Toyota/Save Mart 350 Preview: Returning to Road Circuits

We leave the street circuit of Chicago behind this week and head to more twisting turns as the NASCAR Cup Series will make its third stop of the season on the road course circuit. Sonoma Raceway in California hosts the Toyota/Save Mart 350 this Sunday afternoon. Sonoma Raceway is a 1.99-mile, 10-turn road course with many elevation changes and several different types of corners. The long, relatively straight runs are abruptly ended by many sharp corners, so horsepower and brakes are very important. One lap around Sonoma incurs a total of 160 feet in elevation change, so this course is very hard on the driver and equipment. The 180-degree carrousel turn before the start/finish line provides many passing opportunities to those drivers who can drive in deep and out-brake their opponents. Other than the carousel turn, the drivers have to be on their toes for any opportunity to make a pass. These characteristics make it a tough course for the oval track drivers, because they will struggle to find passing opportunities. 

This will be NASCAR's first visit to the state of California in the 2025 season. This race signals that we're in the middle of the heart of NASCAR's road course schedule. We competed at Mexico City just a few weeks ago and at the Chicago Street Course just this past Sunday. Including Sonoma, we have Watkins Glen on the near horizon in August as well. Those who had successful performances at Mexico City and Chicago will be all tuned up and ready to hit the rolling hills of Sonoma this Sunday. Additionally, the teams that perform well on the Sonoma circuit Sunday are set up to have additional success in the upcoming road course events at Watkins Glen and the Charlotte ROVAL. So, we need to pay careful attention to the results of Sunday's Toyota Save Mart 350 going forward.   

Since this is the third of five road course events in the NASCAR Cup Series schedule in 2025, we'll have some recent data to examine but we'll also need to cast an eye towards historical trends at this particular facility. The current hot streaks entering this race will play a very small part, but really this style of track requires a lot of historical data review for making our driver lists. There are certain drivers, really good ones, who hate road course racing and it will show up on the track this Sunday. The drivers who have performed well at Sonoma in recent years have a definite advantage in the Toyota/Save Mart 350. The loop stats shown below cover the last 19 races at Sonoma Raceway.

The Sonoma road course has always played well to veteran drivers. Jeff Gordon and Tony Stewart used to dominate here for years. With the retirement of those stars, other veteran drivers have been locked in a battle for supremacy of this California road course. More recently, veterans such as Kyle Larson and Martin Truex Jr. have dominated the twisting turns of the California circuit. We're on the cusp of a possible changing of the guard at Sonoma Raceway. A crop of young drivers like Christopher Bell, Tyler Reddick, William Byron and Chase Elliott are the next generation of rising stars in the sport, and it will be their task to unseat these veterans at Sonoma. Of those, Elliott is the most likely candidate to break through and win due to his extensive success in this style of racing. He's also finished Top 5 in the last two Sonoma events. However, this is one Cup Series road circuit where Elliott is yet to win. We'll take a look at the stats, Sonoma's history and the road course experts in order to give you the drivers you need to dominate your fantasy racing league this weekend.

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Kyle Larson – We're accustomed to slotting Larson in the contenders list most weeks, especially on ovals, despite finishing a mediocre 13th-place this past Sunday in Chicago, he's a prime contender when we visit Sonoma. He does bring race-winning capability to the table (six-career road course wins), however, his Top-10 percentages and average finish are much better on ovals than road circuits. Sonoma Raceway is probably his favorite of these circuits. Larson is a two-time winner here and he's won the pole position at the track a stunning five times between 2017 and 2022. He's led over a 100 career laps at the track in the hills of California. In this event one year ago, Larson and the No. 5 Chevrolet team marched to the victory in the Toyota Save Mart 350.

Christopher Bell – Bell has been pretty sharp of late and should carry that into the Toyota/Save Mart 350 this weekend. His last two seasons of road course racing has yielded a win (COTA) and three runner-up finishes for a razor sharp 5.0 average finish on the road tracks since 2024. Most recently he claimed a runner-up finish at Mexico City just a few short weeks ago. Bell has just four-career Cup Series starts at Sonoma Raceway, so he's short on experience here. However, each start has gotten progressively better for the driver of the No. 20 JGR Toyota. Bell has nabbed Top-10 finishes at the challenging track in his last two starts. With Martin Truex Jr. now retired we're ready to see Bell carry the Joe Gibbs Racing banner high at Sonoma.    

Chase Elliott – Elliott will be making his ninth-career Cup Series start at Sonoma Raceway this Sunday. He's never won at the California track, but he's nabbed four Top-5 and six Top-10 finishes in those starts. The 50-percent Top-5 and 75-percent Top-10 rates speak for themselves. Elliott rides a four-race Sonoma Top-10 streak into this Sunday's action, and he's almost always in the running to win these road racing events. Seven of his 20-career victories have come on road courses (35-percent). That stat combined with his strong 8.7 average finish on these style tracks make them easily his best. Elliott has finishes of fifth-, fourth- and third-place in his last three road racing events.  

