This article is part of our Weekly PGA Preview series.
The PGA Tour bids adieu to California, for now, and heads south to Mexico and Puerto Rico this week. The big boys head to Mexico, while the rest head to Puerto Rico. For the purposes of this article, we'll focus on the event in Mexico, which happens to be the first WGC event on the 2019 schedule. A small amount of course history is in play this week as the current course has been used for two years. As expected, we have some big names in the field this week, so we'll be focusing on those.
This week: WGC-Mexico Championship - Club de Golf Chapultepec, Mexico City
Last Year: Phil Mickelson shot a final-round 66 on his way to a playoff victory over Justin Thomas.
FAVORITES
Justin Thomas (9-1)
Thomas, who should have won last week, nearly won here last year. It makes perfect sense that Thomas is the favorite this week. Thomas made a furious run to the finish last year to tie Phil Mickelson, only to fall in a playoff. His form is obviously good enough to replicate that effort. The only question is his mental state, which could be shaken after blowing a big lead last Sunday.
Dustin Johnson (10-1)
DJ and JT are a virtual coin toss this week as both are in good form and both have played very well at this event the last two years. The only reason JT has slightly better odds is his runner-up showing last week. Then again, considering how
The PGA Tour bids adieu to California, for now, and heads south to Mexico and Puerto Rico this week. The big boys head to Mexico, while the rest head to Puerto Rico. For the purposes of this article, we'll focus on the event in Mexico, which happens to be the first WGC event on the 2019 schedule. A small amount of course history is in play this week as the current course has been used for two years. As expected, we have some big names in the field this week, so we'll be focusing on those.
This week: WGC-Mexico Championship - Club de Golf Chapultepec, Mexico City
Last Year: Phil Mickelson shot a final-round 66 on his way to a playoff victory over Justin Thomas.
FAVORITES
Justin Thomas (9-1)
Thomas, who should have won last week, nearly won here last year. It makes perfect sense that Thomas is the favorite this week. Thomas made a furious run to the finish last year to tie Phil Mickelson, only to fall in a playoff. His form is obviously good enough to replicate that effort. The only question is his mental state, which could be shaken after blowing a big lead last Sunday.
Dustin Johnson (10-1)
DJ and JT are a virtual coin toss this week as both are in good form and both have played very well at this event the last two years. The only reason JT has slightly better odds is his runner-up showing last week. Then again, considering how he ended up as the runner-up, perhaps DJ should be the favorite? You can't go wrong with either guy this week, but I think the oddsmakers got it right with JT as the slight favorite.
Rory McIlroy (11-1)
Once again, McIlroy is placed ahead of some other deserving players because of the anticipated money from the public. McIlroy has played well this year, but he hasn't often been in the mix to win. He's played this course once and finished T7. Considering the field he's up against, and his inability to win on the PGA Tour recently, this probably isn't the week to pull the trigger on McIlroy.
MID-TIER PLAYERS
Jon Rahm (14-1)
Much like McIlroy, Rahm has a nice earned plenty of money this season, but he hasn't really threatened to win at any point. For guys like these, though, it's only a matter of time before they fix that one thing that is preventing them from winning. Rahm played this event each of the last two seasons, with his best effort a T3 in 2017.
Phil Mickelson (25-1)
When Mickelson won this event last year, he broke a four-year winless drought. Since then, he's obviously found his game and is nowhere near the underdog entering this week as he was last year. He's only a couple weeks away from his win at Pebble Beach and has proven an ability to get around this course with ease, which means he has as much value as anyone this week.
Jordan Spieth (30-1)
Normally, guys coming off of rounds of 81 don't have much value, but I'll make an exception here as Spieth continues to extend his solid play further and further into each event he plays. Three weeks ago, he had one good round; two weeks ago, it was two good rounds; last week, well you've probably guessed the pattern by now. Does that guarantee four good rounds this week? Of course not, but he is getting closer and he will win again at some point.
LONGSHOTS
Tommy Fleetwood (35-1)
Fleetwood has been a sort of Koepka-light the last couple seasons. While Koepka is winning majors, Fleetwood is merely playing well at majors, but Fleetwood has also played some of his best golf at the WGC events as well, something Koepka can't exactly say. Fleetwood hasn't played all that well this season, but some golfers just get up for the big events, and Fleetwood might be one of those guys.
Rafa Cabrera Bello (45-1)
Cabrera-Bello has been over-hyped in his career, at least with his performance on the PGA Tour. But every once in a while, he pops up on the leaderboard and makes his presence known. He did just that two years ago at this event when he finished solo-third, and considering his form is decent , he's certainly capable of making another run. Whether he can actually win, well that's another story.
ONE AND DONE GOLFER
Highly Owned Pick: Justin Thomas - With his near win last week and his near win last year at this event, Thomas will undoubtedly be a popular pick this week, and I can't think of any reason to not take him. Check that. If you need to make up ground in a hurry, then you could look elsewhere, but other than that, JT should be your guy this week.
Moderately Owned Pick: Phil Mickelson - Mickelson is the defending champ and he won just a couple weeks ago, which means plenty of people will be on him this week, but he won't have the highest ownership only because many players don't like using Mickelson against a field like this. That said, he took down almost the same exact field last year and is capable of doing it again this year.
Lightly Owned Pick: Tyrell Hatton - Hatton comes into this week completely under the radar as his form isn't quite as good as it was 12 months ago, but he still has plenty of upside this week. Hatton has finished in the top 10 in both of his starts at this event, on this course. If you are looking to fade the chalk this week, Hatton could be your guy.
Buyer Beware: Rory McIlroy - To put it simply, I want to see him win before taking him in this format. Yes, he's playing well this year, but as mentioned, he hasn't exactly been in the mix; he's been just behind the real contenders, hanging around long enough for a top-5 or top-10, but never threatening to win. There are several golfers with more value than McIlroy this week.
Last week: Bubba Watson (T15) - $100,788; Season - $2,776,614
This week: Justin Thomas - At this pace, I might be left with only Kiradech Aphibarnrat for the final event of the season, but I have to pull the trigger on these guys when I see fit, and I see fit to use JT this week for many reasons. I've mentioned the main reasons already, but one that I haven't talked about yet is the pride of the elite golfers. Thomas let one get away last week and will undoubtedly want to get back to action this week to make amends for his failings this past Sunday.
FANDUEL PICKS
High/Mid/Low: Justin Thomas ($12,000)/Cabrera-Bello ($9,900)/Tyrell Hatton ($9,200)
SURVIVOR PICK
Last week: Bubba Watson - (T15); Streak - 6
This week: no cut
