This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.
The top MMA betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC Las Vegas card are up and courtesy of Drake Burden, who breaks down betting and lineup strategy, as well as offers predictions for the entire event.
Tyson Nam (21-12-1) v. Bruno Silva (12-5-2)
Tyson Nam - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 68" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 14 finishes in 21 wins
Bruno Silva - Height: 5'4" - Reach: 65" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 8 finishes in 12 wins
DFS Perspective: This is a closer fight than the odds indicate. Nam will be the more explosive striker, but neither guy lacks power. Silva will have the edge in grappling if he can get it down to the mat. Nam has never been taken down in the UFC, however (only four attempts). Nam has an excellent chance to smash value with an early finish, but he is too hittable for me, so I will ride with the favorite.
UFC Fight Night 221 Pick: Silva
Victor Henry (22-6-0) v. Tony Gravely (23-8-0)
Victor Henry - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 68" - Switch
~ High volume
~ Plus grappling
~ 14 finishes in 22 wins
Tony Gravely - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 69" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 23 wins
DFS Perspective: I disagree with the odds in this fight. Henry looked great in his debut but then faltered in his next fight. He will have the edge on the feet with striking and volume, while Gravely will have a significant edge on the mat with wrestling, although Henry does have solid takedown defense. Both guys have solid power, but Gravely will have the edge in competition, and I think that is the difference in this fight.
UFC Fight Night 221 Pick: Gravely
Ariane Lipski (14-8-0) v. JJ Aldrich 11-5-0)
Ariane Lipski - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 67" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus grappling
~ 9 finishes in 14 wins
JJ Aldrich - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 67" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 2 finishes in 11 wins
DFS Perspective: I expect a close fight on the feet but a dominant fight from Aldrich on the mat. Aldrich will likely look for takedowns early and keep control for the remainder of the round. Lipski does have a chance to find a submission if Aldrich makes a mistake, but I would not count on it. Aldrich should score well and is safe for all contests.
UFC Fight Night 221 Pick: Aldrich
Mario Bautista (11-2-0) v. Guido Cannetti (10-6-0)
Mario Bautista - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 69" - Switch
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 11 wins
Guido Cannetti - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 68" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 8 finishes in 10 wins
DFS Perspective: Cannetti has won a couple in a row against weaker competition but now draws a more challenging opponent in Bautista. I expect Cannetti to look decent early but to fade quickly and get finished by Bautista. Bautista is a safe play, although he is the most expensive on the slate.
UFC Fight Night 221 Pick: Bautista
Sedriques Dumas (7-0-0) v. Josh Fremd (9-4-0)
Sedriques Dumas - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 79" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 7 wins
Josh Fremd - Height: 6'4" - Reach: 76" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 9 wins
DFS Perspective: If Fremd was fighting on a full fight camp, I might consider him, but he is not and has little chance in this fight. Dumas looks like a future top-ten fighter, and I expect him to make quick work of Fremd in an exciting debut. He is excellent everywhere and should record an early finish, smashing value for DFS.
UFC Fight Night 221 Pick: Dumas
Raphael Assuncao (27-9-0) v. Davey Grant (12-6-0)
Raphael Assuncao - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 66" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 14 finishes in 28 wins
Davey Grant - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 69" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 14 wins
DFS Perspective: Assuncao, now 40, will be making his 19th UFC fight and is fresh off breaking his four-fight losing streak with a unanimous decision win. He is still a solid striker and wrestler but has definitely slowed with age. Grant, taking this fight on short notice, will be the aggressor and likely throw more volume with more power. He also has a little wrestling in his back pocket and should win a decision if he does not record a knockout.
UFC Fight Night 221 Pick: Grant
Karl Williams (7-1-0) v. Lukasz Brzeski (8-2-1)
Karl Williams - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 79" - Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 3 finishes in 7 wins
Lukasz Brzeski - Height: 6'4" - Reach: 78" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 7 finishes in 8 wins
DFS Perspective: This should be an exciting heavyweight bout between two lower-level fighters. Williams is making his debut fresh off of his Contender Series win in which he controlled his opponent for two-thirds of the fight. Brzeski will be coming in hot after being on the wrong side of a split decision in his debut. Williams will look for takedowns and control; if Brzeski avoids them, he should easily win this fight and score well as a dog.
