Predicting Fantasy Hockey Progression and Regression for 2025-26

Whenever a player is a pleasant surprise or a big disappointment, the natural question is whether this is the new normal or just an outlier. Successfully predicting when someone is going to regress towards the mean, either positively or negatively, is important when evaluating a player's fantasy worth. To help with that, let's highlight some major players who are likely to either bounce back or come back down to Earth this year.

2025-26 Fantasy Hockey Positive Regression Candidates

Elias Pettersson, C, Vancouver Canucks

Pettersson is a fascinating forward. He's incredibly skilled, but sometimes he falls apart. We saw a glimpse of that in 2021-22 when he was limited to six goals and 17 points through his first 37 games before rebounding to finish the campaign with 32 goals and 68 points, but 2024-25 was a far more extreme example with him recording just 15 goals and 45 points in 64 appearances. Vancouver struggled as a group last year, and the Canucks weren't immune to drama with J.T. Miller ultimately being traded. On top of that, Pettersson dealt with some injury issues. A fresh start and a new head coach in Adam Foote might be just what Pettersson needs. The 26-year-old is a risk, but a return to 30-plus goals and 80-plus points is a strong possibility.

Igor Shesterkin, G, New York Rangers

Speaking of drama, the Rangers were full of it last year, which clearly affected the on-ice product, and when a team is collectively struggling, the goaltender is often the biggest victim. Shesterkin had a 27-29-5 record, 2.86 GAA and .905 save percentage in 61 starts last year. It ended his run of three straight campaigns with at least 30 wins, and 2024-25 also marked career worsts for him in terms of GAA and save percentage. That's not his fault. He still had a plus-21.6 goals saved above expected, which suggests he was doing everything he could to drag the Rangers forward, but he couldn't overcome just how bad the group was in front of him. New York's struggles resulted in lots of roster turnover, much of it occurring while the 2024-25 campaign was still ongoing, but with the dust settled, the Rangers are still a team with promise. If new head coach Mike Sullivan can put 2024-25 in the rearview mirror, then the Rangers should be competitive, and Shesterkin should resume putting up elite numbers.

John Klingberg, D, San Jose Sharks

A long-term hip injury has limited Klingberg to just 25 regular-season games across the past two campaigns, but he did seem to put that behind him by participating in 19 playoff outings with Edmonton last year. Still, he's 33 years old and hasn't reached the 40-point mark since 2021-22, so what hope is there now? To be clear, Klingberg is a huge risk and shouldn't be taken any earlier than the last round of a standard draft. However, he might have picked the perfect destination in San Jose. The Sharks have an encouraging young forward corps, but what they lack is a clear power-play quarterback for the top unit, and once upon a time, Klingberg was capable of filling that role. It remains to be seen if he still can serve in that capacity, but with the Sharks' level of skill, Klingberg could end up breathing new life into his career if all goes well in San Jose.

2025-26 Fantasy Hockey Negative Regression Candidates

Tom Wilson, RW, Washington Capitals

Wilson offers a blend of skill and grit that is always welcome by fantasy managers, but he typically skews more towards grit than skill. In 2024-25, Wilson struck a balance. He still recorded 100 PIM and 233 hits while also setting career highs with 33 goals and 65 points. For a forward who has averaged 18 goals and 39 points per 82 games in his career, that's a huge jump. However, there are warning signs that he's due to decline. His shooting percentage was 19.5, well above his career average of 12.8. Part of that was because he scored a career-high 11 power-play goals (more than double his previous best), but even his 5v5 shooting percentage was 14.7 percent, which was leagues ahead of his 5.2 5v5 shooting percentage from 2023-24. It's hard to expect him to repeat that level of success, either with the man advantage or at even strength. He's still going to provide fantasy managers with around 100 PIM and over 200 hits, but don't count on him coming close to last year's offensive totals.

Jake Walman, D, Edmonton Oilers

After ranging from 10 to 21 regular-season points across 2021-22 through 2023-24, Walman leaped forward in his age-28 campaign with seven goals and 40 points in 65 regular-season appearances between Edmonton and San Jose before adding another 10 points in 22 playoff outings with the Oilers. Given that he still found success even after being acquired by Edmonton, there is room for optimism here, but there is also an important caveat: The Oilers were missing Mattias Ekholm for much of that playoff run, and even when he was back, he was playing with a torn adductor muscle. It's also worth noting that while it didn't dramatically impact Walman during his relatively small sample size with Edmonton, he saw his power-play ice time drop due to the trade, which limits his offensive potential. When the Oilers' blue line is healthy this season, Walman will likely serve outside of the top four. Combine that with the fact that Walman still hasn't managed to hit the 70-game mark in a regular season, and there's a real danger he'll finish with 30 or fewer points this year.

Darcy Kuemper, G, Los Angeles Kings

Kuemper had a 31-11-7 record, 2.02 GAA and .921 save percentage across 50 regular-season appearances with the Kings last year, which led to him finishing third in Vezina Trophy voting. It wasn't just a matter of him getting solid support on a competitive team -- his 22.5 goals saved above expected, per Moneypuck, ranked sixth in the league, which suggests he was more than pulling his weight. You can't dismiss the possibility of him repeating that success with the Kings in 2025-26, but it'd also be wrong to depend on it. Kuemper is a very unpredictable goaltender. In terms of goals saved above expected, he's finished the regular season with minus-0.2, 13.19, 8.8, minus-4.8 from 2020-21 through 2023-24, so he's ranged from good to mediocre in recent years. He's also getting up there in years at 35, which adds another layer of risk in addition to his recent history of inconsistency. It'd be safer to expect him to regress towards being an average starter this year than risk taking him ahead of some more reliable options.