Shane van Gisbergen – With wins already this season at Mexico City and Chicago just this past week, we need to really start thinking differently about van Gisbergen and his No. 88 Chevrolet team. He's struggled more on the "traditional" NASCAR road course circuits, but that could be coming to an end. He finished runner-up at Watkins Glen last fall and that's a great sign of his progress on these tracks going forward. This weekend will be van Gisbergen's first Cup Series start at Sonoma Raceway, so we have no stats nor background for this event. However, he has made one Xfinity Series start at Sonoma which came last season. The Kiwi marched to a dominant victory that day in the No. 97 Kaulig Racing Chevrolet. Van Gisbergen has tremendous potential in Sunday's Toyota Save Mart 350.        

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

William Byron – Byron has elevated his road racing game over the past few seasons. In just the last two years alone he's grabbed a win and runner-up finish in the last two COTA events and he has four Top-10 finishes in the last six road course events (67-percent). Byron had a tough DNF due to mechanical failure at Chicago this past week, but he should rebound big in the Toyota Save Mart 350. As it relates to Sonoma Raceway, Byron has just one Top 10 and two Top 15's in his six-career starts, so the stats aren't eye popping. However, we believe he and the No. 24 team are prime picks to click this weekend in the foothills of California.

Tyler Reddick – The young 23XI Racing driver is coming off a strong third-place finish at Chicago and looking to ride that momentum into California. Reddick has had his struggles in his four-career starts at Sonoma Raceway, but Reddick has always qualified well here. His 4.8 average start at Sonoma is a set up for success, he just needs the luck side to follow through this weekend. Reddick's road racing ability is undeniable. Over the past two seasons alone he's collected one pole position, three front row starts, two Top-5 and three Top-10 finishes. He's led 51 laps during this span and that's a lot of time racing up front among the leaders. Reddick won the pole and finished third-place earlier this season at COTA, he has that potential at Sonoma Raceway.  

Kyle Busch – The Richard Childress Racing star is a two-time winner at Sonoma Raceway. Aside from Watkins Glen, the Sonoma circuit is Busch's most successful road course. He has six Top-5 finishes in his last nine starts at the California road course and he's led 133 laps for his career at this hilly, rolling facility. He finished a dazzling fifth-place at COTA earlier this season and was fifth-place this past Sunday on the Chicago Street Course. That's a very high level of performance for the driver of the No. 8 Chevrolet. Busch has tons of upside and potential on these style tracks, and it's elevated when we visit the very familiar Sonoma Raceway.  

Chris Buescher – Buescher has been a super consistent performer on the winding circuits the past year. Over the last six road racing events, the veteran driver has nabbed a victory and five Top-10 finishes and a dazzling 7.7 average finish. The driver of the No. 17 Ford isn't going to lead a lot of laps nor really challenge for the win, but Buescher will keep close contact with the leaders the full race as his recent production indicates. The Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing driver has second-, fourth- and third-place finishes in his last three Sonoma Raceway starts. He qualifies well on these style tracks and he has little trouble bringing home good finishes. Buescher is a driver to watch closely in the Toyota/Save Mart 350.  

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Sonoma & solid upside

Ross Chastain – Melon Man has been pretty consistent on the road tracks over the past year. Chastain has gathered three Top-10 finishes (50-percent) and a very sound 12.0 average finish. In this event one year ago, he pedaled the No. 1 Chevrolet to a good fifth-place finish in the Toyota/Save Mart 350. That was one of four Top 10's that he's collected at Sonoma Raceway and in just five-career starts. The 80-percent Top-10 rate at Sonoma, albeit a small sample size, is impressive and his 12.4 average finish is sound. Chastain's last road racing effort was a 10th-place finish at the Chicago Street Course this past weekend. That's a good last look at this style of racing for this driver and team.

Michael McDowell – The veteran Spire Motorsports driver showed his muscle this past week in Chicago. McDowell would lead a race-high 31 laps and have a dominant presence at the front before bad luck would befall him and force him several laps down. He'll look to rebound at Sonoma Raceway this Sunday. McDowell rides a three-race Sonoma Top-10 streak into this weekend's action. He finished a brilliant runner-up in this event one year ago. The same excellence can be stated of his recent road racing performance. McDowell has nabbed two Top-5 and three Top-10 finishes dating back to last season on these style circuits for a solid 13.0 average finish. He'll be a face inside the Top 10 in the Toyota Save Mart 350.  

