This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.
The top MMA betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC Paris card are up and courtesy of Drake Burden, who breaks down betting and lineup strategy, as well as offers predictions for the entire event.
Zarah Fairn (6-5-0) v. Jacqueline Cavalcanti (5-1-0)
Zarah Fairn - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 72" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 4 finishes in 6 wins
Jacqueline Cavalcanti - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 70" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 3 finishes in 5 wins
DFS Perspective: Fairn is now 39 and offers little outside of striking. Her most recent fight was close, but she ultimately lost to a fighter 6 inches shorter than her. Cavalcanti will be making her UFC after a promising start to her career in other promotions. I expect this to be a close fight to start and for Cavalcanti to pull ahead as the fight continues. Without a knockout, the score of this fight will likely be low and should only be considered for GPP contests.
UFC Paris Pick: Cavalcanti
Farid Basharat (10-0-0) v. Kleydson Rodrigues (8-2-0)
Farid Basharat - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 71" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 10 wins
Kleydson Rodrigues - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 67" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 8 wins
DFS Perspective: Both fighters are exciting young prospects with well-rounded games. While Rodrigues will have his chances, I expect Basharat to suffocate Rodrigues with his wrestling. The fight's winner likely scores well with volume and control time, and I would not be surprised if one of them had an early finish.
UFC Paris Pick: Basharat
Nora Cornolle (6-1-0) v. Joselyne Edwards (13-4-0)
Nora Cornolle - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 67" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 6 wins
Joselyne Edwards - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 70" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 13 wins
DFS Perspective: Cornolle is making her UFC debut after a run of six consecutive finishes in other promotions. She is primarily a striker with heavy hands and continuous forward pressure. Edwards is fighting for the second time in 2023, still looking for her first UFC finish. She tends to keep fights close, which has resulted in back-to-back split decision wins. It can be challenging to trust a newcomer who seems to rely solely on power, and Edwards has a tough chin. Cornolle makes a solid GPP play if she gets an early knockout, but i prefer the safe pick in Edwards.
UFC Paris Pick: Edwards
Ange Loosa (9-3-0) v. Rhys McKee (13-4-1)
Ange Loosa - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 74" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 9 wins
Rhys McKee - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 78" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 13 wins
DFS Perspective: This should be a striker vs. grappler match. Loosa got his first UFC win last time out, handing his opponent with his wrestling. McKee last fought in the UFC in 2020, losing twice, and was let go. Since then, he went on to rattle off three consecutive wins by knockout in the Cage Warriors promotion and is back for another shot in the UFC. Both guys have a path to a high DFS score, and it will go to the guy who can implement his game plan better. I like the dog to avoid being controlled and record an early knockout.
UFC Paris Pick: McKee
Morgan Charriere (18-9-1) v. Manolo Zecchini (11-3-0)
Morgan Charriere - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 69" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 10 wins
Manolo Zecchini - Height: 5'8 - Reach: 68" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 11 wins
DFS Perspective: A battle between two debuting prospects. I expect this to primarily be a striking match for as long as it lasts. Both fighters carry power in their hands, but it's Charriere who puts out more volume and pushes the tempo. In a fight with many question marks, I'll back the favorite.
UFC Paris Pick: Charriere
William Gomis (12-2-0) v. Yanis Ghemmouri (12-1-0)
William Gomis - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 73" - Southpaw
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 12 wins
Yanis Ghemmouri - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 69" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 12 wins
DFS Perspective: Gomis has won both of his UFC fights, though in unspectacular fashion. Ghemmouri will make his UFC debut with a 12-1 record throughout other promotions. Though Gomis will have a slight edge in experience, I prefer the well-rounded game of Ghemmouri. He should be the better striker and have the grappling to avoid danger with Gomis. I will back the dog to win and crush value for DFS.
UFC Paris Pick: Ghemmouri
Volkan Oezdemir (18-7-0) v. Bogdan Guskov (14-2-0)
Volkan Oezdemir - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 75" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 18 wins
Bogdan Guskov - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 76" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 14 finishes in 14 wins
DFS Perspective: Oezdemir is on a slide, having lost three of his last four, and needs to find a way into the win column. Guskov is making his UFC debut and looks to be a highly impressive fighter. He has insane power and incredible speed. Oezdemir has a considerable edge in experience and competition faced, but his low output and decreased power leaves much to be desired. Guskov tends to fight with his hands low, but I see him avoiding anything significant and winning by knockout.
UFC Paris Pick: Guskov
Benoit Saint-Denis (11-1-0) v. Thiago Moises (17-6-0)
Benoit Saint-Denis - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 73" - Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 11 wins
Thiago Moises - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 70" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 17 wins
DFS Perspective: Moises is typically a one-trick pony who will only look to grapple his way to victory. He is riding a two-fight win streak by rear naked choke, but he will have difficulty doing it a third time. Saint-Denis is riding an impressive three-fight winning streak with two submissions and one knockout. This will be another step up for the southpaw and one I expect him to manage. Another high-scoring finish is likely.
UFC Paris Pick: Saint Denis
Manon Fiorot (10-1-0) v. Rose Namajunas (11-5-0)
Manon Fiorot - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 65" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 10 wins
Rose Namajunas - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 65" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 11 wins
DFS Perspective: Thug Rose is back, making her return from her title defense loss. She is moving up from 115 to 125 to take on one of the hottest prospects in the UFC. Fiorot has been dominant in five UFC fights, showing virtually no weakness, and should get a title shot with another win or two. Namajunas's best bet is to get this fight to the mat and dominate with her wrestling, but getting it there will not be easy, as Fiorot is defending them at a clip over 80 percent. I expect this fight to start close but for Fiorot to take over as the fight goes on.
UFC Paris Pick: Fiorot
Ciryl Gane (11-2-0) v. Sergey Spivac (16-3-0)
Ciryl Gane - Height: 6'4" - Reach: 81" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 11 wins
Sergey Spivac - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 78" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 14 finishes in 16 wins
DFS Perspective: Gane returns to the Octagon nearly six months after his title fight loss, one in which he looked completely lost. Spivac last fought in February of this year, earning his third consecutive win by finish. I expect this to go one of two ways: Gane puts on a striking clinic and avoids the mat, or Spivac gets this to the mat and dominates ground control. Getting the right side of this fight will be the difference in many lineups. I will slide with the dog slightly due to the Gane's glaring weakness in takedown defense.
UFC Paris Pick: Spivac
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FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 pts.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
