Weekly Preview: TOUR Championship

TOUR Championship

East Lake Golf Club
Atlanta, GA

The PGA Tour heads to Atlanta for the final event of the 2020-21 campaign.

It's been quite the season, especially when considering at the start of 2021 there were still no fans in attendance. Fast forward eight months, and although things still aren't back to normal, it at least looks that way on the television. 

As we look ahead to this week and the years ahead, one thing we should recognize is the insane amount of talent on the PGA Tour. We'll start with Jon Rahm, Dustin Johnson and Justin Thomas, and while the first thought that comes to mind is just how good these guys are, there is a total of only four majors among them. Sure, Rahm is very early in his career, but DJ isn't, and JT has been around a while now. These golfers have immense talent, yet there just aren't enough majors to go around with the likes of Bryson DeChambeau, Jordan Spieth and Brooks Koepka out there as well. You have to wonder if anyone in this era will even get to five majors. Koepka needs only one more and Rahm seems destined for a number north of that, but nothing is set in stone. A couple years without a major and suddenly the pressure mounts. Who would have thought in 2014 that Rory McIlroy would still be in search of his fifth major in 2022? 

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As for this week, we've got another ridiculous chunk of money on the line -- and bonus strokes, yay! The strokes are a big advantage, but it's not unheard of to overcome them. Given that this tournament is now regularly held at East Lake, we have plenty of course history in play as well.

LAST YEAR

Dustin Johnson shot a final-round 68 on his way to victory over Xander Schauffele.

FAVORITES

Patrick Cantlay (7-2)

Cantlay starts with the most strokes in his favor, so it makes sense that he's atop this list. However, he's not that far ahead of the next guys in line, and to be honest, his favorite status is fairly shaky despite the early advantage. In other words, the oddsmakers aren't backing Cantlay. That could be a mistake, though. His track record on this course isn't great, but Cantlay has run very hot-and-cold in recent years and he's on fire at the moment, winning twice since the start of June.

Jon Rahm (4-1)

Rahm starts the week at 6-under-par, and although he isn't starting in the second position, that doesn't stop him from being the second favorite. That makes sense, as several strokes over four rounds isn't a huge advantage and Rahm is still thought of as the best player currently going. He failed to make a serious run last week, but he did play well, and his track record here is pretty solid, with nothing worse than a T12 in four starts.

Bryson DeChambeau (5-1)

His issues closing out last week's event aside, DeChambeau is starting to resemble the guy who tore through the Tour after play resumed following last season's hiatus. If he's truly back to that form, he's going to be a problem this week. He starts at 7-under, which puts him right in the mix from the start. One thing working against him is his track record at East Lake. His best result in three tries here is a T12 in 2019.

THE NEXT TIER

Dustin Johnson (20-1)

Johnson is not in top form, but he's one of a few guys that can get hot enough to overcome a significant stroke disadvantage. DJ starts the week at 3-under, which is a large mountain to climb, but we all know how good he can be when he's locked in. He won this event last year, but he needed the bonus strokes to do so. His track record on this course is just okay, so it's not likely he wins this week, but it is a possibility.

Jordan Spieth (30-1)

We're starting to get into "slim chance" territory here, as the strokes disadvantage is going to be tough to overcome. But some of these golfers have enough in them to do so and Spieth is one of those guys. He hasn't played his best recently, so this could be more of a long shot. However, he did win this event in 2015, so he could be a threat.

Xander Schauffele (30-1)

Schauffele proved last year that it's possible to get into contention even if you start well behind. He started seven strokes back of Johnson and made a serious run at the title before coming up three strokes short. Schauffele will start eight strokes back, but he doesn't have to chase down a sizzling DJ this time around.

LONG SHOTS

Collin Morikawa (40-1)

He's well off his game right now and starts seven strokes back -- what's not to like? Seriously, Morikawa does not look like a good play on paper, but he has looked lost in the past, only to find his game in the blink of an eye and win. He's got his work cut out for him obviously, but that's why he's listed at this number.

Brooks Koepka (50-1)

It's not often you'll get these odds on Koepka, but he is starting eight strokes back, so it makes sense. He too has not been on top of his game recently, but perhaps "Major Brooks" shows up this week in an effort to capture the $15 million prize for first place. Koepka's track record here is spotty, but he does have two top-6 finishes in four starts.

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-owned Pick: Jon Rahm - I'll stick with Rahm here even though I doubt many OAD players still have him available. If you are looking for one guy to win it all, it's probably Rahm. Cantlay opens with an advantage, but he doesn't have a great track record on this course and it's tough to gauge how much added pressure he will feel.

Moderately-owned Pick: Patrick Cantlay - The top two options this week mimic the previous event, but if you have Cantlay at your disposal it will be tough to pass up the free shots. Even if he doesn't win, he's bound to be in the mix because of the advantage in strokes. He also has form in his favor, having just won last weekend.

Lightly-owned Pick: Brooks Koepka - It seems strange to think that anyone would have Koepka left, but I actually have him available on one of my teams. There was always a superior option to Koepka, so on that team I can use him this week. As mentioned above, it's highly unlikely he will make up the strokes, but if he's motivated, you never know.

Buyer Beware: Justin Thomas - It looked like Thomas was on his way back with an opening-round 63 at The Northern Trust, but he wasn't able to keep the momentum going that week, nor the following week at the BMW Championship. Thomas has had a fine season, but it seems like he's been just a bit off for most of it. As such, I don't expect him to make a run at the title.

Last Week: Sam Burns - 8 - $284,500

Season Total: $7,791,772

This Week: Justin Thomas - You aren't going to see this often -- or maybe ever again -- but it's the end of the season and I've got no other viable options available, so I actually have to use the golfer I cautioned against using. On the bright side, it's still JT, right? The guy is one of the best five golfers in the world, and he does have a quality track record here. I have a number of other options, but I don't have faith in them, either. Plus, they are starting further back than Thomas.

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Jon Rahm ($13,000)
Middle Range: Xander Schauffele $10,500
Lower Range: Erik van Rooyen $7,000

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

Last Week: N/A

Streak: 1

This Week: N/A