Weekly Recap: Hoge's on a Roll

Jordan Spieth birdied the 12th hole, then the 13th. He led by two strokes with five holes to play. Pebble Beach was in a frenzy. On a day when seven different golfers held a share of the lead, the one everybody wanted to win was going to win. At that moment, was there a surer thing in golf?

But soon after, in a surreal sequence lasting all of 41 seconds on CBS, the entire script flipped, opening the door for Tom Hoge -- Tom Hoge? -- to steal the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and record the first PGA Tour victory of his career.

To be sure, Hoge is no tomato can, as he came in ranked 68th in the world, was coming off a runner-up at The American Express andwas  playing the best golf he had ever played.

But this was Spieth. At Pebble Beach. Where Spieth won in 2017.

Here's how the whole tournament changed.

First, Hoge birdied the 14th hole. Spieth still had a one-stroke lead as he stood on the par-3 17th tee and took what he would later call his "best swing of the week." The wind knocked it down and it landed in the front bunker as the crowd gasped. CBS immediately cut to the 16th fairway, from where Hoge's approach from 142 yards nestled nine inches from the cup for a tying kick-in birdie.

As jaw-dropping as that two-shot, 41-second sequence was, there was more. Spieth was unable get up and down from the bunker, missing a five-footer for par to astoundingly give Hoge the outright lead. Moments later, Hoge delivered the final sledgehammer on the 17th green, draining a 22-footer for birdie and the two-stroke margin he ended up winning by.

That's how the 32-year-old North Dakotan chased down and beat the fan favorite. Oh, and he also was grouped on Sunday with world No. 4 Patrick Cantlay, who wound up tied for fourth.

Like we said, Hoge has been playing very well. He was in the final pairing and tied for 12th at Pebble Beach a year ago. He was top-25 at THE PLAYERS Championship. He tied for fourth in the loaded playoff field at The Northern Trust. He then closed 2021 with another T4 at The RSM Classic. And he finished solo second just two weeks ago at The Amex to crack the top 100 in the Official World Golf Ranking for the first time in a PGA Tour career that began in 2014.

With Sunday's win, in his 203rd PGA start, Hoge vaulted to No. 39 in the world. He'll be in the Masters. Probably all the majors. And of course he earned a two-year exemption.

Hoge has always been a good iron player, ranking in or near the top 50 on Tour in Strokes Gained: Approach the past five years. But he was terrible around the green, ranked well outside the top 100, and not much better with the putter. Now, he's ranked fifth in SG: Approach and 40th in SG: Around-the-Green.

It's not often that a golfer reinvents himself on the other side of 30. But it's not unprecedented. It even happened recently, with Jason Kokrak winning for the first time and then twice more in the past 18 months.

So all things considered, Hoge's win should not come as a complete surprise.

In a humorous moment after the Golf Channel rebroadcast of the final round on Sunday night, Golf Central host Whit Watson admitted they had been preparing for a "Spieth-heavy" show. Hoge had other ideas.

MONDAY BACKSPIN

Jordan Spieth
Spieth surely will be kicking himself over what happened down the stretch. But after a few shaky tournaments that came in the aftermath of him becoming a first-time father in December – we're not saying that was the cause, just that it happened – he's back to being himself again. And who would be surprised if he jumps back into the top-10 in short order? Spieth is up to 13th in the world, which is just one tick from the best he's been since his resurgence after a four-year downturn.

Beau Hossler
Hossler had been steadily falling in the world rankings for years, to the point that he entered the week outside the top-400 for the first time since 2017 at the onset of his PGA Tour career. So this solo third surely came out of nowhere, far more than Hoge's win did. Hossler missed the cut in half of his 26 starts in 2021. Unlike with Hoge, there's nothing to indicate that Hossler has turned things around for the long haul. But he did get a nice boost to his world ranking, now 272nd.

Patrick Cantlay
Cantlay does not have many bad days with his irons. But this surely was one of them. He was still on the periphery of contention when he bogeyed both 15 and 16 to settle into a tie for fourth. Cantlay ranked 59th in SG: Approach and 94th in greens in regulation for his two rounds on Pebble Beach. Those numbers will not last, and we would expect to see them reverse right away this week in Phoenix.

