This article is part of our UFC Picks series.
The UFC heads to Kansas City, Missouri on Saturday, April 15. In the main event, a banger of a featherweight fight goes down as Max Holloway takes on Arnold Allen.
Below, I'll share my favorite play, an underdog, a prop and a two-fighter parlay. All odds are via the DraftKings Sportsbook and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
Weight Class: Featherweight
Billy Quarantillo (17-4) vs. Edson Barboza (22-11)
In the co-main event, Billy Quarantillo takes on Edson Barboza, and I like Quarantillo to win this one.
Barboza has been up-and-down at featherweight, and while he is sill super dangerous, I do think he is slowing down and he has taken a ton of damage. He was dropped by Bryce Mitchell in his last fight and TKO'd by Giga Chikadze before that, and he now takes on Quarantillo, who is someone that has insane cardio and pressure.
I do expect the first round to go Barboza's way with his kicks -- especially leg kicks -- but Quarantillo usually loses the first round, as he did to Alexander Hernandez. In the second round, however, I expect Quarantillo to be right in Barboza's face and not let him get a break. He'll really start to wear on him with his punches and get a late-second or third-round TKO win.
UFC Kansas City Best Bet: Billy Quarantillo (-180)
Weight Class: Light Heavyweight
Tanner Boser (20-9-1) vs. Ion Cutelaba (16-9-1)
Tanner Boser is finally making the move down to light heavyweight, which is something he should have done for years. He was a smaller heavyweight and many asked him about making the move down, which he originally said wouldn't happen. After dropping some close fights, however, he is making the move to face Ion Cutelaba, who could be fighting for his job.
Before I look at the odds, I make the odds myself to help me with my picks, and I actually lined Boser at (-150). To see him as the underdog is very surprising. The way to beat Cutelaba is evident, as if you can get past that first round, you can take him down and either submit him or catch him as he gets tired.
Boser has all the tools to wear on Cutelaba with his clinch game, which will tire him out and result in a late stoppage win. The only concern I have is Boser's chin cutting down to 205lbs, but I think it will be fine, so give me the plus money on the Canadian.
UFC Kansas City Best Bet: Tanner Boser (+105)
Weight Class: Featherweight
Max Holloway (23-7) vs. Arnold Allen (19-1)
The main event of UFC Kansas City should be an exciting fight between Max Holloway and Arnold Allen. Holloway is coming off his third loss to Alexander Volkanovski, but he has proven he is better than every other featherweight. That will be put to the test as he takes on Allen, who is undefeated in the UFC.
This should be primarily a kickboxing fight, but I wouldn't be surprised if Holloway mixed in a few takedowns (as he did against Yair Rodriguez to help him win the rounds).
Although I do think Holloway wins this fight and likely by decision, I like the over 4.5 rounds in this one. Holloway is extremely durable, as he has only ever been finished once in his career -- which was his UFC debut to Dustin Poirier. He also isn't known for his finishes, as his last seven fights have gone the distance.
Allen, meanwhile, has had six of his last nine go the distance, but one of those stoppages was Kattar tearing his ACL, while another was TKO'ing Dan Hooker, who admitted he should have never cut down to 145lbs.
Both Holloway and Allen are durable, and rather than play a side, I'll take the over 4.5 rounds.
UFC Kansas City Best Bet: Holloway-Allen over 4.5 rounds (-115)
Weight Classes: Featherweight & Lightweight
Bill Algeo (16-7) vs. TJ Brown (17-9)
Rafa Garcia (15-3) vs. Clay Guida (38-22)
For my parlay, I'm taking Bill Algeo to beat TJ Brown and Rafa Garcia to get his hand raised against Clay Guida.
Algeo is a much better striker than Brown, but the concern here is Algeo's takedown defense. It has been just a mediocre 55 percent in his UFC career, so Brown will be after a ton of takedowns in this fight. I do like Algeo's scrambling abilities that even if he gets taken down, however, so I do think he will be able to get back up and on the feet. Once there, he should be able to piece up Brown to win a decision rather comfortably.
In the other leg, I'm taking Garcia to beat Guida, who has lost a step and will be in tough against Garcia, who can mix in his striking and wrestling well. I do worry about Guida's chin, as we have seen him get rocked in his last couple of fights, while Garcia also has the ability to submit him.
To me, the only way Guida wins is to catch Garcia and KO him, but he has proven to have a good chin. So, I expect this to be a one-sided fight and Garcia to even get a stoppage win at some point.
UFC Kansas City Best Bet: Bill Algeo & Rafa Garcia parlay (+108)
UFC Kansas City Best Bets:
Here is a recap of my best bets for this weekend's UFC Kansas City event:
- Billy Quarantillo (-180)
- Tanner Boser (+105)
- Max Holloway-Arnold Allen over 4.5 rounds (-115)
- Bill Algeo & Rafa Garcia parlay (+108)
For up-to-date information on the latest odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the UFC odds page on RotoWire.
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