Cook Out Southern 500 Preview: Let the Playoffs Begin

The Track Too Tough to Tame is the next stop on the NASCAR Cup Series schedule. Darlington Raceway is an egg-shaped 1.366-mile oval and is really unlike any other race track on the circuit. It's not an intermediate oval and not a superspeedway, but somewhere in between. The course has two distinctly different sets of turns. Turns 3 and 4 are much narrower than turns 1 and 2. This is a challenging aspect for crew chiefs as the handling setup for the stock cars is a bit more complex. You have to find a happy "middle ground" for your handling set up so that one set of turns doesn't upset the car. All this combined with the 23 – 25-degree variable banking, and wide racing grooves makes for some of the most exciting, side-by-side racing that NASCAR has to offer. 

The first thing that the casual fan will notice when watching a race at Darlington Raceway is how high the cars run through the turns. On most ovals, the preferred line is low and tight to the inside lines, but Darlington is a very unique facility. Most drivers prefer to run the high line right out next to the wall and carry that momentum into the straight-aways as they accelerate coming out of the turns. This historic oval's unique configuration almost always makes the high groove the fastest way around the race track. Considering that we just came from the three-wide racing action of Daytona, we're in for a big change this weekend. The rim-riding action under the lights of Darlington on Sunday night can be as entertaining as any event in the NASCAR Cup Series schedule.

The second Darlington race of the season has recently been held as last race of the regular season and the cut event to qualify for the Cup Series playoffs. However, NASCAR shook up the schedule and has moved this thrilling night race back to its usual spot as the event to kick off the Cup Series playoffs. The urgency to qualify for the playoffs has been replaced with the urgency to start the playoffs well and to get a good start on the 10-race schedule that determines the NASCAR champion. You'll see some risks taken, but you'll also see some measured racing as the field vying for the title will not want to eliminate themselves in the opening race. A win qualifies a driver to advance into the second round of the playoffs so you will see some gambles, potentially in the race/pit strategy department. Grabbing a win at Darlington can mean a ticket deep into the playoffs.    

Figuring out our driver group this weekend won't be too much of a challenge. The recent hot streaks coming into the weekend will prove to be a bit of a wrinkle, but historical trends should run pretty true. We have already raced once at Darlington earlier this season, so we have very good and very recent data to examine. There is small group of drivers that perform well at the South Carolina oval, and as you will see in the table below, they're quite easy to identify. The loop stats in the table below cover the last 20 years or 27 races at Darlington Raceway.

When we take a look at the loop stats in the table above, we immediately notice that there is quite a bit of parity between the different manufacturers and super stables in the NASCAR Cup Series at Darlington. Chevrolet, Ford and Toyota have each visited victory lane in the last four races at the South Carolina oval. Toyota's victory here earlier in the season snapped a six-race drought for that manufacturer at the egg-shaped track. Chevrolet drivers have had the least success at the facility in the last two seasons. Ford drivers swept the two Darlington events in 2024, so the blue oval brand will be on the path to get back into victory lane at the Track Too Tough to Tame this weekend.   

The 2025 season has seen a lot of parity among the different manufacturers and there have been some momentum swings throughout. Chevrolet has won the last four races, so they are under heavy scrutiny for the start of the playoffs. Darlington would seem to be up for grabs this Sunday but it appears the bowtie brand have the inside track for the moment. Denny Hamlin returned Toyota to victory lane here in April of this year for the first time since 2021. The race would feature only four lead changes as William Byron would dominate most of the event. However, it would be Hamlin that would rise to the occasion late thanks in part to NASCAR overtime to take the win. The prior two Darlington events had gone to drivers from the Ford camp. Brad Keselowski and Chase Briscoe had given Ford that win streak. Considering that Ford and Toyota drivers have controlled Darlington Raceway of late, it will be interesting to see if Chevrolet can climb back into the Darlington picture with the playoffs getting underway. Outlined below are the fantasy racing drivers you need to put in your lineups for Sunday night's Cook Out Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway.

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Denny Hamlin – Hamlin has had an inconsistent season, but he's still managed to scratch the win column four times in the regular season. He's always dangerous at his best tracks and we expect him to be at Darlington Raceway Sunday night. Hamlin has impeccable Darlington stats with five wins and 19 Top-10 finishes in 26-career starts. That works out to a stellar 73-percent Top-10 rate at this unique oval. With over 1,000 laps led in 26-career starts, it's clear that Hamlin knows how to race the Track Too Tough to Tame. He won at the egg-shaped oval earlier this season and that indicates he's far from finished collecting hardware at this track. Hamlin is always a threat to win at Darlington Raceway. 

William Byron – Byron has been a sharp instrument on the intermediate sized ovals this season and that's a stat that's difficult to write off as we're about to head into the playoffs. The Hendrick Motorsports youngster has grabbed Top-5 finishes at tracks like Atlanta, Las Vegas, Charlotte and Nashville. Darlington is a bit different animal compared to the other mid-sized tracks on the circuit. The high-line racing groove is a bit of a wrinkle. However, Byron won here in 2023 and he dominated at the Track Too Tough to Tame in the spring. The driver of the No. 24 Chevrolet led 243 of the 297 laps and finished runner-up to Denny Hamlin in the Goodyear 400. He brings that potential to the Cook Out Southern 500.

