DraftKings MLB: Monday Breakdown

DraftKings MLB: Monday Breakdown

This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.

As is typical, several teams have a day off Monday. As a result, we have only six games on the main slate. It's a day to pay down at pitcher, so there should be plenty of salary to go around for stacks and other top-hitting options. 

Pitchers

If you want to pay up at pitcher, Pablo Lopez ($10,000) is the player to spend on. He has both the best SIERA and K% on the slate between the last two seasons, and he'll also draw a matchup against an Arizona offense that has the second-worst wOBA and seventh-highest strikeout rate heading into Monday's games. 

Max Fried ($9,300) has started the season in strong form, posting 18.4 DK points per start. That makes him at least worth mentioning, but pitchers priced at least $1,000 cheaper have displayed at least similar – and in some cases better – skills. A matchup against the Mets is another reason to look elsewhere in cash games.

Zac Gallen ($7,600) is the best intersection of talent and price on the slate. He's compiled a 14:4 K:BB across 15 innings to begin the season. His 0.60 ERA and 0.67 WHIP won't last forever, but his price doesn't seem to account for his strong start to the campaign. He will square off against the Marlins, who have the fourth-highest strikeout rate in the league. 

Chris Paddack ($7,200) is another nice value option. He's posted an excellent 13:1 K:BB in his first 14.2 innings as a Twin. More appealing is the fact that he'll take on the Orioles, who have the highest strikeout rate in the league. Pairing Gallen and Paddack will leave an average of $4,400 for your eight hitter slots. 

Top Hitters 

Aaron Judge ($5,800) has the fourth-highest xwOBA in the league and third-best to Austin Riley and Yordan Alvarez among players available on the main slate Monday. He'll be playing at the Rogers Centre, which is a homer-friendly environment, and he will be facing Ross Stripling – who has allowed 1.8 HR/9 combined between the last two seasons. 

We already know that Yordan Alvarez ($5,100) has an excellent xwOBA and wOBA. Though he's still plenty expensive, he's only the 22nd highest-priced hitter. While that's far too expensive to list him as a value option, he stands out as mispriced among other stars in the player pool. 

Similar to Alvarez, it's worth noting the downturn in Byron Buxton's ($5,700) cost, which is currently at its lowest point in the campaign. He's been in a short-term slump, but he homered Sunday and is squaring off against Tyler Wells. Wells has an impressive 21 K-BB% across 70 innings combined between the last two seasons, but he has surrendered 1.5 HR/9. 

Value Hitters 

Gio Urshela ($3,100) has regularly occupied the fourth and fifth spot in the Twins' lineup. He's underperformed his expected stats by nearly any measure (wOBA vs. xwOBA, slugging % vs. xlg) and also has the aforementioned matchup against Wells. 

Chas McCormick ($3,000) has served as the Astros' primary leadoff hitter with Jose Altuve sidelined. He makes consistent contact (18.3 K%), which is enough for him to have the opportunity to reach base with the powerful middle of the Houston lineup batting behind him.

Stacks to Consider

Seattle Mariners vs. Jake Odorizzi: Adam Frazier ($4,600), Ty France ($6,000), Jesse Winker ($5,200)

Odorizzi ticks all the boxes we look for in opposing pitchers, including a low strikeout rate, high walk rate and surrendering lots of home runs. The top of the Mariners' lineup is overpriced, though J.P. Crawford ($5,600), Eugenio Suarez ($5,400) and Abraham Toro ($4,300) aren't exactly cheap. There are ways to pay down at pitcher, so this is a viable stack in lineups where the elite pitchers aren't rostered. 

Houston Astros vs. Marco Gonzales: Chas McCormick ($3,000), Michael Brantley ($4,200), Alex Bregman ($5,100), Yordan Alvarez ($5,100)

The Astros' lineup is also worth targeting on the slate, and it surprisingly checks in much cheaper than the Mariners options. McCormick is a strong value, while Bregman and Alvarez are also on the cheaper end of star players in the player pool. Meanwhile, Gonzales has allowed the second-highest contact rate on the slate and has allowed 1.9 HR/9 across the last two seasons. 

New York Yankees vs. Ross Stripling: DJ LeMahieu ($5,200), Aaron Judge ($5,800), Anthony Rizzo ($5,500), Giancarlo Stanton ($5,000)

Ross Stripling has had a very good start to the season as measured by both surface stats and underlying data. However, his track record suggests that won't last, so I'll bet on that beginning Monday. The Yankees stack is very expensive, but doable on tonight's slate given the value hitters and quality starting pitching available for cheap prices. 

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Dan Marcus plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: marcusd91 DraftKings: dmarcus87.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Dan Marcus
Dan started covering fantasy sports in 2015, joining Rotowire in 2018. In addition to Rotowire, Dan has written for Baseball HQ and Rotoballer.
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