Top Picks and Predictions for UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira
UFC 317 is a card that may be getting overlooked in terms of relevance, as two title fights sit atop a slate full of intriguing matchups. We'll take a look at each bout across three platforms, including a former champion's quest to stop a behemoth, and a kickboxer looking to weather a storm and come out clean on the other side. Our betting lines this week come from The RotoWire MMA betting page and are accurate to the post date of this article.
UFC Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Alexandre Pantoja ($9,000)
Pantoja's constant pressure will likely negate the speed of Kai Kara-France, as "Don't Blink" tends to yield space to his opponents before exploding into combinations. Kara-France sports a robust 88 percent takedown defense rate, but "The Cannibal" should be able to work the 32-year-old over in the clinch if he cannot consistently get the fight to the ground. It's also worth noting that Pantoja has never been finished in 34 professional fights.
Charles Oliveira ($6,900)
Any analysis of the bout between Oliveira and Ilia Topuria has to begin with the acknowledgment that Topuria hits incredibly hard, and "Do Bronx" gets hurt in most of his fights. When I picked Oliveira to be lightweight champion at the end of 2025, it had to do with the dynamics of the division, as it seems the Brazilian is on the short list of fighters who are always one win away from a title shot. While this opponent is not who I was expecting, Oliveira will have his chances here, as Topouira is a small lightweight, and the former champion showed a more active wrestling game in his latest win over Michael Chandler. As lethal as he has been at featherweight, Topuria was nearly headkicked into oblivion by middling contender Jai Herbert during his only fight in this weight class. Topuria's speed and heavy hands make him a rightful favorite to capture the vacant title, but enough questions are hanging over his head to make Oliveira worth a shot as a massive underdog.
Brandon Royval ($8,200)
I'm a big fan of Joshua Van and his all-offense style, but this fight against Royval is likely happening too soon. A four-inch height advantage should make it difficult for Van to get on the inside, while the speed and creativity of Royval will likely shut down the pressure that makes "The Fearless" so successful. We should also point out that Royval is comfortable fighting going forward and off his back foot. This is a style of opponent Van has not faced since his knockout loss to Charles Johnson in July.
Renato Moicano ($8,400)
The bout between Moicano and Beneil Dariush would be more interesting if both men were in their prime. However, Dariush has been knocked out badly in each of his last two fights and will be stepping into the cage for the first time in over a year. The former title contender has never been fleet of foot, which makes me wonder how he will deal with an agile opponent who hits hard, throws a stinging jab, and can initiate grappling sequences. It would hardly be surprising to see another quick knockout here, but Moicano could easily put a pace on an out-of-form Dairush, breaking him with pressure over three rounds.
Hyder Amil ($7,700)
If Andreas Gustafsson's mauling of Khaos Williams taught me anything, it's that dealing with a fighter who wants nothing more than to engage in a clinch can be a daunting task. This should be a particularly tough assignment for Jose Miguel Delgado, who needs space to work his kicking game and explode into attacks. Like Gustafsson, Amil's strategy is to take damage to get position. This will always leave the door open for a knockout, but I am not sure a young fighter will know how to handle the overwhelming pressure and offense of someone like Amil.
Christopher Ewert ($8,400)
I was reluctantly picking Jackson McVey to beat Sedriques Dumas due to the latter's many deficiencies, but I am happy to slide over to Ewert, who became a slight favorite against McVey once Dumas was pulled from the contest. Regional film on McVey reveals him to be a fighter who uses his size and length to dominate in the clinch or wrap up submissions on the ground. Ewert is also big for the division and is especially good at marrying punches with kicks in combination. McVey could once again use his size to dictate terms, but that should prove difficult against an agile, powerful opponent.
Felipe Lima ($8,700)
Lima can be his own worst enemy with high-risk, low-reward attacks, but if he can stay within himself, I expect the Brazilian to have a nice showing against Payton Talbott. Lima will have advantages in speed, power, and strength here, which should allow him to dictate where this fight goes and take advantage of Talbott's lack of defense.
Try out these recommended fighters with different lineup combinations on our DraftKings UFC Lineup Optimizer.
UFC Plays to Consider on PrizePicks - Significant Strikes
Viviane Araujo OVER 47.5 Significant Strikes, Jacobe Smith UNDER 25.5 Significant Strikes, and Jhonata Diniz UNDER 26.5 Significant Strikes
Tracy Cortez is a wrestler who has never been afraid to strike in the pocket if she is unable to get the fight to the ground. Araujo will come into this bout with an 80 percent takedown defense rate and should be able to use evasive footwork to stick and move against a relatively flat-footed opponent.
I was surprised to see Smith's significant strike line in the 20s after he needed just 12 to knock out Preston Parsons in his UFC debut. Niko Price has always been a fighter who will meet his opponents in the middle of the cage and swing hammers. "Cobe" should have the speed and technique to come out on top here, but I expect whoever wins to do so quickly.
Diniz has hurt every opponent he has faced in the UFC, and I expect this to happen sooner rather than later against Newcomer Alvin Hines. "Goozie" is a particularly slow heavyweight, and while he can employ a single-leg takedown, this is such a slow and mechanical process that Diniz should be able to stay upright. Hines will be in trouble every second this fight is in space, and it shouldn't take long before Diniz closes the show.
Interested in backing this or other selections on sites like PrizePicks? Check out the Best MMA Picks & Prop Bets by comparing lines to our projections using the RotoWire Picks & Props tool.
UFC Bets to Consider
Jack Hermansson (+185)
I'm essentially betting that Hermansson outlasts the powerful and athletic Gregory Rodrigues, who has been known to slow down late in fights. Hermansson has always been a durable fighter, and his physicality should ensure that "Robocob" is unable to bring the fight to the ground. As long as he can endure punishment early, "The Joker" should be able to take over this fight in rounds two and three.
Slava Borshchev Wins via KO/TKO (+230)
Terrance McKinney is approaching his 12th UFC fight and still seems out of ideas if he can't best his opponent in the first few minutes. By contrast, Borshchev is a patient and methodical kickboxer who can withstand damage and is constantly improving his defensive wrestling. If McKinney doesn't find the putaway shot early, Borshchev should be able to roll downhill until he finds a finish.
For more UFC wagers to consider, check out our MMA Best Bets for UFC 317 this weekend. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
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