The Z Files: Focusing On the Big Picture

The Z Files: Focusing On the Big Picture

This article is part of our The Z Files series.

The topic on the table is how much 2020 should factor into 2021 player expectations. It's a subject I discussed in this space earlier this month in So Much to Think About and Adjusting 2021 Projections for the Regional Schedule, and which came up again over the weekend:

Every offseason, I spend a few weeks in early October fine-tuning my algorithms, based on any newly available data and research studies. This year was no different. However, in addition, I needed to decide how to deal with all the nuances specific to 2020 such as geographical schedules, too few games to compute reliable park factors, an imbalance in divisional quality, no minor leagues in which to rehab, etc.

The result was a lot more work than normal, and it's not over yet. Even though I've generated the foundation of my 2021 player projections and have preliminary rankings, they need a substantial amount of massaging, more so than usual.

Here's my concern. My assumption is regardless of how one derives player expectations, more effort will be put forth than normal. As such, it will be human nature to have more faith in the

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Todd Zola
Todd has been writing about fantasy baseball since 1997. He won NL Tout Wars and Mixed LABR in 2016 as well as a multi-time league winner in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship. Todd is now setting his sights even higher: The Rotowire Staff League. Lord Zola, as he's known in the industry, won the 2013 FSWA Fantasy Baseball Article of the Year award and was named the 2017 FSWA Fantasy Baseball Writer of the Year. Todd is a five-time FSWA awards finalist.
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