YellaWood 500 Preview: The Wild Card of the Playoffs

This weekend the luck factor comes into play like no other race in the 10 events that makeup the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs. NASCAR's top division comes to Talladega Superspeedway for the YellaWood 500 and for the wild pack racing action that Talladega provides. This is the perfect event to throw in with the short tracks, flat tracks, and intermediate ovals that make up the final 10 races in the playoff schedule. Considering that we've spent the last few weeks racing on intermediate and smaller ovals with few cautions and few crashes, we're in for some major changes as the "big one" comes back into play. The multi-car, multi-line drafts and side-by-side racing at near 200 mph is nothing short of chaotic. Five hundred miles of racing in these tight conditions almost always leads to disaster, and that's where the luck factor comes into play this weekend. Considering that this weekend's race is the second in the Round of 8 of the playoffs, the stakes will be even higher than usual. 

A surprise driver, even a non-playoff driver, could likely be in the spotlight this Sunday at Talladega Superspeedway. Thanks mostly to the wild action and outcomes that superspeedway racing generates. William Byron took the checkers in the Daytona 500 and Austin Cindric took the win in the spring Talladega event. Ryan Blaney was the victor just a few weeks ago in the late summer installment at Daytona. These huge oval races seem more a wild card than ever this season. We could see another surprise or first-time superspeedway winner again this weekend. The two biggest threats to the mystery, underdog driver's hopes for a Talladega victory this weekend would be Blaney and Joey Logano. Both are three-time winners at this 2.66-mile oval and both have demonstrated a lot of speed on the superspeedway tracks this season, but with some bad luck finishing these races. The stakes will be high and so will the nerves, as the consequences of this playoff format is more pressure than ever at this point in the season. When the green flag drops the mayhem will ensue and championship hopes will be made or dashed after 500 miles of racing at 'Dega.

Talladega Superspeedway is unlike any of the other tracks in the playoff schedule, but history still plays a big part. The drivers that tend to run up front and win at this large oval are usually the same drivers each and every time we visit Talladega. As you'll see in the table below, some of the drivers who are vying for the championship are also very proficient at Talladega Superspeedway. Here are the loop stats for the last 41 races at the famous Alabama oval.

The loop stats from Talladega look a bit odd when compared to other tracks in the series.  Right away we notice a lack of drivers like Christopher Bell, Kyle Larson and Chase Briscoe in the Top 10 of this list. Luck plays a large part in winning Talladega. Sometimes it's all in the timing and when to make your move at this oval. The second thing we notice is the lower overall driver ratings. Wrecks play a big part in Talladega racing, and everyone eventually gets caught up in a big one, putting a dent in their average statistical performance. In this season's earlier race at Talladega in April we saw Austin Cindric surge late to get into the lead and grab the impressive victory thanks to some wild action in the closing laps that saw the lead change five times in the final 7 laps. His shootout with multiple drivers was an epic ending to a race that largely ran without many cautions, which made the Jack Links 500 a bit of an outlier. We got a dramatic finish without the multiple late cautions and overtime, and it underscores the unpredictability of Talladega races. Ty Gibbs had dominated much of that event, yet he was shuffled out of the leaders and wound up a distant 17th-place. Yes, indeed, anything can happen at Talladega. The 67 lead changes were on par with the 66 lead changes we saw in this event one year ago and showed the parity we now have in these superspeedway races. Hopefully, we'll see even more passing among the front this weekend, and the ability for cars to work together to run down a faster leader. 

Like most Talladega races, we should see some big multi-car crashes and some late cautions as the urgency gets the best of the drivers in the closing laps. With the big wrecks and caution flags as a result of the pack racing, we should see some of the familiar "sand-bagging" drivers who hang out in the back of the field. Although stage racing has gone a long way towards tempering this possibility, the driver who keeps a low profile most of the race may ultimately be the one to push to the front in the closing laps and make for a thrilling victory. One thing is for certain, a spot in the next round of the playoffs is up for grabs and this race helps to equalize the odds for some of the smaller teams. Some drivers will move on to Martinsville Speedway with their championship hopes intact, while others will load the wrecked remains of their race cars onto the hauler and start to think about next season. Here are the drivers who you need to focus on for fantasy racing glory at Talladega Superspeedway.  

