Regan's Rumblings: 10 Slow Starters – Patience or Panic?

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Updated on April 10, 2019 2:26PM EST

I'll do one of these on 10 pitchers at some point, but with most struggling starters having made just two starts, I need to see a bit more data before being overly concerned. Yes, Chris Sale's velocity decline scares me a little, but the Red Sox don't seem to think he's hurt, so I expect him to work out of his early mini-slump. Zack Wheeler was a darkhorse Cy Young pick by many, so I'm not completely bailing on him two starts in. We do have a bit more data on hitters (usually 30-plus plate appearances by now), though similar sample size caveats apply. Let's look into the performance of 10 hitters off to slow starts and see if there are any conclusions to be drawn.

Brandon Nimmo, OF, NYM

Injuries to the likes of Yoenis Cespedes got Nimmo the opportunity last year, and he took advantage, batting .263/.404/.483 with 17 home runs and nine steals in 535 PA. This year, however, Nimmo has started off hitting just .103/.257/.138 with a 47.2 k percentage in 36 PA. Sunday, Nimmo sat on the bench while Juan Lagares played CF and Jeff McNeil LF. McNeil is hitting .409 and J.D. Davis has a .957 OPS, and this isn't even considering the likely April returns of Jed Lowrie (knee) and Todd Frazier (oblique). Bottom line: Nimmo needs to start hitting to avoid the bench/Triple-A. Will he? Probably. Nimmo did have a solid spring (.291/.344/.527), and he had a .917 OPS over

Brandon Nimmo, OF, NYM

Jurickson Profar, UT, OAK

It wasn't the type of superstar season that seemed possible when Profar was topping prospect charts as a teenager several years ago, but 20 homers, 10 steals and a respectable .254/.335/.458 season last year had him on several "breakout" type lists. This year though it's been ugly – 5-for-47 with no home runs and an 8:1 K:BB. We can point toward the 16.3 K percentage as encouraging, and he certainly isn't posting a .128 BABIP all year, so this is probably just some combination of a slow start and some bad luck on balls in play. The A's may possibly have better baseball minds on staff than me (okay, take out "may possibly"), but while Profar is still just 26, I don't own him in any leagues and was just not buying in this spring. He's a career .235/.315/.379 hitter in more than 1,300 PA, so unless there's some sort of swing path change or new approach that we're not aware of, he probably is what he is, a .250 hitter with 15 to jur20 home runs and a handful of steals.

Brian Dozier, 2B, WAS

Dozier is fortunate that Carter Kieboom and Luis Garcia are off to slow starts in the minors, though he may have to worry about losing time to Howie Kendrick if he keeps this up. Dozier is just 2-for-25 (singles) with a 9;1 K:BB to start this season. This after batting .215/.305/.391 last year, including 4-for-46 in September and .187 in 187 second-half at-bats. Dozer also hit .182 this spring, so, to me at least, he's clearly in a prolonged funk/slump. Last year's 20.4 K percentage and 11.1 BB percentage were in line with expectations, but where before Dozier used to murder fastballs, in 2018, he was below average against them (-1.9 wFA), and this year has been no different. Perhaps there's a simple mechanical adjustment needed or maybe moving him back in the box slightly will help, but I wouldn't touch Dozier right now outside of the deepest leagues. Even then, he's riding the bench.

Lewis Brinson, OF, MIA

I really feel for Marlins fans, as it's become readily apparent that the best thing they got out of dealing their All-Star outfield was maybe a back-end starter (Sandy Alcantara) who will probably wind up in the bullpen. Brinson was the key piece in the Christian Yelich deal, but he's now batting .243/.263/.297 with an 8:0 K:BB and two XBH in 38 PA. Best thing you can say here is that at least he's not hitting .199 as he did in 405 PA last year, but even this season's OPS (.560) is lower than the .578 mark he managed in 2018. Marlins and Dodgers fans may remember the name Reggie Abercrombie, an athletic outfielder in the early-2000s who had speed and power (as does Brinson), but who also put up these K:BBs in the minors: 154:19, 123:12, 164:16…you get the point. The power and athleticism is there, and the Marlins will probably exercise patience, but I'm not seeing anything that would give me a semblance of hope.

Jose Peraza, 2B/SS, CIN

Peraza singled and homered on Opening Day, but then proceeded to go 4-for-26 in his next six games before sitting out Sunday's contest. Pereza had a mini-breakout last year, hitting .288/.326/.416 with 14 home runs and 23 steals. Headed into his age-25 season, I was hopeful for a repeat (or more), but it's just not happening (yet). Peraza's exit velocity has never ranked high, and it's dropped even more this year, from 83.9 mph to 80.8 mph. his 17.4 percent hard hit rate is also near the bottom – contrast that with Dan Vogelbach's 72.7 percent and Bryce Harper's 62.5 percent mark. Not being on the ball has also led to a .227 BABIP, which eventually should trend back up to his .307 career mark, but to have more success on balls in play, he needs to start seeing the ball better and hitting it harder. Simple right? Peraza is a career .280 hitter in more than 1,500 PA, so it's hard to see him not hitting at least .270. I'm not sure he's going to build on the 14 home runs, but I'm confident he can hit .270 with 10 homers and 20-plus steals the rest of the way. Even once Nick Senzel (ankle) is ready and Scooter Gennett (Groin – June ETA) is healthy, Pereza should have plenty of time to work things out.

