This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
UFC Paris takes place Saturday, and Jon Litterine is back to break down the top fights, plus offer his DFS picks and predictions for the key matchups on the card.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $400k UFC Throwdown with $100k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Heavyweight
Ciryl Gane (11-2-0) v. Sergey Spivac (16-3-0)
DK Salaries: Gane ($8,700), Spivac ($7,500)
Vegas Odds: Gane (-155), Spivac (+130)
33 years of age and with all of 13 professional fights under his belt, Gane has already won the interim UFC Heavyweight Championship, although he's been really exposed in two of his past three fights. He couldn't defend a takedown in losses to Francis Ngannou and Jon Jones. Jones is understandable since he's a natural light heavyweight and highly-accomplished wrestler, but Ngannou is a pure power puncher with zero grappling game to speak of, and he managed to ground Gane for long stretches at a time.
I can absolutely guarantee that is what will be forthcoming from Spivac, who offers very little other than his wrestling game. The majority of Spivac fights are dull and boring compared to other heavyweights. He won's six of seven, with the lone defeat coming against Tom Aspinall. There's three knockouts and a submission in there, with the tapout coming against Derrick Lewis this past February. Spivac is just 28 years old and quality depth for a promotion that holds an event most every week, but I don't think we'll see him challenging for a title at any point during his UFC run.
My read on Gane has always been that he's an exceptional athlete for a big man, and also a work in progress as far as mixed martial arts go. He's well behind where he should be in terms of the number of professional fights he's had for his age. The good news is that he has less wear and tear on his body than some other guys, but that also leads to struggles in some areas.
Gane's ceiling is lightyears higher than Spivac's, and he's faced and defeated the better competition of the two, but Sergey absolutely has a skill set that can win him this fight.
Ciryl is going to get a boost from the event being in Paris, which matters, but that won't help him defend a takedown. In a fight scheduled for five rounds, I'm really worried he isn't going to be able to get back up to his feet if Spivac plants him on the mat, particularly early on when both men are fresh.
When all is said and done, there simply appears to be too much value on the Spivac side. He has never been submitted and knocked out just twice -- a low number for a heavyweight with nearly 20 pro fights under his belt. I like him to grind this thing to a halt and take a close decision.
UFC PARIS PICK: Spivac
Co-Main Event - Women's Flyweight
Manon Fiorot (10-1-0) v. Rose Namajunas (12-5-0)
DK Salaries: Fiorot ($8,900), Namajunas ($7,300)
Vegas Odds: Fiorot (-190), Namajunas (+160)
The big news here is Namajunas' move to flyweight. The former two-time UFC Women's Strawweight Champion, Rose dropped the title to Carla Esparza in May 2022 via split decision. It was a painfully boring bout, among the worst championship fights in company history, so I can see why Namajunas felt she needed a fresh start at 125 pounds. I'm still not sure it was the correct move, however.
Fiorot represents a still challenge for Rose's first foray at flyweight. The 33-year-old is 5-0 in the UFC. Her three most recent victories have come against Katlyn Chookagian, Jennifer Mai, and Mayra Bueno Silva. It's far from a murder's row of competition, but it's among the best the company has to offer in the thinnest division in the sport today.
I'm very curious to see how Rose goes about attacking Fiorot. Namajunas' striking has improved considerably over the years. As far as I'm concerned, it's been the most impressive aspect of her career to date. That said, Fiorot has way more pure power, in addition to have no ground game to speak of. Normally I'd advocate Rose trying to get her wrestling game going, but I'm not sure she'll have the same level of success with her grappling at a higher weight class.
The game plan for Fiorot in her home country is simple. Keep the fight upright, stand at distance and try to land power shots. I feel more comfortable at Manon's ability to implement her strategy than that of whatever Rose plans on doing.
The value from a DraftKings standpoint is on Rose. She's been a good fighter for a long time and $7,300 is a cheap salary given her past accomplishments, but I try to avoid competitors competing in a new weight class if at all possible, especially when they're 31 years of age.
I'm not sure how much the extra 10 pounds will help Namajunas as she's never had an issue getting to 115 in the past. I want to see her be effective at flyweight before I back her.
UFC PARIS PICK: Fiorot
Lightweight
Benoit Saint-Denis (11-1-0, 1NC) v. Thiago Moises (17-6-0)
DK Salaries: Saint Denis ($8,500), Moises ($7,700)
Vegas Odds: Saint Denis (-150), Moises (+125)
I've been immensely impressed with what I've seen from Saint Denis in his first four UFC bouts. He's won three straight (Ismael Bonfim, Gabriel Miranda, Niklas Stolze) via stoppage on the heels of a unanimous decision defeat to Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos in his company debut in October 2021. Saint Denis is tough, scrappy and a quality grappler. I'm not sure his ceiling is all that high, but you're going to get an honest, competent effort from him every time out.