Troy Merritt
Merritt actually owned the outright lead at 17-under after a birdie on No. 14 (others were still earlier on the back nine). But a soul-crushing double bogey on 17 ended his chances and left him tied for fourth. Merritt is a decent golfer, with runners-up on Tour in each of the past three years, although two of them were in an opposite-field event. But the most recent one was at last year's Rocket Mortgage. He's not going to get many chances for a third PGA Tour win, but surely warrants lineup consideration many weeks. He's now 103rd in the world.

Matt Fitzpatrick
Fitzpatrick was not one of the seven golfers who had a share of the lead on Sunday, and he did not get any TV time in the final round. But he tied for sixth, playing steady, unassuming golf all week with four rounds in the 60s, one of only three golfers to do so. We don't know whether Fitzpatrick will ever get that elusive PGA Tour win, but he did choose to play here this week rather than Saudi Arabia. His decision paid off, and he's back inside the top 25 at No. 25.

Joel Dahmen
Dahmen was done in by bogeys on 10, 14 and 15 and ended in a tie for sixth. He did win at Puerto Rico last year but is not often in position to win like this. He makes a lot of cuts but doesn't collect many top-10s. Dahmen is ranked 96th in the world and that's about who he is.

Andrew Putnam
Putnam bogeyed 12 and 13, and couldn't find a birdie on the back nine, leaving him tied for sixth. Putnam is normally good for a few top-10s every year, but good luck finding them.

Asian Tour

Yes, the Saudi International -- after being dismissed by the European Tour -- is now an Asian Tour event.

Harold Varner III
Varner was surely thinking "get it close" when he stood over a very long eagle try from just off the green on the 72nd hole. He needed a birdie to force a playoff with Bubba Watson. Miraculously, he drained it for the biggest win of his career, and only his second after the 2016 Australian Open. That's right, Varner has never won on the PGA Tour. Whether this propels him, we shall see. While there were many big names in the field, there were many, many terrible golfers – in all, the strength-of-field rating was akin to something like Mayakoba. In all of 2020 and 2021, Varner had only two total top-10s. One of them was a runner-up to Stewart Cink at last year's RBC Heritage. But a win is a win, and now Varner has cracked the top-50 for the first time in his career, at No. 45, and if he can hang on and stay in the top-50 by March 28 he'll play in his first Masters. Varner is in the field for this week's WM Phoenix Open.

Bubba Watson
Watson had not played at all since the Northern Trust way back in August. During that time he fell from 67th in the world all the way outside the top-100. Now, with his Saudi runner-up, he's well back inside at No. 60. It certainly was a good sign Watson could play so well after such a long layoff, but it's too soon to know whether this signals a shift for a better year ahead. He had only one stroke-play top-10 in all of 2021. Watson is also in the field to play Phoenix this week.
 
Dustin Johnson
Johnson had played this tournament three times and finished no worse than second. He won it twice. So even a six-way tie for eighth is a big step back. Last year's Saudi Invitational thus remains Johnson's most recent top-5 anywhere in the world. He has slipped to fifth in the world rankings and is primed for some real regression as points come off his ledger unless a big finish comes in a hurry.
 
Bryson DeChambeau
DeChambeau is hurt (wrist, maybe more), and he probably should take time off until fully healthy. He probably shouldn't have gone to Saudi Arabia, but he probably got a lot of cash to do so. At least he played only two rounds before missing the cut. Right now, DeChambeau is listed in the field for Riviera in two weeks but we should not be surprised to see hm sit that one out. Not that this matters much now, but DeChambeau slipped to 10th in the world as Cameron Smith, who tied for fourth in the Saudi tournament, moved up to ninth.

European Tour

The Ras al Khaimah Championship presented by Phoenix Capital was played last week in the United Arab Emirates, and rising star Nicolai Hojgaard won it. It was the second Tour win for the 20-year-old from Denmark. He and twin brother Rasmus were both ranked about 100th, but Nicolai will move to 67th in the world. Rasmus tied for 42nd on the week and is now 108th. The field was not much stronger than an alternate-field event on the PGA Tour, with no one ranked top-50 in the OWGR taking part.