MLB Betting: Saturday Best Bets

MLB Betting: Saturday Best Bets

This article is part of our MLB Betting series.

Previous day: 3-0, +2.42 RWBucks
Season: 3-5, -2.58 RWBucks

We have another full day of baseball Saturday, and there are some interesting matchups across the board. Few true aces are scheduled to pitch and some bullpens have logged relatively heavy workloads, so totals could be a bit volatile.

In my most recent column Thursday, I hit on a pair of over/under wagers and a moneyline bet to break the proverbial ice after a tough first edition last Saturday. We'll look to keep it going with two wagers on early games.

Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook.

Marlins at Mets, 1:10 p.m. EDT

Starting Pitchers: Trevor Rogers vs. Jacob deGrom

The Pick: Under 7.0 runs (-108) for 1 RWBuck

Rogers ran into some control issues in his first start of the season against the Cardinals, but he still racked up six strikeouts in four innings while only allowing two hits. The left-hander has excellent strikeout upside with a fastball that regularly hits the mid-90s and faces a Mets lineup that has multiple lefties, including the lefty-swinging deGrom when he likely takes at least three at-bats at the bottom of the order.

DeGrom pitched more than well enough for a win in his first start of the season, but his six scoreless frames went to waste when the bullpen blew a lead against the Phillies. However, there's reason for optimism Saturday, with deGrom taking on a Marlins team that's only scored 21 runs through seven games and has lost four straight.

The Mets are huge  moneyline favorites because of deGrom, but I don't necessarily envision any win being a particularly lopsided one due to the understated quality of the opposing pitcher. 

Mariners at Twins, 2:10 pm

Starting Pitchers: Yusei Kikuchi vs. Michael Pineda 

The Pick: Twins -195 for 1 RWBuck

Kikuchi showed impressive velocity in his first start of the season against the Giants, reaching the mid-90s with his fastball while punching out 10 Giants in six frames. He did allow a couple of homers, however, and now faces a Twins team batting .333/.384/.526 with a .393 wOBA over their first 86 plate appearances against southpaws. Minnesota has notorious lefty masher Nelson Cruz among its arsenal of weapons, and the Twins have an MLB-high 51.9 percent hard-contact rate against lefties.

Pineda also performed well in his first trip to the mound of the season, recording five scoreless innings while striking out five versus the Brewers. The veteran right-hander has done a reasonably good job limiting the damage in recent seasons, and he's in a favorable spot against a Mariners squad that's struck out at a 28.1 percent clip versus righties.  

A Twins bullpen that's allowed just a 2.70 ERA and .276 wOBA to the first 108 batters it has faced and the Mariners' corresponding 4.99 and .338 figures in those categories clinch the Twins moneyline bet for me.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Juan Carlos Blanco
Winner of the FSWA 2016 Newcomer of the Year Award, Juan Carlos Blanco has been playing fantasy sports for over 20 years and covers NBA, MLB, NFL, CFL and Arena Football for Rotowire.com, including serving as the beat writer for teams in multiple sports. He has previously written for KFFL.com and remains an avid season-long and daily fantasy player in multiple sports as well.
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