Cook Out 400 Preview: Playoff Hunt Intensifies

We return from the road racing of Watkins Glen and head to Richmond, Virginia and Richmond Raceway this weekend for the 25th race of the season and approaching a climax in the run up to the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs. During the earlier years of the Chase era, this had been the track where NASCAR ended its regular season and determined the field for the playoffs. However, the schedule got a shakeup a few seasons ago, and NASCAR decided to move this event into the 10 races of the playoff. This changed in 2022 as the sanctioning body decided to return Richmond back into the races that lead up to the cutoff to make the playoffs. The urgency and the heated competition will be different this weekend. Instead of trying to advance in the post-season, drivers will instead be trying to make it into the playoff field of drivers as the clock is rapidly winding down on this regular season. This Richmond race will have a different feel, but all the same importance as the past. Drivers will be going all out to grab that valuable win that transfers them into the playoff field. As we saw at Indianapolis and Iowa a few weeks ago, drivers are taking chances at this point in the season that they have not up until this point. That will make for higher stakes, more contact, harder racing and when we put that on the small oval at Richmond Raceway, we're sure to be thrilled by what we see take place. 

Since Richmond's oval is a short track with its own group of dominant drivers, let's take a quick look at the recent history of this facility and see who will be running up front this weekend. The short tracks usually produce familiar names when it comes to driver efficiency, so some of these drivers should look familiar as compared to Iowa Speedway which was run just a couple weeks ago. The urgency to make the playoff field will have an impact on performances, but we still expect the short track aces to have the best outings at Richmond. Here are the loop stats for the last 39 races at Richmond Raceway.

This is the first and only visit of the 2025 season at Richmond Raceway. If we look back to the race last August, we get very good vibes for the No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing team and Denny Hamlin. The star driver started on pole and led 124 laps before finally finishing runner-up to a surprising Austin Dillon. NASCAR overtime would open the door for Dillon to forge the upset, but it was unmistakably a night for Hamlin to shine. He's a five-time Richmond winner and that was his fourth runner-up finish at Richmond since just the 2021 season. We expect Hamlin and his Joe Gibbs Racing team will be locked-in for another Richmond battle this Saturday night.   

In addition to Hamlin, there were several suitors who challenged for that Richmond win earlier this season. Chief among them were Christopher Bell and Tyler Reddick. Both are trying to improve their performance for the quickly approaching playoffs, so the return to Richmond will be welcome for both of those drivers. We'll highlight them, along with other short track specialists and give you the drivers you need to dominate your fantasy league this weekend at Richmond Raceway for the Cook Out 400.

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Denny Hamlin – Hamlin is coming off a bit of a rough patch the past couple races, but he should rebound solidly at Richmond. The good news is that two of his four victories this season have come on short tracks, so he should be eager to return to Virginia this weekend. Richmond Raceway has yielded five victories, 20 Top-5 finishes (56-percent) and over 2,300 career laps led at the Virginia short track. Hamlin grabbed his fourth runner-up finish at Richmond Raceway since the 2021 season with his effort in this event one year ago. The Joe Gibbs Racing star has won or finished runner-up in his last three Richmond starts. That's stellar by any measure. Hamlin will be a top driver to beat at Richmond Raceway.    

William Byron – Byron has been heating up in recent races. A win at Iowa a couple weeks ago ended a long dry spell, and he followed it up with a Top 5 at Watkins Glen this past week. Now the driver of the No. 24 Chevrolet sets his sights on the short track in Richmond. Byron hasn't had much success here with just a 23-percent Top-10 rate and 15.0 average finish. However, we believe he'll be a driver to watch closely in the Cook Out 400. Byron has led 239 laps here since 2022 so he's no stranger to racing up front at Richmond Raceway. He seems to be putting all together prior to this visit to Virginia and his short track numbers this season have been strong (1 pole, 1 win, 60-percent Top-10 rate) so it looks like a good weekend developing for Byron. 

Chase Briscoe – One of the hottest drivers the last two months is Briscoe and his Joe Gibbs Racing team. They're fresh off a Top 5 at Watkins Glen and have nabbed one win, three runner-up finishes and five Top-5 finishes since his Pocono victory in late June. Briscoe has been strong on the short tracks this season with two runner-up finishes and four Top-10 finishes (80-percent) and a strong 10.4 average finish on the bull rings. This veteran driver has never produced a Top 10 in eight prior Richmond starts, which may lead some fantasy players to pan Briscoe this weekend. We believe that would be a big mistake. He's currently redefining expectations on several tracks and has finished runner-up in the last two short track events (Dover and Iowa).    