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Ryan Blaney – The 2025 season has had its ups-and-downs for the No. 12 Ford team, but Blaney has been doing all he can to advance deep into the playoffs. He reminded everyone with his big victory at Daytona back in the summer that he's still very capable on the big ovals and quite a threat to win. The superspeedway ovals have been a real niche of this driver and team the last few seasons. Blaney is a three-time Talladega winner and also a two-time runner-up finisher at the Alabama track. The Penske Racing star has had some mixed luck at Talladega recently, but his series-leading 116 laps led in the last seven superspeedway races dictate Blaney is the driver everyone will be watching this weekend. He'll be in the mix for the win and automatic berth to the next round of the playoffs on Sunday afternoon at Talladega.

William Byron – Byron has definitely flipped the switch "on" in regard to superspeedway racing the last two seasons. He's won the last two Daytona 500's and finished third-place in his last two Talladega starts. Byron is in great position for a deep drive into the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs, assuming he doesn't find trouble Sunday at Talladega. The driver of the No. 24 Chevrolet had been a bit of a tough-luck performer earlier in his career at the Alabama oval, but's he rallied to post a five-race Talladega Top-10 streak entering this weekend. That has boosted Byron's Top-10 rate here to a strong 47-percent and good 13.7 average finish. While he's never won a Talladega race, Byron is inching closer with each start. He has a pretty high ceiling for Sunday's YellaWood 500.   

Austin Cindric – The 2021 Daytona 500 winner and this spring's Jack Links 500 at Talladega winner has started to come into his own in this style of racing. He now has two victories and four Top-5 finishes between Daytona and Talladega. Earlier this season at Daytona the driver of the No. 2 Ford qualified on the outside pole and led 59 laps in the Daytona 500 before eventually finishing eighth in the Great American Race. Cindric has qualified on the outside pole in two of his last three Talladega starts and garnered 52-combined laps led in those three events. This driver and team bring homerun speed into this superspeedway races and have a slugger's chance to bring home the trophy in them as well. Despite his playoff elimination, Cindric is a driver who could upset the playoff participants at Talladega Superspeedway.     

Kyle Larson – While Larson has never really been a big superspeedway performer, and especially at Talladega, that has begun to reverse in recent outings. His last two trips to Alabama have netted fourth- and second-place finishes. While he's still not a big lap leader in these events, it seems the Hendrick Motorsports star has learned the craft of patience and knowing when to make his move at Talladega Superspeedway. Larson was also very impressive in our most recent superspeedway race. He qualified a strong third-place and finished sixth at Daytona during the summer. These recently acquired skills will serve Larson and the No. 5 team well this weekend. With the playoffs, the championship and everything on the line, don't overlook Larson in this race.  

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Chase Elliott – This season's three superspeedway races has yielded one Top-5, two Top-10 and three Top-15 finishes for the driver of the No. 9 Chevrolet. That works out to a strong 10.0 average finish and a real mark of Elliott's consistency in this style of racing. He is a two-time Talladega winner and he's led over 200 laps in 19 starts at the huge oval. The Hendrick Motorsports star grabbed a fifth-place finish in the race earlier this season at Talladega and that has boosted his Top-5 rate here to a strong 32-percent. Elliott was a 10th-place finisher in our last superspeedway race at Daytona a few weeks ago. He is often racing among the lead pack in the closing laps in these high-risk superspeedway races. 

Brad Keselowski – The six-time Talladega winner has been pretty sharp at this track the past few seasons. Keselowski has led 11 combined laps and grabbed two runner-up and three Top-5 finishes in the last five Talladega Superspeedway events. The last of his six Talladega wins came in 2021 and he also finished runner-up in this event one year ago. With a career 49-percent Top-10 rate at the Alabama speedway, that's a strong statistic of consistency over a lot of years of racing. His career 15.6 average finish at this oval is a real testament to his consistency at Talladega despite the many hazards. Talladega Superspeedway was not only the sight of Keselowski's first Cup Series win, but it's been a track of tremendous success over the years.