AJ Allmendinger – Allmendinger is a bit of a dice roll when it comes to Sonoma Raceway. He has a bit of a love-hate affair going on with this track. However, the Kaulig Racing veteran's skills at road racing are unquestionable. Over the past year he's nabbed three Top-10 finishes on these style tracks and accrued a reasonable 16.2 average finish across those six events. Allmendinger is a very aggressive driver in these style races, and he always goes for the win, which can sometimes result in disaster. Still, the driver of the No. 16 Chevrolet carries a lot of upside (Top-5 and laps led upside) in every road course event that he enters. This past weekend he was a sixth-place finisher on the streets of Chicago.   

Alex Bowman – Bowman grabbed his third Top 10 in the last four races with his eighth-place finish at Chicago this past week. The veteran driver was also a strong fourth at Mexico City just a few weeks ago. Bowman has been productive over the last year on the winding tracks with three Top-10 finishes for a sound 50-percent Top-10 rate. The Hendrick Motorsports veteran has just two Top-10 finishes in eight starts at Sonoma, but his last four attempts have netted one Top-10 and three Top-15 finishes. We believe Bowman and the No. 48 Chevrolet team could nab a career-best Sonoma finish this Sunday in the Toyota/Save Mart 350.

Ryan Blaney – The Penske Racing star has always liked Sonoma Raceway, probably more so than most of the road courses of NASCAR's top division. Blaney has five Top-10 finishes in eight starts at Sonoma for a strong 63-percent Top-10 rate. four of those five Top 10's has come in just his last five starts alone. The last two seasons have been a mixed bag for the No. 12 Ford team on the winding tracks. Blaney has two Top-10 and four Top-15 finishes on road circuits. Qualifying well has still been the major issue, but he's shown an ability to move through the field to good finishes. Blaney was a reasonable 12th-place finisher on the streets of Chicago this past Sunday.

Joey Logano – Coming off a decent 11th-place finish in the Grant Park 165 in Chicago last weekend, it could be that the No. 22 Ford team is finally turning the corner on a slow start to the 2025 season. The Penske Racing star will get the "equalizer" of a road circuit thrown his way this weekend, so it becomes less about the car and more about the driver at Sonoma. Logano has been a steady performer over the years at Sonoma Raceway with a respectable 40-percent Top-10 rate and Top 10's in two of his last four starts there. He's been a bit inconsistent over the past year on these winding circuits and has just one Top-10 and three Top-15 finishes on these style tracks, so we've placed this driver and team in the sleepers list this week for their Sonoma upside.

Slow Down - Drivers to avoid this week

Denny Hamlin – Hamlin's road course performance over the past year has been a bit more miss than hit. He brings fast cars to these tracks, but getting the finishes has been tough. For example, Hamlin has grabbed just two Top-15 finishes in the last year on these style tracks and led just 3 combined laps. The average finish comes in at a disappointing 22.0. Hamlin has 18-career starts at Sonoma Raceway, but just seven Top-10 finishes (39-percent).  This is lower than we like to see in a solid fantasy play. Also, he's ran into trouble in his last three starts and Sonoma and finished outside the Top 30 in each. This driver and team carry far too great a risk.

Bubba Wallace – The 23XI Racing driver has six-career starts at Sonoma. So, experience is there, but the results are thin. With just one Top-15 vs. three finishes outside the Top 25, the results are subpar at best. The average finish checks in around 23.7. Recent road course outings the last the last year have yielded a similar but marginally better 15.5 average finish, but the veteran driver still often finishes well back of the Top 10. Wallace was raised racing on short track ovals, and the road courses are still something outside his comfort zone to this point in his Cup Series career. Despite his recent steady performance, we have to recommend benching Wallace this week.    

Josh Berry – Despite Berry's success on mid-sized ovals this season, he's still a driver to avoid on the winding circuits of NASCAR. The Wood Brothers Racing driver struggled to a disappointing 34th-place finish at Chicago this past week and he's grabbed no Top-20 finishes the past year on the road circuits. That average finish is working out to a whopping 27.7. As for Sonoma Raceway, Berry has very little experience racing here. His only Cup Series start at the track came in this event one year ago. Berry would qualify poorly and experience trouble during the race, retiring early with a suspension issue and 32nd-place finish. The No. 21 Ford team and Berry have no fantasy upside at all in the Toyota Save Mart 350.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. – The JTG Daugherty Racing veteran has been reasonably good in recent intermediate oval and superspeedway races, but there's reason for caution this weekend at the California road circuit. Stenhouse is less than exceptional on these winding circuits. In his last six road course starts he has no Top-10 finishes vs. four finishes outside the Top-25. His average finish during that span is at 25.0. His 11-career starts at Sonoma have yet to yield a Top-10 finish and register an unsavory 25.4 average finish. Given all the evidence we have to be very reserved about Stenhouse's chances in California this weekend.