Christopher Bell – The Joe Gibbs Racing youngster has been almost flawless at Richmond Raceway in his six-season Cup Series career. Bell owns four Top-5 and seven Top-10 finishes in his nine Richmond starts for a dazzling 78-percent Top-10 rate and miniscule 7.3 average finish at the Virginia short track. The driver of the No. 20 Toyota has led 230 laps at Richmond during this time and he finished an impressive sixth-place here in his last two Richmond starts. Bell has been a supreme short track performer in 2025 with one pole, one win, two Top-5 and three Top-10 finishes to go along with nearly 200 laps led. Bell and his Joe Gibbs Racing team are not to be underestimated in this Cook Out 400.        

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Brad Keselowski – The owner/driver of the No. 6 Ford has seemingly turned the corner on his short track struggles of earlier this season in more recent races. Keselowski has nabbed one Top-5 and two Top-10 finishes at both Dover and Iowa recently. That's a really good sign heading into Saturday night's Cook Out 400. He's a two-time Richmond winner and as recently as the 2020 season. Keselowski's 15 Top-10 finishes at the track net a strong 50-percent Top-10 rate at Richmond Raceway and hold down a respectable career 12.1 average finish. The veteran driver has three Top 10's in his last four Richmond starts and is coming off a strong third-place finish at the Iowa short track a couple weeks ago.

Kyle Larson – Larson has had an up-and-down season to this point, but he's been pretty consistent on the short tracks in 2025. He grabbed a win at Bristol back in the spring and has four Top-5 finishes (80-percent) on ovals one-mile in size and less. He flopped recently at Iowa and so we have moved him from the contender to the solid plays list this week. Larson's two victories and 10 Top-10 finishes at Richmond have all come since the 2016 season. He boasts a win and five Top 10's in his last seven starts at Richmond Raceway, including his victory in the 2023 Toyota Owners 400. The driver of the No. 5 Chevrolet finished seventh in this event one year ago and that's a good mark to expect for this Saturday night.

Chase Elliott – Elliott does not have the kind of Richmond stats that inspire much confidence, however, he has been turning his performances there more positive in recent seasons. Elliott owns three Top-5 and four Top-10 finishes in his last six Richmond Raceway starts. That has increased his Top-10 rate at the oval to 47-percent and lowered his average finish to a sharp 10.7. The driver of the No. 9 Chevrolet has been pretty consistent on short tracks in 2025, with three Top-10 finishes which work out to a strong 9.8 average finish on ovals one-mile in size and less. Elliott nabbed a steady ninth-place finish in his last Richmond start, which came in this event one year ago. 

Joey Logano – Logano has enjoyed some success this season on the circuit's short tracks. A pair of Top-10 and four Top-15 finishes have the veteran driver sitting at a respectable 13.6 average finish on the bull ring circuit. The Penske Racing star is a two-time Richmond winner and his 19 Top-10 finishes at the track check in at a strong 61-percent rate. The career average finish at the Virginia short track is a tidy 10.0. Coming off a ninth-place finish in our last short track event at Iowa a couple weeks ago, Logano appears to be visiting Richmond Raceway at just the right time. He'll be one of Ford's top performers in this 400-mile short track battle. 

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Richmond & solid upside

Ryan Blaney – Blaney has been a consistent performer on the short tracks this season. Qualifying well has especially been a top priority of the Penske Racing No. 12 team. Blaney has converted that good starting track position into two Top-5 and three Top-10 finishes. Richmond Raceway isn't Blaney's favorite short track, but he's had some good performances here since 2021. He's grabbed three Top-10 and six Top-15 finishes in his last eight Richmond starts. The veteran driver finished 11th-place in this event one year ago and that should really be his fantasy racing floor this Saturday night. Blaney has never won a Cup race at this track and isn't a likely candidate for victory lane this weekend. However, Blaney brings enough to the table to warrant sleeper status.  

Chris Buescher – Buescher has been an up-and-down performer on the small ovals this season, so we're giving him sleeper status for the Cook Out 400. The Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing driver has grabbed two Top-10 finishes on ovals one-mile in size and less this year. Buescher won this event two seasons ago for his first-career Richmond victory and he's grabbed three Top-10's at Richmond Raceway in his last five attempts there. This oval has not been a career-long successful track for Buescher, but he's been pretty sharp at Richmond since the 2022 season. His ninth-place finish recently at Dover is likely a good comp and level of expectation for Richmond Raceway.  

Bubba Wallace – Wallace rides a four-race Top-10 streak into Virginia this week and will look to keep the roll going Saturday night in the Cook Out 400. The 23XI Racing driver has not been a good Richmond performer of the years (20.4 average finish) but he did grab a career-best Richmond finish in this event last season with a strong fourth-place effort. The notes from that outing will come in handy this weekend. Wallace has been solid on the short tracks in 2025 with three Top-10 finishes to this point, including a strong sixth-place a couple weeks ago at Iowa Speedway. All the indicators point towards a Top-10 finish for this driver and team at the Richmond oval.  