Erik Jones – The Legacy Motor Club driver has been a surprising performer on the big ovals over the past two seasons. Jones has racked up two Top-5, three Top-10 and four Top-15 finishes in his last seven starts between Daytona and Talladega. He cracked the Top 5 in this event one year ago and was a fifth-place finisher at Daytona most recently. Jones led 10 laps in that Coke Zero Sugar 400 back in August. With a career 47-percent Top-10 rate for his career (17 starts) at the Alabama oval, this level of performance is no mistake nor uptick. It shows a real understanding of how to race in multi-line, pack drafting. Jones was a 12th-place finisher in the season-opening Daytona 500 and we really feel like that's the floor for him this Sunday in the YellaWood 500.   

Chase Briscoe – Briscoe has really been more consistent on short tracks and intermediate ovals this season, but we can't overlook his performance and potential on superspeedways this season. The Joe Gibbs Racing driver won the pole for the Daytona 500 and finished a brilliant fourth-place in the Great American Race. Briscoe also led a whopping 20 laps earlier this season at Talladega before being shuffled out of the leaders late and finishing 15th-place. The No. 19 Toyota has demonstrated good speed in all three superspeedway starts this year so the potential for great results are there. Briscoe comes into the YellaWood 500 still in the championship fight to advance and that motivation will be huge.  

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Talladega & solid upside

Joey Logano – The Penske Racing star is a three-time Talladega winner, and he's led 533 career laps at Talladega Superspeedway. While his luck at this track has been shaky the last three seasons, you cannot deny the 11 Top-10 finishes he's collected here and all the racing up front that led to those three victories. The No. 22 Ford team's speed on the superspeedway ovals this season has been unquestionably good. Logano has an average start of 5.7 and he has started on the second row of the last two superspeedway events of this year. He has led a combined 94 laps between Daytona and Talladega just this season. His luck finishing these races has been poor so we've slotted him in the sleepers accordingly. Make no mistake, Logano has thrown his hat in the ring to win all season on the superspeedway tracks.

Alex Bowman – The Hendrick Motorsports veteran has been razor sharp the last two seasons on the big ovals. Bowman has two Top-5 and four Top-10 finishes in the last seven races between Daytona and Talladega. The average finish is coming in at a strong 12.6 across the span. The driver of the No. 48 Chevrolet doesn't have great career numbers at Talladega Superspeedway with just a 32-percent Top-10 rate. However, his recent power surge the past two years on the superspeedway ovals is what we feel warrants fantasy consideration this weekend. Bowman's Daytona 500 outing netted an impressive sixth-place finish, and his spring Talladega performance was an equally strong seventh-place finish in the Jack Links 500.

Daniel Suarez – Suarez has reversed some struggles he had on the big ovals in 2024 with a much better campaign this season. The Trackhouse Racing veteran has nabbed 13th-, ninth- and second-place finishes in the three superspeedway events of this season. That's a strong 8.0 average finish across the span and with 8 laps led as well. Suarez is just a 29-percent Top-10 finisher for his career at Talladega Superspeedway, but he's been well above that mark in his time at Trackhouse Racing. Four of his last six Talladega starts have netted Top 10's for a robust 67-percent rate. The driver of the No. 99 Chevrolet stayed out of the accidents earlier this season at Talladega and drove from 24th on the starting grid to a strong ninth-place finish in the Jack Links 500.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. – The two-time Talladega victor is always a threat when we visit central Alabama to race. Stenhouse won this event one year ago and his last three Talladega efforts have been fourth-, first- and 12th-place finishes. Those efforts have increased his Top-10 rate at Talladega to a strong 46-percent and lowered his career average finish across 24 starts to 14.4. It's been a season of mixed results on these big ovals for the HYAK Motorsports driver, however, Stenhouse has always seemed to like Talladega better than Daytona and his results bear this fact out. He brings homerun potential to every superspeedway start that he makes because he understands this racing style.

