 portion of the season," whatever you call it, it's here. For those who checked out during the fall portion of the season, you'll notice a few changes with our weekly preview.
After nearly 20 years of the same format, I decided to mix it up a bit. Gone is the "Avoid" list, as I didn't see much of a purpose for it anymore. My goal with that list was to highlight non-obvious golfers, but I was often stretching to do so. Instead, I will use golfer odds as the breaks between groups. The first group will always contain the three players with the best odds, irrespective of whether I like them. The following two groups will contain players I like at varying odds. In other words, the only time you'll see a golfer on the list that I potentially do not like, will be among the first, which again, is dictated by the odds.
I've also added an "optimal pick" to the one-and-done list, which essentially gives me the option of mentioning the best one-and-done pick each week, regardless of whether I've used him. There's also a "buyer beware" pick, which will be a golfer with good odds who might not be a good pick in that format. The intro will also be a bit shorter this year, most often looking forward rather than back. Other than that, everything else will remain the same. Good luck to everyone this year!
This week: Tournament of Champions - Plantation Course at Kapalua, Maui, Hawaii
Last Year: Dustin Johnson shot a final-round 65 on his way to an eight-stroke victory over Jon Rahm.
FAVORITES
Dustin Johnson (5-1)
The first tournament of the year is always a little iffy, as it generally follows the longest layoff of the season, but DJ has proved time and again that rust is not an issue for him at Kapalua. DJ has six top-10s here in eight starts, two of which were wins – last year and 2013. The odds don't provide much value this week with DJ, but the field is as small as it gets for an official event.
Brooks Koepka (8-1)
Is this the year Koepka ups his "normal" game to match his "major" game? It only makes sense that Koepka would improve his overall game this season as his performance at the majors is well out of line with what we've seen from him at the majors the last couple seasons. As for this week, Koepka has only two starts here and one was a disastrous T34. He's one of the best players in the field, but there are better options this week.
Jon Rahm (8-1)
This is a big year for Rahm if he's to make the leap into the "elite" category. Rahm had a solid 2018 season, but was lost in the shuffle as he accomplished little during the heart of the season. Rahm will look to start the year strong again at Kapalua, much like he did last year when he finished runner-up to Dustin Johnson. Last year was Rahm's first start at this event, which means there's no way to tell if he has a feel for this course or he was just hot for a week. Whatever the case, Rahm should be in contention come Sunday.
MID-TIER PLAYERS
Bryson DeChambeau (12-1)
DeChambeau was simply lights out for much of last season, and it will be interesting to see if he can continue that pace this season. DeChambeau has only one start at his event, and it didn't end well, but he's a much different player than he was even 12 months ago as something clicked midway through last season.
Patrick Reed (16-1)
A tale of two seasons for Reed last year as there was the pre-Masters and post-Masters Reed. If you followed the game at all last year, you know which was better. Reed has historically fared better during the first half of the season as opposed to the second half, one reason being this event, which he won in 2015 and finished runner-up in 2016.
Cameron Champ (20-1)
If you weren't paying attention during the fall season, you might be wondering who this is and why he's on this list. Champ came on like gang-busters this fall and is someone to be reckoned with this season. Champ has the length to match anyone on the PGA Tour and, as is always the case with bombers, all he needs is a little improvement in the rest of his game to become elite.
LONGSHOTS
Keegan Bradley (40-1)
Expectations for Bradley have been all over the map since his major win 2011. Just when they seemed to be at their lowest, Bradley surprised everyone and won the BMW Championship. Bradley hasn't been here for a while, but he did post a top-5 in his most recent start at this event in 2013.
Charles Howell III (60-1)
Here's a name not many expected to see in this field again, but Howell III broke a decade-long winless drought when he captured a victory at the RSM Classic. Now that we know it's possible for Howell III to win on the PGA Tour, he should be considered in certain spots. Mainly, those spots will be early in the season, where Howell III does his best work.
ONE AND DONE GOLFER
Optimal pick: Dustin Johnson - Most want to save the best players for the biggest events, but you should really use the best players when they have the best chance to win. With a solid track record at this event and the smallest field all year, this is DJ's best chance to win all season.
Buyer beware: Rory McIlroy - McIlroy is listed at 10-1 entering this week, which puts him in the pack just behind DJ, but he's never played this event, and when we last saw him on the PGA Tour, he wasn't exactly in top form. McIlroy surely is looking to bounce back this season, but a pick here is too risky.
Last week: Cameron Champ (6) - $230,400; Season - $1,561,295
This week: Patrick Reed - While Dustin Johnson is the most likely winner this week, he has much more value in the coming weeks than Reed. Therefore, I am going to hold onto DJ a little while longer and take Reed, who is certainly capable of winning this week.
FANDUEL PICKS
High/Mid/Low: Dustin Johnson ($12,000)/Jon Rahm ($10,500)/Charles Howell III ($8,500)
SURVIVOR PICK
Last week: Russell Henley - (MC); Streak - 0
This week: no cut
