Hollywood Casino 400
Location: Kansas City, Kan. Course: Kansas Speedway Format: 1.5-mile tri-oval Laps: 267 Race Preview Aric Almirola grabbed his second Monster Energy NASCAR Cup series victory and his spot among the final eight championship contenders last week at Talladega Superspeedway. The race was dominated from the green flag by the Stewart-Haas Racing teammates, and Almirola was the one who came out on top. The race also crystallized the needs of the remaining players in the championship battle as we head to the final race in the round of 12 at Kansas Speedway this weekend. Drivers will feel more in control of their result this weekend versus last, but those at the bottom of the standings will be feeling the pressure of needing a top result to remain in the championship hunt. Alex Bowman, Kyle Larson, Ryan Blaney and Brad Keselowski are in the elimination zone with one race to salvage their championship dreams, while the one dominant Martin Truex Jr. sits just 18 points ahead of the cut line. Truex and the other two consistent title favorites throughout this season should be feeling pretty confident ahead of this week's race, though. The trio split the last five wins at the circuit among themselves. Key Stats at Kansas Speedway• Number of previous races: 25• Winners from pole: 6• Winners from top-5 starters: 12• Winners from top-10 starters: 15• Winners from 21st or lower starters: 2• Fastest race: 144.122 mph Last 10 Kansas Winners 2018 spring - Kevin Harvick 2017 fall - Martin Truex Jr. 2017 spring - Martin Truex Jr. 2016 fall - Kevin Harvick 2016 spring - Kyle Busch 2015 fall - Joey Logano 2015 spring - Jimmie Johnson 2014 fall - Joey Logano 2014 spring - Jeff Gordon 2013 fall - Kevin Harvick
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)
DraftKings Tier 1 Values
Kevin Harvick - $12,300
Kyle Busch - $11,800
Kyle Larson - $11,500
Martin Truex Jr. - $10,800
DraftKings Tier 2 Values
Chase Elliott - $9,900
Clint Bowyer - $9,600
Denny Hamlin - $9,100
Ryan Blaney - $8,700
DraftKings Tier 3 Values
Jimmie Johnson - $8,300
Alex Bowman - $7,600
Ryan Newman - $7,400
William Byron - $7,000
DraftKings Long-Shot Values
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. - $6,700
Regan Smith - $6,300
A.J. Allmedinger - $6,200
Matt DiBenedetto - $5,400
MY PICKS THIS WEEKLower-Risk Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)Kevin Harvick - $12,300
Martin Truex Jr. - $10,800
Jimmie Johnson - $8,300
William Byron - $7,000
David Ragan - $5,700
Michael McDowell - $5,600There are enough bargain-priced drivers deep in the field to structure a lineup for Kansas that contains two of the favorites. Harvick and Truex have been among the very best at this track in the past few seasons, and they are both expected to be fighting for the win again on Sunday. Harvick had a fast car early in practice, which should bode well for Sunday. Johnson has taken steps forward in competitiveness as this season entered its final weeks, and with three top-10 finishes in the last five races he should be poised to run up front again this week despite his 19th-place finish at the track earlier this year. Johnson's teammate Byron has been struggling to score top finishes recently, and crashed out at Kansas already this season. His pace in practice and qualifying that weekend suggest he should be capable of a top-15 finish this weekend if he avoids mistakes, though. Ragan's Talladega visit last week was a big letdown, but he is also surprisingly good at Kansas. Ragan finished 13th there earlier this season and has three consecutive top-20s at the track. Lastly, McDowell could deliver a nice haul of points to fantasy rosters this week if he continues his trend of finishing better than where he starts at Kansas. He started 30th or worse in the last six Kansas starts, but amassed an average finish of 22.8 and starts 24th on Sunday.
Higher-Risk Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)Kyle Busch - $11,800
Clint Bowyer - $9,600
Kurt Busch - $8,900
Alex Bowman - $7,600
A.J. Allmendinger - $6,200
Ty Dillon - $5,900Kyle Busch has mastered Kansas Speedway after starting off his career at the track poorly. He won here in 2016 and is on a run of seven consecutive top-10 Kansas finishes. Kyle Larson would be a good swap for fantasy owners not sold on Busch. Larson will be starting deep in the field in a must-win situation. Clint Bowyer's two top-fives and six top-10s make him a good choice for higher-risk lineups because he tends to qualify poorly and still get those results here. Selecting him should offer plenty of finish differential points. Teammate Kurt Busch has never won at the track, but did score back-to-back top-10s in the last two Kansas races. Next in line is Alex Bowman, who is in a must-win situation to keep his championship hopes alive this season. At this point he has nothing to lose and should be gunning for the win. A.J. Allmendinger continues his audition for future employment this weekend, and his respectable record at the track is a nice confidence booster for fantasy owners. He finished 16th here earlier this season and has four top-10s from 17 starts. Similar to Michael McDowell in the roster option above, Ty Dillon is a driver fantasy owners should look to this weekend to add points for finish differential. Dillon increased his finish position an average of nine places in his first three Kansas starts before crashing out in his fourth try in the spring.
