This article is part of our Yahoo PGA DFS Picks series.
The Northern Trust
Jersey City, New Jersey
Liberty National Golf Club - Par 71 - 7,410 yards
Field - 124 entrants
Purse - $9.5M
The Preview
Drama was promised last week in Greensboro where the last few spots in the upcoming FedExCup Playoffs were decided, but nobody expected six players and their caddies to be strolling down the par-4 18th in unison for what turned into two holes of extra golf for first place. The Russell Henley collapse that made it all possible was inevitable, however, ultimately allowing Kevin Kisner to secure his fourth career win on the PGA Tour at the Wyndham Championship. The field strength is ratcheted up a notch and a half for the first leg of the playoffs in New Jersey, as Louis Oosthuizen (neck) marks the only expected absence among those inside the top-125 of the points list. Liberty National Golf Club, which has hosted this event twice in the last decade, is a relatively tough par-71 layout that features small bentgrass greens, placing an emphasis on hitting fairways and iron proximity as the track lends deflated GIR rates compared to the average Tour stop. Just 70 entrants will advance to the BMW Championship, so the Northern Trust serves as the 2020-21 finale for a good portion of the invitees this week.
Recent Champions
2020 - Dustin Johnson
2019 - Patrick Reed (Liberty National G.C.)
2018 - Bryson DeChambeau
2017 - Dustin Johnson
2016 - Patrick Reed
2015 - Jason Day
2014 - Hunter Mahan
2013 - Adam Scott (Liberty National G.C.)
2012 - Nick Watney
2011 - Dustin Johnson
Key Stats to Victory
SG: Tee-to-Green
Proximity
Par-4: 450-500 efficiency
Birdie or better percentage
Yahoo Value Picks
Based on $200 salary cap
Cream of the Crop
Collin Morikawa - $43
The fact that there are as many as eight names priced either higher than or the same as Morikawa just doesn't seem right. The 24-year-old two-time major champion deserves more respect, especially given he's second to none in SG: Approach, SG: T2G and Opportunities Gained over his last 24 rounds while also pacing the entire PGA Tour in birdie average and proximity from 125-175 yards this season. The current leader in FedExCup points has not lost strokes from tee to green since the 2020 U.S. Open last September.
Rory McIlroy - $40
A T12 at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational might not sound all that special for a player of McIlroy's caliber, but a deeper dive reveals his ability to combat the 6.2 strokes he lost on and around the greens with elite ball-striking as he gained a combined 12.4 strokes off the tee and with his irons in Memphis. The Northern Irishman has gained at least 4.1 strokes on his approach shots in five consecutive measured starts dating to a win at the Wells Fargo Championship, and he's first among the Northern Trust field in P4: 450-500 efficiency over his last 24 rounds. Additionally, McIlroy placed T6 here at Liberty National in 2019, when he ranked third in driving distance on the way to 22 total par-breakers while playing the par-5s in nine-under fashion.
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Daniel Berger - $39
Berger, who's coming off a tie for fifth at TPC Southwind where he led the field in SG: Approach, has placed T8 or better in three of his last four starts dating to the U.S. Open. Nobody has been better than Berger in terms of Prox: 175-200 across their past 24 rounds, so it makes sense that he's top-5 in GIR percentage during this span as well.
Glue Guys
Scottie Scheffler - $37
Rattling off three straight top-15s from the European Tour's abrdn Scottish Open to the WGC-FedEX SJI, Scheffler heads into the playoffs ranked first in birdie or better percentage, eighth in par-5 scoring and 14th in P4: 450-500 efficiency throughout his last 24 measured rounds. Scheffler's Morikawa-esque streak of events played with a positive SG: Tee-to-Green finish continues to extend since it began all the way back at early February's Waste Management Phoenix Open.
Paul Casey - $36
The Englishman most recently posted back-to-back top-5 performances at the Olympics and in Memphis at the SJI, so he's up to fourth in SG: Approach, fifth in Prox: 200-plus yards and third in par-5 scoring across his last 24 rounds. Casey's occasionally an extremely lousy putter, but he gained seven strokes with the flat stick at TPC Southwind and his SG: Putting metrics favor bentgrass surfaces, for what it's worth.
Sungjae Im - $30
Im will be three weeks removed from the lofty pressure he endured as an Olympian, and he's due for positive regression from a putting perspective after he lost a collective seven strokes on the greens at TPC Southwind and Sedgefield Country Club. He was sixth in SG: Tee-to-Green last week at the Wyndham Championship, but Im also resides sixth in GIR percentage over his last 24 rounds. Im finished T1 in par-5 scoring at the 2019 Northern Trust hosted by Liberty National, placing T38 overall despite a third-round 76.
Bargain Bin
Adam Scott - $27
Scott's infamous broomstick putter failed him during the six-man playoff at the Wyndham Championship, but he's surprisingly fourth in SG: Putting on bentgrass greens over his last 24 rounds. The Aussie, who won at Liberty National in 2013, added another top-5 finish here in 2019 when he tallied 22 total birdies and an eagle. This past week at Sedgefield CC, Scott ranked third in SG: APP and fourth in SG: T2G en route to his T2.
Jhonattan Vegas - $20
Vegas is on a roll, with four consecutive finishes of T16 or better since the John Deere Classic, a stretch that includes runner-up honors at the 3M Open. Over his last 24 rounds, Vegas is seventh in SG: Off-the-Tee, 11th in birdie or better percentage and 18th in SG: Approach. He notched a T38 at Liberty National in 2019, amassing 20 total birdies and a pair of eagles in the process.
Keegan Bradley - $20
Second to only the aforementioned Morikawa in SG: Tee-to-Green over his last 24 rounds, Bradley also comes in at sixth in SG: Approach, sixth in Opportunities Gained and 13th in Proximity from 175-200 yards in this sample size. He should be well-rested and primed for a playoff run at 43rd in the FEC standings, as the former St. John's standout makes his first tournament appearance since the 3M Open.