Alex Bowman – The one-time Richmond winner wasn't very sharp early in his career at the ¾-mile oval in Virginia, but Bowman has come on in more recent times. Since the 2020 season he's accumulated a win and four Top-10 finishes in his last eight Richmond Raceway starts for a respectable 44-percent Top-10 rate during this recent span. The Hendrick Motorsports veteran hasn't been shabby on the short tracks in 2025 with three Top-10 finishes in five starts (60-percent) on the one-mile and smaller ovals. We don't expect the No. 48 Chevrolet to be battling it out among the leaders late Sunday afternoon at Richmond, but we do expect Bowman to be one of those back-end Top-10 teams after 400-laps.

Austin Dillon – The winner of this event one year ago isn't likely to defend his Richmond crown this weekend, but Dillon makes a sneaky good fantasy racing play. The driver of the No. 3 Chevrolet carries a 33-percent Top-10 rate at Richmond Raceway and reasonably good 15.9 average finish at the track spread across 21 starts. Dillon has been a steady short track performer this season, despite his struggles on the intermediate and larger ovals. The veteran driver has two Top-10 and four Top-15 finishes on the small ovals for a reasonably good 13.0 average finish. Dillon is coming off a steady 10th-place finish at Iowa Speedway just a couple weeks ago.

Ross Chastain – The veteran driver of the No. 1 Chevrolet offers some fantasy racing upside this week. Chastain seems to have turned the corner on some of his earlier season struggles in recent outings. The short tracks have been pretty consistent throughout 2025. He owns two Top-10 and four Top-15 finishes on the small ovals for a tight 13.6 average finish. Most recently at Iowa, Chastain was a steady 11th-place finisher in the Iowa Corn 350. Richmond Raceway has offered some mixed success to this driver and team over the years, but Chastain has two of his best Richmond outings in his last four attempts. He nabbed a third-place at the track in 2023 and a fifth-place at Richmond in this event last season.

Slow Down – Drivers to avoid this week

Kyle Busch – Richmond Raceway is statistically Busch's best short track on the circuit. The Richard Childress Racing star has six-career victories and a whopping 19 Top-5 finishes at the Virginia short track. The driver of the No. 8 Chevrolet clearly knows how to run up front at Richmond, and the numbers bear this out. However, we're calling for the fade this week as Busch is currently struggling from week-to-week. With just one Top-10 finish in his last five events, Busch has slid to 15th-place in the championship driver standings. The short tracks have been a real puzzle this season with just one Top 10 in five starts on ovals one-mile and less in size. Busch finished a subpar 20th-place at the comparable Iowa Speedway just a couple weeks ago.

Daniel Suarez – Even though Suarez posted his first Top 10 in several weeks this past Sunday at Watkins Glen, we're calling for the fade this round at Richmond Raceway. The driver of the No. 99 Chevrolet has labored tremendously with short tracks this season. Suarez has no Top-20 finishes in five starts and an average finish of 25.6 on the Cup Series short tracks in 2025. That includes his 25th-place effort at Iowa just a couple weeks ago. Suarez has 15-career starts at Richmond Raceway and only four Top 10's to his credit (27-percent). He's never DNF'd at the Virginia oval and that's the good news. However, Suarez is likely heading towards another mid-20's finish again this Saturday night in the Cook Out 400.        

Michael McDowell – With 27-career starts at Richmond Raceway, McDowell is one of the more experienced drivers at this small oval. However, his results have been pretty thin here for years. The Spire Motorsports veteran has just one Top 10 in those efforts for a lowly 4-percent Top-10 rate and 29.4 average finish. Short tracks have been a tough puzzle for the No. 71 Chevrolet team this season. McDowell has a pair of Top 15's but also three finishes outside the Top 25. The 21.8 average finish on short tracks doesn't instill much confidence in McDowell or this team this weekend. He's a driver to pan in weekly lineup and salary cap leagues at Richmond Raceway.  

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. – The HYAK Motorsports driver has always been known for his superspeedway and intermediate oval exploits, much less so for his short track accomplishments. Stenhouse has had a tough season on the bull rings with only one Top-20 finish and an inflated 23.8 average finish. Most recently he struggled to a 33rd-place finish at Iowa Speedway. Stenhouse has 23-career starts at Richmond Raceway but only two Top-10 finishes in those efforts (9-percent) for a high 21.6 average. The last two Richmond outings the veteran driver slogged to 33rd- and 36th-place finishes last season. He's to be passed up this week in all fantasy racing formats.