Chase Briscoe – Briscoe won this event one year ago and finished Top 5 in the spring 2024 race at Darlington Raceway for his former bosses at Stewart Haas Racing. He brings that skill and knowledge to his much more capable team at Joe Gibbs Racing. Although Briscoe had a tough outing there in April of this year, he did qualify well. The No. 19 Toyota team is in a much better place now than they were in the early Spring. With two pole positions, three runner-up finishes and four Top-5 finishes since mid-July, Briscoe has turned this team into a dangerous group heading into NASCAR's postseason. We expect to see a great qualifying effort and stiff challenge for the win from this driver and team at Darlington Raceway.  

Tyler Reddick – Outside of the road circuits, it's been an inconsistent season for Reddick and the No. 45 Toyota team. However, he still managed to find a way inside the playoffs and will get a good track to kickoff his postseason. The urgency of being a lower seed in the field will be a big motivator as well. A win punches Reddick's ticket into the next round. Darlington Raceway has yielded a pair of runner-up finishes and four Top-5 finishes (33-percent) as well as over 300 laps led to this veteran driver. Reddick qualifies very well here and the high-line groove racing appeals to his abilities. The 23XI Racing star led 42 laps and finished fourth at Darlington in April. He's a driver not to be overlooked in this first race of the playoffs.

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Christopher Bell – The driver of the No. 20 Toyota hasn't enjoyed career-long success at Darlington Raceway. However, recent starts have given us some glimpse of potential for Sunday's Cook Out Southern 500. Bell nabbed the pole position in this event in 2023 and led 40 laps before fading to 23rd-place. His speed and performance here have improved over the last three seasons. In this event one year ago the Joe Gibbs Racing star piloted the Toyota team to a brilliant third-place finish. Bell would return this April and match that effort with another third-place finish. With Top 5's in four of his last seven Darlington starts, Bell is a driver to keep an eye on in the Cook Out Southern 500.   

Kyle Larson – Larson has had some recent tough outings at the Track Too Tough to Tame, but they've also been mixed in with some brilliant performances. There's no mistaking that he loves the high line racing action of this oval as his win in this event two seasons ago attests. It really suits his driving preference. Larson has over 1,000 laps led in just 15 starts at Darlington Raceway and his nine Top-10 finishes check in at a strong 60-percent rate. He ran into quite a bit of trouble here earlier this spring but also led 263 laps and finished third-place in this event one year ago. Larson's career average finish at this track is a very robust 12.5 and more representative of his potential in Sunday night's Cook Out Southern 500.     

Brad Keselowski – The owner/driver of the No. 6 Ford is a top Darlington Performer with two wins and 12 Top-10 finishes which work out to a solid 12.0 average finish at the egg-shaped track. His win in 2024's Goodyear 400 made Keselowski a two-time winner at the Track Too Tough to Tame and boosted his Top-10 rate at the track to 52-percent. Keselowski has been on a roll recently with Top-5 finishes at tracks like Indianapolis and Iowa as well as a Top 10 at Richmond a couple weeks ago. The veteran driver enters the playoff season with a lot of momentum despite not being a part of the playoff field. This is a track that could reward him and get things rolling well heading into next season. Keselowski had a tough time here in April but has Top 10's in four of his last six Darlington starts.    

Ty Gibbs – The young driver will get the benefit of being a Joe Gibbs Racing driver this weekend. Darlington of late has been an up-tick track for this Toyota camp. Gibbs is coming off a strong eighth-place finish at Daytona this past weekend and looking to build on that as the season begins to wind down. The driver of the No. 54 Toyota finished ninth-place here in April and that was his second Top 10 in the last three starts at the Track Too Tough to Tame. The high-banked ovals have been good to this driver and team in 2025 as Gibbs has grabbed Top-5 finishes at both Bristol and Dover. The high-line racing style seems to appeal to this young driver and you should see that on the track Sunday night.

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Darlington & solid upside

Chase Elliott – Elliott has been a steady, but unspectacular performer over the years at Darlington Raceway. The driver of the No. 9 Chevrolet has never won at the Track Too Tough to Tame, but Elliott has Top 10's in three of his last five visits to South Carolina including his strong eighth-place finish there this spring. That has boosted his Top-10 rate at Darlington Raceway to a respectable 47-pecent. It has taken Elliott some time to figure this track out (17 starts) but it's clear he's becoming more comfortable here. He knows a victory here is highly unlikely, but a Top-10 finish would do wonders for the No. 9 team in kicking off their playoff run.    

Chris Buescher – Buescher has had a decent season despite missing the field for the playoffs. The Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing veteran has recent Top 10's at Watkins Glen and Daytona last weekend, so the momentum is good coming to South Carolina. Buescher has just six-career Top-10 finishes at Darlington Raceway, but the good news is that they've all come since the 2021 season. In fact, four of them have come in just the last five starts at the Track Too Tough to Tame. The driver of the No. 17 Ford has a lot of momentum right now and he had a strong car earlier this year at Darlington (sixth-place). Buescher makes a tempting choice in weekly lineup leagues this Sunday evening.