UFC Fight Night 221 Pick: Brzeski
Vitor Petrino (7-0-0) v. Anton Turkalj (8-1-0)
Vitor Petrino - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 77" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 7 wins
Anton Turkalj - Height: 6'4" - Reach: 78" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 8 wins
DFS Perspective: This should be a banger for as long as it lasts. Petrino will have an edge on the feet and has incredible power. Turkalj also has considerable power but will have a significant edge on the ground with his grappling. If Turkalj weathers the early storm, I expect him to submit Petrino in the late rounds. A finish is likely in this fight, making it a must-play for DFS.
UFC Fight Night 221 Pick: Turkalj
Said Nurmagomedov (17-2-0) v. Jonathan Martinez (17-4-0)
Said Nurmagomedov - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 70" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus grappling
~ 9 finishes in 17 wins
Jonathan Martinez - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 70" – Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 10 finishes in 17 wins
DFS Perspective: The odds and pricing are disrespectful towards Martinez in this fight. I expect this to be 15 minutes of striking with a lot of back-and-forth action. Either guy could search for a takedown, but it would be unlikely. Said might be slightly more technical, but Martinez throws more volume. He will also have better kicks, particularly from his Southpaw stance, and will be my pick to win. At his price, any win would nail value.
UFC Fight Night 221 Pick: Martinez
Ricardo Ramos (16-4-0) v. Austin Lingo (9-1-0)
Ricardo Ramos - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 72" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 16 wins
Austin Lingo - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 70" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 5 finishes in 9 wins
DFS Perspective: If this were going to be a 15-minute striking affair, I would lean Lingo to pick up a huge upset win, as he should have the edge in striking and volume. However, Ramos should be looking to take this fight to the mat early and often, where he will have a considerable advantage. He also has a nasty spinning back elbow that he will likely throw several times looking for a knockout. The fight should remain close until it hits the mat. Ramos is the pick to win, but I do not trust him at his price.
UFC Fight Night 221 Pick: Ramos
Nikita Krylov (29-9-0) v. Ryan Spann (21-7-0)
Nikita Krylov - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 77" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 27 finishes in 29 wins
Ryan Spann - Height: 6'5" - Reach: 79" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 18 finishes in 21 wins
DFS Perspective: Another tight fight between well-rounded finishers. Both guys have similar skill sets. Krylov fights slightly more defensively and has better cardio. Spann has more power and a nasty guillotine. He is also more likely to record a finish in the first round. Pick your side and run with them. This fight will not go the distance -- whoever wins should smash value.
UFC Fight Night 221 Pick: Spann
Alexander Volkov (35-10-0) v. Alexandr Romanov (16-1-0)
Alexander Volkov - Height: 6'7" - Reach: 80" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 26 finishes in 35 wins
Alexandr Romanov - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 75" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 15 finishes in 16 wins
DFS Perspective: I expect Romanov to come out hot and finish this fight early. He lost his most recent fight after gassing out in round one. That should not happen again here. Volkov is a solid striker with the longer reach and will have some moments in the first round, but Romanov should get this to the mat early and finish it right then and there.
UFC Fight Night 221 Pick: Romanov
Petr Yan (16-4-0) v. Merab Dvalishvili (15-4-0)
Petr Yan - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 67" - Switch
~ Yan volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 16 wins
Merab Dvalishvili - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 68" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 4 finishes in 15 wins
DFS Perspective: I expect most of this fight to occur on the feet and likely up against the cage. Yan will have the advantage everywhere except for maybe wrestling. His takedown defense is elite, and he should be able to avoid the majority of takedowns attempted by Dvalishvili. However, Yan will not accept just sitting against the cage, and I foresee many knees from him while he is. He also has experience with five-round fights and competition.
UFC Fight Night 221 Pick: Yan
For more MMA DFS-specific content, check out our UFC Las Vegas DraftKings preview, or play around with your favorite combinations of fighters on our DFS MMA Lineup Optimizer.
FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 pts.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