Yasiel Puig, OF, CIN

This was supposed to be Puig's breakout season. A pending free agent, a fresh start, reunited with his favorite hitting coach (Turner Ward) and playing in a hitter's park. Instead, Puig is off to a 4-for-30 start that includes a 9:2 K:BB, and no homers or steals through 32 PA. Puig though has been a slow starter in recent years as well:

2016-2018

March – 0-for-9

April - .234/.305/.375

May - .238/.288/.410

Puig's start this year is right in line with what we've seen before, and we can also surmise that he's still getting used to his new teammates, park and general surroundings. Puig hit just .195/.290/.317 versus southpaws the last two years, eventually finding himself in a platoon situation. This year he should play just about every day, so one key will be how Puig performs against LHP. I'm less than optimistic that Puig is going to break out and be a .300/.380/.510 guy with 30-plus homers and 15 steals, but maybe .280/.350/.500 is possible if things break right.

Jesus Aguilar, 1B, MIL

I'm actually a little worried here. Aguilar broke out last year in his age-28 season, hitting .274/.352/.539 with 35 homers and 108 RBI. That's great, but Aguilar also had a .760 OPS in the second half, and his 25.3 K percentage is a bit elevated. This year, Aguilar is off to a 4-for-33 start that includes no XBH. His 5:6 K:BB does give us some optimism, but Aguilar's track record is rather short. Aguilar's soft hit rate has jumped from 15.3 to 27.3 percent and his GB percentage from 35.4 to 45.5. Like all 2019 numbers in this piece, your normal small sample size caveats apply, but with his mediocre 2018 second-half, slow start this year and lack of a substantial body of work, RotoWire's No. 7 first baseman could be more of a guy who finishes at the back-end of the top-15 at his position. What Aguilar does have going for him is an excellent lineup around him. That said, Eric Thames lurks as a Plan B. Thames has a pair of three-run homers already this year, though he's also struck out in an alarming 10 of his 15 PA. In addition, top prospect Keston Hiura lurks as a threat. He's a second baseman of course, but the Brewers could move Mike Moustakas back to third and Travis Shaw to first to make room for Hiura. Aguilar should heat up eventually, but 2018 likely goes down as his career year.

Jose Ramirez, 3B, CLE

Don't get me wrong. I do think Ramirez is still a very good player, but an ADP of five was far too high for me to end up owning any shares. Ramirez hit an elite .270/.387/.552 with 39 home runs and 34 stolen bases last year, so those are certainly top-five worthy. However, in his last 52 games of 2018, Ramirez hit just .210/.343/.387 with seven homers and nine steals. This year he's hitting .194 with no home runs through 34 PA. He does have three steals and has fanned in just 11.8 percent of his PAs, so that's a positive. Ramirez did foul a ball off his knee late in spring training, so perhaps that's a factor in his slow start, but it's still tough to discount that second half last year. Ramirez saw a sharp drop in his batting average last year after batting .312 and .318 the previous two seasons, even though his walk rate more than doubled from 2016 to 2018. After leading the league in wFB (weighted fastball runs – i.e., success against fastballs) from 2017 to 2018, Ramirez is below average so far against them this year, and his 32.1 soft-hit percentage is well over his 17.6 percent career mark. Ramirez is just 26 and was too good from 2016 to 2018 to completely fall apart, but, to me, he's more of a late first-round pick in 12-team mixed leagues than a top-five guy.

Ronald Acuna Jr., OF, ATL

I've already had guys trying to buy low from me on Acuna in keeper leagues, and I find that pretty ridiculous. The 21-year-old is off to a .129/.289/.323 start after the reigning rookie of the year hit .293/.366/.552 a year ago. After posting a 123:45 K:BB (0.37 BB/K) last season, Acuna is off to a solid 6:7 K:BB this year (1.17 K/BB), so that's quite encouraging. I'll also go out on a limb and say that his .087 BABIP will trend up. Acuna has homered twice and stolen a base, so reaching 30/20 this year is very much still in play. The batting average will start shooting up at any moment, so keep him in your lineup. Don't be that guy who trades Acuna for anything less than you would have required at the beginning of the season.

Teoscar Hernandez, OF, TOR

Hernandez showed some promise last year in hitting 22 home runs in 523 PA, but his overall .239/.302/.468 highlights the negative aspect of his game. Hernandez was a hot waiver wire addition early last year after hitting .306/.377/.677 in April, but it was all downhill from there and he hit just .209/.292/.395 in the second half. It sure seemed that pitchers figured him out, and Hernandez finished with a bloated 31.2 K percentage. This year, it's more of the same, as he's hitting just .194/.310/.278. Hopefully, if he's been in your lineup at all, it's been in OBP formats. His current 9:6 K:BB isn't likely sustainable, but even if it's partially so, it would be a massive improvement over last year's ratios, including a 7.8 BB percentage. Hernandez has just five career stolen bases in his 212 games, so it appears that after posting back-to-back 30-plus steals seasons in 2015-2016, that's unfortunately no longer part of his game. That means that to increase his fantasy appeal, his batting average is going to have to come up, and the power will have to be real. I'm skeptical, though newly acquired Socrates Brito isn't exactly an elite prospect waiting to steal Hernandez's job.