This article is part of our NASCAR DFS series.
Tennessee Lottery 250
Location: Lebanon, Tenn.
Course: Nashville Superspeedway
Format: 1.33-mile D-shaped oval
Laps: 188
NASCAR Xfinity Series Tennessee Lottery 250 Race Preview
We're coming off of a compelling weekend of racing at Charlotte Motor Speedway, with a three-way battle for first place between Justin Allgaier, William Byron and Connor Zilisch. Despite taking a speeding penalty at the start of Stage 3, Byron managed to make a great comeback to take the lead and win in overtime. We'll now head to Nashville for what should be another great race with last weekend's Cup winner Ross Chastain as well as Aric Almirola in the field.
Key Stats at Nashville Superspeedway
- Number of races: 25
- Winners from pole: 3
- Winners from top-five starters: 13
- Winners from top-10 starters: 19
- Winners from 21st or lower starters: 2
Recent Nashville Winners
2024 – John Hunter Nemechek
2023- AJ Allmendinger
2022- Justin Allgaier
2021 -Kyle Busch
Nashville Superspeedway is an intermediate, D-shaped tri-oval track. Though there's a decent history of both the Trucks and Xfinity Series in Nashville, there was a long hiatus between 2011 and 2021 with no NASCAR affiliated races. Track position appeared to be king, but we've seen winners come from 11th and 15th place in the last two years. We should be careful about takeaways about manufacturer in such a small sample, but we've seen wins from a pair of Toyotas and Chevrolets.
RotoWire NASCAR Xfinity Series DFS Tools
DraftKings Value Picks for the Tennessee Lottery 250
Based on a Standard $50K Salary Cap
DraftKings Tier 1 Values
Ross Chastain - $12,000
Justin Allgaier- $11,700
Aric Almirola- $11,500
DraftKings Tier 2 Values
Jesse Love- $10,500
Sam Mayer - $10,000
Austin Hill - $9,500
Brandon Jones - $9,000
DraftKings Tier 3 Values
Sammy Smith - $8,300
Ryan Sieg - $8,100
Harrison Burton - $7,500
DraftKings Tier 4 Values
Dean Thompson- $6,700
Jeffrey Earnhardt - $6,300
NASCAR Xfinity DFS Picks for the Tennessee Lottery 250
Ross Chastain - $12,000
Brandon Jones- $9,000
Ryan Sieg - $8,100
Harrison Burton- $7,500
Dean Thompson - $6,700
Jeffrey Earnhardt - $6,300
Chastain is the headline guest for this weekend's race, and he has an excellent history at Nashville. In four Cup Series races, he's finished first, second and fifth. He comes at a premium price, but it isn't prohibitive. For those who want an alternative to Chastain, I'd be willing to drop down to Mayer as a top driver to build through. His recent form has been up and down, but he is another driver who has an excellent history at Nashville (10th, fifth and third).
Tier 2 is otherwise jammed full of potential value. Jones is worth highlighting of the group, as he's qualified no worse than 15th. His results haven't been there, but he has speed at the track and has also topped 40 DK points in three of his last six races.
Tier 3 offers some roster glue in the middle of the price range. Sieg pops as the top value option on our optimizer. He's had solid showings on the track but has been a true star for DFS purposes. Among full-time drivers in the Xfinity Series, Sieg ranks fourth with 35.5 DK points per race. He is sixth when taking into account Almirola and Chastain. He appears in Tier 3, but should be locked into lineups without much question.
The story is similar for Harrison Burton. He's finished inside the top 10 in three of his last five races yet hasn't seen a rise in price.
From there, it's time to fill in with value. Thompson is a pretty easy choice based on the form he has shown throughout the season (30 DK points per race)and is another curious case of stagnant pricing.
NASCAR Xfinity Best Bets for the Tennessee Lottery 250
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 11:30 AM ET Saturday
Race Winner- Sam Mayer (+1200)
Head-to-Head Matchup: Brandon Jones (-115) vs. Sheldon Creed
Head-to-Head Matchup: Sam Mayer (-115) vs. Connor Zilisch
Head-to-Head Matchup: Austin Hill (+100) vs. Jesse Love
DraftKings Sportsbook is offering something new for the Xfinity Series this weekend with head-to-head matchups. This is a great avenue to make some higher-probability wagers than a race winner or top-three selection.
Creed has been very quiet in his first season with the Haas Factory Team and has a poor history at Nashville. In three races in the Xfinity Series, he has never qualified better than 14th and never finished better than 17th. As was noted, Jones' results have been mediocre, but his qualifying form has been strong.
We've already covered our reasons for being on Mayer this weekend, and a safer way to bet on his form at Nashville is his head-to-head matchup against Zilisch. Setting aside track history, Mayer's average finish this season is 10.85, while Zilisch's sits at 15.58.
A final matchup to consider is the RCR teammates. Both should be in for good weekends, but Hill has gotten better results across the board as measured by wins and top-five finishes, particularly.
Mapping out your wagers for the Xfinity Series race? Check out the latest Sportsbook Promo Codes to get special offers and make the most of your bets.