Ryan Blaney – Darlington Raceway has always been a track with issues for Blaney. His career numbers here are less than desirable. However, the driver of the No. 12 Ford has started to improve those trends in his last few starts at the South Carolina raceway. With three Top-10 finishes in his last five starts, Blaney is well ahead of his career averages here in his most recent sampling. In April he collected a Darlington career-best fifth-place in the Goodyear 400. Coming off the big win at Daytona this past week and riding a six-race Top-10 streak into Darlington, we believe Blaney could be one of the sneaky-good drivers this Sunday night and totally buck his historical reputation at the Track Too Tough to Tame.

Ross Chastain – The Trackhouse Racing veteran has overcome a lot of early-career struggles at Darlington Raceway to actually become a strong performer at this egg-shaped oval. Chastain has finishes of fifth-, 11th-, fifth- and seventh-place in his last four starts at Darlington and that has helped boost his Top-10 rate at the track to 33-percent. Chastain's average finish at the Track Too Tough to Tame still needs some work, but it's clear that the veteran driver has finally figured this place out and is now posting great finishes. Despite a poor qualifying effort in April (25th on the starting grid) Chastain had no trouble in racing up to a strong seventh-place finish by the checkered flag.        

Daniel Suarez – One of the hottest, streaking drivers in the series is making a timely visit to Darlington Raceway this weekend. Suarez has reversed his slow season and grabbed three-straight Top 10's coming to South Carolina this week. That includes his brilliant runner-up finish at Daytona this past weekend. The Trackhouse Racing veteran is not a top performer at Darlington Raceway, but he was a Top-15 finisher there in April. That's well ahead of his career average finish at the Track Too Tough to Tame of 22.9. We believe Suarez will challenge, if not crack the Top 10 Sunday night in South Carolina given his current momentum and good outing at the track in the spring.  

Alex Bowman – This isn't one of Bowman's better ovals with just a 27-percent Top-10 rate and 19.8 average finish. There are better intermediate ovals on the circuit for the driver of the No. 48 Chevrolet. However, Bowman has a lot to race for this weekend in South Carolina as he just did make his way into the playoff field and he'd like to get a good start on NASCAR's postseason. He's been a Top-10 finisher in four of his last six races, so Bowman has been performing reasonably well before his bad luck crash at Daytona this past week. This driver and team have a pair of Top 10's at Darlington Raceway since 2022, so good performances at this track are not unheard of for Bowman. We believe he'll be on his game this Sunday night.   

Slow Down - Drivers to avoid this week

Joey Logano – Logano has had some tough luck of late, so we're downgrading him to the slow down list this week. He certainly has potential to do well in Sunday's Cook Out Southern 500. Darlington Raceway has been a mediocre track over the years for the driver of the No. 22 Ford. Despite being a one-time Darlington winner, he's only cracked the Top 10 once here in the last five races. That has pulled his career Top-10 rate at the Track Too Tough to Tame down to 48-percent. Given how Logano performed here in the spring and how he's racing at the moment, we believe he'll be mired back in the middle-to-upper teens of this field when the checkered flag waves. He doesn't bring "A" tier value to the Cook Out Southern 500.   

Kyle Busch – Busch's one Darlington win (2008) is not particularly recent, so he's not a major threat to win this race. His consistency at Darlington over the years has been remarkable. Busch's 59-percent career Top-10 rate and 13.3 average finish are enviable marks. However, this season has been nothing short of a disaster for the driver of the No. 8 Chevrolet. His seven Top-10 finishes to this point are tracking towards a career-low total and his ranking in the standings is the lowest since last season's 20th-place ranking. Busch rides a six-race Top-10 drought into Darlington this Sunday evening. We believe he's a high-risk driver in the first race of the NASCAR playoffs.

Austin Cindric – His struggles this season are well documented, including Cindric's troubles on mid-sized ovals. The Penske Racing driver has just one Top 10 in his last seven starts on tracks this size (14-percent) and an uninspiring 22.6 average finish in that recent sampling. Cindric has seven-career Cup Series starts at Darlington Raceway and no Top-10 finishes to his credit. The average finish is checking in around 18.3 which is not horrible, but it's not that impressive either. The driver of the No. 2 Ford is coming off a crash and DNF at Daytona and Cindric has just one Top-10 finish in his last nine races. There are better fantasy racing options this weekend in the middle tier of the driver pool.               

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. – Among full-time drivers, Stenhouse has some of the worst statistics at Darlington Raceway. The HYAK Motorsports driver has made 19 Cup Series starts at the South Carolina raceway and has just one Top-10 finish to show for (5-percent). The average finish is coming in around 22.7 which mirrors his last start at the egg-shaped oval. Stenhouse struggled to a 25th-place finish in last April's Goodyear 400. Interestingly, that was his worst finish at Darlington Raceway since 2022. He's had some trouble staying on the lead lap at the Track Too Tough to Tame. The driver of the No. 47 Chevrolet has only finished on the lead lap once in his last three starts at Darlington Raceway. There are better fantasy racing options among the field this week.