Moises has more talent than his 6-4 UFC record would lead you to believe. He's an ace on the mat with limited power in his hands. The Brazilian is durable, being stopped via strikes just once in nearly 25 professional fights -- something that is crucial when you don't excel on the feet. He's another solid fighter whose ceiling is limited by competing in arguably the most loaded division in the company.
Rolling around on the mat with Moises is a potential recipe for disaster, but wrestling is a huge part of Saint Denis' game. He averages 3.8 takedowns per 15 minutes, while Thiago defends the takedown at a middling 60-percent clip. Benoit has shown a nice ability to rack up control time and grind away at his opposition. He'll have to be mindful of the submission if he gets Moises to the mat, but it remains his likely cleanest path to victory.
I'd be shocked if either of these men was able to get the other out of there quickly. It has all the makings of a back-and-forth affair in which both men generate a ton of offense.
I almost never advocate stacking in DFS for MMA because it's seemingly so rare both guys are active enough to make it pay off, but if you are the type to make a ton of lineups, I don't hate it in this instance.
I have time for Moises as an underdog, especially at $7,700, but I ultimately think Saint Denis gets this job done with the crowd firmly behind him.
UFC PARIS PICK: Saint-Denis
Light Heavyweight
Volkan Oezdemir (18-7-0) v. Bogdan Guskov (14-2-0)
DK Salaries: Oezdemir ($8,600), Guskov ($7,600)
Vegas Odds: Oezdemir (-185), Guskov (+155)
Volkan was originally scheduled to fight Azamat Murzakanov in this fight. "The Professional" withdrew about a month prior to the bout, which may be good news for Oezdemir considering Murzakanov is a perfect 3-0 in the UFC, including a pair of knockouts.
Oezdemir made a name for himself with some knockout victories early in his UFC run, but it's pretty much been all downhill since. Not coincidentally, the struggles directly coincided with a rise in competition. The soon-to-be 34-year-old is 3-6 in his past nine bouts, including losses in three of his last four. The light heavyweight division has next to zero depth, but I could see the company cutting its losses if Oezdemir has another poor outing here.
I admittedly know little about Guskov. The 30-year-old native of Uzbekistan has been fighting on the Russian and European regional scene, where's he been effective. All 14 of Guskov's victories have come via stoppage, including a dozen via knockout. There's a pretty good chance that Oezdemir, despite his recent struggles, is one of the best opponents Guskov has faced to date.
To say I'm pessimistic on Volkan's ability to turn it around would be an understatement. He's a one-dimensional brawler who is seemingly getting hit more than ever. His entire game plan consists of him hopefully landing a power shot which finishes his opponent before he gets cracked with one in return. If that shot doesn't land here, his run with the UFC could be over.
We've seen Oezdemir a lot and haven't seen Guskov at all, so I understand why the former is favored here, but I've been fading Volkan for quite a while now, primarily successfully, and I'll continue that here at both plus money and a cheap DK salary. Betting against Oezdemir's one-dimensional skill set and lack of durability is a winning long-term combination.
UFC PARIS PICK: Guskov
Other Bouts
Bantamweight
Yanis Ghemmouri (12-1-0) v. Caolan Loughran (8-0-0)
DK Salaries: Ghemmouri ($6,900), Loughran ($9,300)
Vegas Odds: Ghemmouri (+245), Loughran (-305)
UFC PARIS PICK: Loughran
Featherweight
Morgan Charriere (18-9-1) v. Manolo Zecchini (11-3-0)
DK Salaries: Charriere ($9,100), Zecchini ($7,100)
Vegas Odds: Charriere (-305), Zecchini (+245)
UFC PARIS PICK: Charriere
Women's Bantamweight
Zarah Fairn (6-4-0) v. Jacqueline Cavalcanti (5-1-0)
DK Salaries: Fairn ($6,800), Cavalcanti ($9,400)
Vegas Odds: Fairn (+285), Cavalcanti (-360)
UFC PARIS PICK: Cavalcanti
Women's Bantamweight
Nora Cornolle (6-1-0) v. Joselyne Edwards (13-4-0)
DK Salaries: Cornolle ($7,900), Edwards ($8,300)
Vegas Odds: Cornolle (+100), Edwards (-120)
UFC PARIS PICK: Cornolle
Welterweight
Ange Loosa (9-3-0) v. Rhys McKee (10-4-1)
DK Salaries: Loosa ($8,800), McKee ($7,400)
Vegas Odds: Loosa (-170), McKee (+140)
UFC PARIS PICK: Loosa
Bantamweight
Farid Basharat (10-0-0) v. Kleydson Rodrigues (8-2-0)
DK Salaries: Basharat ($9,200), Rodrigues ($7,000)
Vegas Odds: Basharat (-310), Rodrigues (+250)
UFC PARIS PICK: Basharat
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available, before searching elsewhere. Stay up to date for UFC Paris with more MMA betting content.
DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
