Weekly Preview: Valero Texas Open

Valero Texas Open

TPC San Antonio
San Antonio, TX

The PGA Tour heads to San Antonio with the final prep for the Masters underway. 

We put another Match Play event in the books, and just like almost all the ones before this most-recent instance, it was a disappointment...on the weekend. It seems like every year we have the same discussion, and it always revolves around how to make the event more interesting on Saturday and Sunday. The only tweak they've made was changing the first-round format, and all that did was suck the life out of the first few days. I said it last week and I'll continue to say it, match play is all about the first few rounds, and removing the sudden-death aspect takes away a lot of the excitement. As for the weekend, there's no way to guarantee big names play those days without some sort of bye system, and I doubt the players as a whole would be in favor of that, so let's just go back to how it was originally: if you lose after one day, so be it. It's better than losing on day one and having to stick around for two more days knowing that you no longer control your destiny, right?

Now looking ahead to this week's event, we don't have a great field, but we have a lot of course history and we could see another surprise winner.

LAST YEAR

This tournament was not played last year due to the pandemic, but in 2019, Corey Conners shot a final round 66 on his way to a two-stroke victory over Charley Hoffman.

FAVORITES

Jordan Spieth (12-1)

A few months ago, the thought of Spieth being favored to win a PGA Tour event would have been laughable, but a lot has changed over the past couple months. Spieth is now being listed among the favorites at Augusta, and rightfully so. Sure, he hasn't won during his recent stretch of quality play, but anyone who has watched him play recently can see that is coming. This looks like a perfect spot to do so as there isn't much in his way and his track record here is pretty solid.

Scottie Scheffler (14-1)

It will be interesting to see what Scheffler has left in the thank after laying everything out there at the Match Play. His form is certainly good on point, but if he's spent, physically or mentally, he's certainly not a good play this week. We should have a good idea of where he is at after round-one, but that doesn't help us now, does it? I'm guessing that he'll be fine after a few days off and his form will overtake any fatigue issues.

Tony Finau (14-1)

To his credit, Finau came back strong after getting destroyed in his opening match last week in Austin, but I'm still not sure where his game is. He's listed among the favorites this week, mostly because of his name because his track record here is a little sketchy. He's made the cut in all three starts here, but in two of those starts he's ended up worse than 60th-place. The other start resulted in a T3 though, so he is capable of scoring well here.

THE NEXT TIER

Corey Conners (20-1)

Conners is the defending champion, and while that's never easy for a younger player, I think getting back to this event might be what he needs to get back over the hump. Conners has flashed some good form over the past couple months, but he hasn't been able to put it all together during that span. His performance last week was forgettable, but that was an entirely different format, so perhaps his game will be fine once he gets back to stroke-play.

Ryan Palmer (25-1)

Whenever the PGA Tour reaches its Texas swing, Palmer is one of the guys that comes to mind. He looked good last week but wasn't able to get the desired results. The good news is, he appears to be in good form, which is great news because Palmer has been able to score well here when he's on. Palmer has missed his two most recent cuts here, but prior to that he finished T6, T4, and T6. At 25-1, Palmer provides plenty of value this week.

Charley Hoffman (30-1)

If Hoffman were in better form right now, he would be among the favorites as his track record here is about as good as it gets. Hoffman has 14 starts at this event and he's yet to miss a cut. He also has six top-10s, which includes a win in 2016 and a runner-up in 2011. Hoffman's form isn't great entering at the moment, but it isn't bad either, as he posted a T10 just a few weeks ago. There's enough there to think a serious run at the title is possible.

LONG SHOTS

Sam Burns (40-1)

Burns caught a lot of attention earlier this season when he nearly won the Genesis Invitational, and predictably, his performance fell off in this weeks following, but enough time has passed that he should be able to get back on track. Burns missed the cut in his two starts after his solo-3rd at the Genesis, but he's had a couple weeks to reset and he should start to show the form that put him in position to win at the Genesis soon.

Kevin Chappell (100-1)

I'm going way off the board with this pick, but there's reason to think that Chappell can contend for the crown. The main reason is that he won this event in 2017, but that's not his only good performance here. He also finished runner-up in 2011 and T4 in 2016. His form hasn't been great over the past year, but he did post a T13 at The Honda Classic in his most recent start.

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-owned Pick: Jordan Spieth - I get the feeling that most OAD players were waiting for the right time to pounce on Spieth and this appears to be it. Sure, he looks like a good play at the Masters as well, but he won't be better than 12-1 at Augusta unless he wins in San Antonio. He'll also be facing much stiffer competition at the Masters compared to this week. Spieth doesn't have any wins here, but he did post a runner-up in 2015.

Moderately-owned Pick: Scottie Scheffler - As mentioned previously, fatigue could be a factor for Scheffler this week, which might prevent some OAD owners from using him. However, I still think that plenty of teams will be on him because of his form. Scheffler has just one start at this event, but it did result in a top-20.

Lightly-owned Pick: Kevin Chappell - Chappell has been off the radar for a while now, and even though he's had some success here, I doubt many OAD players will go this far down the odds chart to make their play. Chappell looks like a good pick this week though, no matter how poorly he's played over the past year, as one of his best performances in the past 12 months came in his most recent start.

Buyer Beware: Tony Finau - Honestly, there aren't many good choices for this spot this week, but Finau comes the closest to fitting the definition of someone who might be overrated. If nothing else, it's only because most of the players near the top of the odds chart look like solid plays. Finau comes in with decent form, but his track record here is a bit scattered. I know, it's not a great reason to fade him, it's more of a "worst choice among good choices" deal.

Last Week: Viktor Hovland - T42 - $47,571

Season Total: $2,353,463

This Week: Charley Hoffman - I didn't expect to have such a hard time making a pick this week, but there are so many guys I like, it actually took quite a while to land on Hoffman. I thought hard about Spieth, but I wanted to save him for a bit later in the season, perhaps a couple weeks from now. I also gave a lot of thought to Chappell, but in the end, I decided I didn't want to go that far down the list to make a pick. Palmer would have been my top choice, but I used him earlier in the season. I landed on Hoffman, who should be on some teams this week. But with so many good options, I should be able to make up some ground on the competition if he plays well.

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Jordan Spieth ($11,500)
Middle Range: Ryan Palmer ($10,700)
Lower Range: Kevin Chappell ($8,500)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

Last Week: N/A

Streak: 0

This Week: Charley Hoffman - There's only one reason not to take Hoffman in this format this week and that's to play contrarian. Hey, it's not a bad strategy. As proof, I faded Brandt Snedeker at the St. Jude event years ago as I assumed the entire league was going to take him and he somehow missed the cut which opened the door for me to win the league. It's not a bad strategy as anything can happen in golf, but I really don't see Hoffman missing the cut, as he has made 15 straight cuts here.