Citizen Soldier 400
Location: Dover, Del.
Course: Dover International Speedway
Format: 1.0-mile oval
Laps: 400
Race Preview
Another 1.0-mile oval greets the NASCAR Sprint Cup teams this week at Dover International Speedway. Kevin Harvick punched his ticket through to the next round of eliminations by overcoming the strength of the Toyota teams and winning in New Hampshire. Matt Kenseth put up a valiant fight in the closing segments, but fresh tires and late restarts made the difference for the Stewart Haas Racing driver to earn his way into the final 12. Kenseth is the defending Dover winner, and the Joe Gibbs Racing program is showing no signs of slowing down anytime soon, having dominated much of the race, practice and qualifying last week. Just one race remains for the rest of the Chasers to earn their spots in the next round of championship eliminations.
Key Stats at Dover International Speedway
• Number of previous races: 93
• Winners from pole: 13
• Winners from top-5 starters: 53
• Winners from top-10 starters: 72
• Winners from 21st or lower starters: 5
• Fastest race: 132.719 mph
Last 10 Dover Winners
2016 spring - Matt Kenseth
2015 fall - Kevin Harvick
2015 spring - Jimmie Johnson
2014 fall - Jeff Gordon
2014 spring - Jimmie Johnson
2013 fall - Jimmie Johnson
2013 spring - Tony Stewart
2012 fall - Brad Keselowski
2012 spring - Jimmie Johnson
2011 fall - Kurt Busch
Dover International Speedway can be a punishing circuit for drivers and teams. The concrete surface and steep banking increases speeds significantly over what we saw last week in New Hampshire. Passing is a bit easier due to the banking, but the drivers' preferred line will be the bottom of the race track. We saw last week that fresh tires, track position and late-race restarts can disrupt the expected flow of the race, which is exactly what fantasy players should expect again. Dover has a habit of causing mechanical failures, which will give teams the opportunity to stop for fresh tires or gamble to gain track position. Those factors should align again on Sunday as they did last week. However, unlike New Hampshire, winning after starting deeper in the field is a more difficult proposition at Dover. No driver has won starting outside of the top 10 since Clint Bowyer accomplished the feat from the 16th starting position in 2009.
RACE DAY SCORE VALUE PICKS (Based on Standard $60K Salary Cap)
Tier 1 Values
Brad Keselowski - $12,000
Kevin Harvick - $11,900
Joey Logano - $11,300
Tier 2 Values
Matt Kenseth - $11,100
Martin Truex Jr. - $11,100
Denny Hamlin - $11,100
Jimmie Johnson - $10,900
Tier 3 Values
Greg Biffle - $9,800
Paul Menard - $9,800
Danica Patrick - $9,200
Ty Dillon - $9,100
Long-Shot Values
Chris Buescher - $8,600
Regan Smith - $8,400
David Ragan - $8,300
MY PICKS THIS WEEK
Lower-Risk Lineup ($60K Salary Cap)
Kevin Harvick - $11,900
Martin Truex Jr. - $11,100
Denny Hamlin - $11,100
Clint Bowyer - $9,200
Regan Smith - $8,400
Landon Cassill - $8,200
After coming to the front to win last week in New Hampshire, Harvick deservedly leads the lower-risk lineup for Dover. He's the defending winner of this week's race and led 355 of 400 laps in that victory. He also led 115 laps at the track earlier this season. Last week, Truex showed that he's going to be a serious title contender, and he hasn't finished lower than 11th at Dover in the last six races. Positive results also have been a trademark of Hamlin recently. The Joe Gibbs Racing driver is currently on a run of 11 consecutive races with finishes inside the top 15. While Bowyer's 2016 season has been one to forget, one of the bright spots was his effort at Dover in the spring. He finished 12th to score one of his best results of the year. Smith and Cassill finish off the lineup with the potential to grab top-20 finishes.
Higher-Risk Lineup ($60K Salary Cap)
Kyle Busch - $11,300
Matt Kenseth - $11,100
Jimmie Johnson - $10,900
Greg Biffle - $9,800
Chris Buescher - $8,600
David Ragan - $8,600
The higher-risk lineup balances itself with top Toyota choices of Busch and Kenseth. Kenseth won at Dover in the spring, and may have won last week had things played out differently last week. Busch is a two-time Dover winner and finished as the runner up in this race last season. Johnson represents the first gamble in this lineup option. The former champion has been one of the strongest Dover racers in history but has been in a slump for much of 2016 as well as the last two Dover races. However, if he turns things around this weekend he may be difficult to defeat. Biffle is another who has had a rough season, but he led six laps at the track before crashing out at the track in the spring. He should be capable of a top-15 performance on Sunday. The Chase may be coming to an end for Buescher this week, but his 18th-place Dover finish in the spring was a much better result than we're used to from the driver. Fantasy players should expect him to punch above his weight again this week as he fights to keep his championship hopes alive. Lastly, Ragan has been capable of grabbing Dover top-20s as well. His last top-20 came in July in Daytona, but he finished 17th at Dover earlier in the year for one of his better finishes of the season.
