This article is part of our UFC Picks series.
International Fight Week is upon us as the UFC returns to the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada for a solid UFC 290 card. The main event sees featherweight champion Alexander Volkanovski taking on Yair Rodriguez.
Below, I'll share my favorite play, an underdog, a prop and a two-fighter parlay. All odds are via the DraftKings Sportsbook and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
Weight Class: Light heavyweight
Jimmy Crute (12-3-1) vs. Alonzo Menifield (13-3-1)
Jimmy Crute and Alonzo Menifield fought to a draw back in February in a wild fight. Menifield won the first two rounds, nearly finishing Crute with strikes (he was nearly out on his feet multiple times). Yet, in the third round, Crute turned to his wrestling and dominated Menifield to secure a 10-8 round and force the draw.
This time around, I think Crute goes to his wrestling right away, as he knows he can keep Menifield on the ground -- even when he is rocked. If the Kiwi fights smart, Crute will be able to wrestle early and often, just as Devin Clark did, and either win a decision or get a submission.
The KO is a worry here backing Crute, but at -120, I think that is good value for someone who showed he can dominate Menifield if he wrestles.
UFC 290 Best Bet: Jimmy Crute (-120)
Weight Class: Flyweight
Shannon Ross (13-7) vs. Jesus Aguilar (8-2)
Shannon Ross is 2-3 in his last five and lost by TKO on the Contender Series, but it was later revealed he fought with appendicitis, so the UFC eventually signed him. In his debut, he suffered a 59-second TKO loss, proving the way to beat Ross has been by knocking him out.
At UFC 290, Ross faces Jesus Aguilar, who is a grappler and doesn't have much power. Effectively, I think Ross can keep this fight standing, as he does have good takedown defense. On the feet, he is the better striker, as he throws a ton of volume.
I'm banking on Ross' chin being able to withstand shots from Aguilar. If it can, I expect Ross to win a decision by out-voluming Aguilar.
UFC 290 Best Bet: Shannon Ross (+120)
Weight Class: Strawweight
Yazmin Jauregui (10-0) vs. Denis Gomes (7-2)
On the prelims, Yazmin Jauregui gets her third UFC assignment, and she is a prospect I am very high on. Although she was a finisher on the regional scene and got the stoppage in her last fight, I like her to win by decision here against Gomes.
Strawweights don't usually finish fights all that often, and as we saw in the Loma Lookboonmee fight, Gomes was durable, as she lost a decision.
Jauregui has great takedown defense and should be able to keep the fight standing. On the feet, she will piece up Gomes. I trust Gomes' chin and ability to withstand the shots enough to go the three rounds, but Jauregui will win a one-sided decision.
UFC 290 Best Bet: Yazmin Jauregui by decision (+110)
Weight Classes: Featherweight & Flyweight
Alexander Volkanovski (25-2) vs. Yair Rodriguez (15-3)
Brandon Moreno (21-6-2) vs. Alexandre Pantoja (25-5)
For my parlay, I'm taking both the champions -- Alexander Volkanovski and Brandon Moreno -- to defend their titles.
In the co-main event, Moreno is taking on Alexandre Pantoja. He is 0-2 against Pantoja in his career, although one fight was on TUF and an exhibition. However, since those fights, Moreno has gotten miles better. His striking is much more polished, but the biggest improvement has been his grappling. Pantoja's path to victory is to take Moreno down and submit him, but I think the Mexican will be able to defend the takedowns and piece up Pantoja on the feet.
In the other leg, I'm backing Volkanovski to beat Rodriguez. To me, the Aussie is leaps and bounds better than every other featherweight. The Mexican is a very dynamic and flashy striker, but Volkanovski is a more technical striker and has solid grappling to complement that.
In this one, I expect Volkanovski to use his wrestling to control Rodriguez and possibly even get a ground-and-pound TKO. Regardless of method, I like Volkanovski to cruise to a win here.
UFC 290 Best Bets: Alexander Volkanovski & Brandon Moreno parlay (-109)
UFC 290 Best Bets
Here is the recap of this weekend's UFC 290 best bets:
- Jimmy Crute (-120)
- Shannon Ross (+120)
- Yazmin Jauregui by decision (+110)
- Alexander Volkanovski & Brandon Moreno (-109)
For up-to-date information on the latest odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the UFC odds page on RotoWire.
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