Bubba Wallace – Wallace was the winner of this event in 2021 and while his consistency has been better at Daytona, the 23XI Racing driver has proven capable and dangerous at the sister oval in Alabama. He has ninth- and eighth-place finishes in his last two Talladega attempts and that is greatly improved over his previous three efforts at the track. Wallace qualified third on the grid and led 18 laps in the season-opening Daytona 500 so the speed in the No. 23 Toyota has been good this season. With four Top 10's in his last seven starts between Daytona and Talladega, we can't sleep on Wallace and his 23XI Racing team. They'll be Top-10 threats this Sunday in the YellaWood 500.

Austin Dillon – He's always had more success at the Daytona oval than the Talladega oval, but trends over the past couple seasons have begun to tilt more in Talladega's favor for the driver of the No. 3 Chevrolet. Dillon has qualified fifth-, seventh- and fifth- in his last three Talladega starts and he's fetched finishes of eighth- and 10th-place in the last two alone. That has helped boost the veteran driver's Top-10 rate at this track to 29-precent. Dillon is a two-time Daytona victor and that shows his understanding and skill at this style of racing. He's never won at the Talladega oval and that's not likely to change this Sunday. However, we expect he'll battle among the leaders and potentially grab another Top 10.

Slow Down – Drivers to avoid this week 

Kyle Busch – Despite having won as recently as 2023 at Talladega Superspeedway, we have to slot Busch in the slow down list this week. The general drop off in performance over the past two seasons for this driver has also affected his superspeedway racing. Busch has just one Top 10 in his last eight combined starts between Daytona and Talladega. This season alone the driver of the No. 8 Chevrolet has finishes of 34th-, 27th- and 33rd-place on the two tracks. Busch's recent four-race Top-10 skid at Talladega has dropped his career Top-10 rate here to just 25-percent and bumped his average finish up to 20.4. Despite good qualifying efforts in his last three Talladega starts, he's just simply not been able to close on good finishes.

Denny Hamlin – Hamlin is still in the thick of the championship battle, and that will be a big motivator this weekend. The Joe Gibbs Racing star is a two-time winner at the Alabama oval and has led well over 400 laps here. Hamlin cracks the Top 10 at Talladega at a decent 44-percent rate which is pretty good for this high-stakes form of racing. However, the driver of the No. 11 Toyota hasn't been one of the better performers on the superspeedways the past couple seasons, so that's why we've bumped Hamlin down to the slow down list this weekend. He has just one Top-10 finish in his last seven superspeedway starts (14-percent) and his finishes just this season on the big Daytona and Talladega ovals is 24th-, 21st- and 25th-place with a noticeable lack of laps led. 

Christopher Bell – Bell has had past superspeedway success but this season has been another story altogether for the driver of the No. 20 Toyota. He has only led 4 laps on these ovals in 2025 and has no Top-10 finishes. Bell has actually crashed out of two these Daytona/Talladega events including the Jack Links 500. The Joe Gibbs Racing star has had more career success at the Daytona oval rather than the one in Alabama. Bell has just three Top 10's in 11 starts for a 27-percent Top-10 rate and 20.9 average finish. Of late he has been below those marks with just one Top 10 in his last four starts at Talladega Superspeedway. Bell has a lot on the line in terms of the championship, but we still believe this is not a good weekend for fantasy deployment.  

Tyler Reddick – Despite his one Talladega victory, we consider that an outlier when you examine Reddick's body of work on the superspeedway ovals. The 23XI Racing star has just three Top-10 finishes in 11-career starts at the Alabama speedway (27-percent) and his 18.8 average finish there is above the desired level. Reddick has just 17 laps led in his last 10 superspeedway starts. He doesn't typically qualify well on these tracks either with a 17.0 average finish. That shows a bit of a lack of speed necessary to push up and challenge the leaders. With just two Top 10's in those last 10 combined Daytona/Talladega starts he's registering a 20-percent Top-10 rate. Reddick was a 21st-place finisher at Daytona a few weeks ago and that's probably a reasonable mark to expect for the YellaWood 500.