DraftKings MLB: Tuesday Picks

DraftKings MLB: Tuesday Picks

This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.

PITCHER

David Price, BOS at ATL ($11,400): The Braves are sporting a 41 wRC+, .235 wOBA, .036 ISO, and 23.7 percent K rate along with walking just 5.4 percent of the time. At first glance, Price's superficial numbers look quite bad (namely his 7.06 ERA), but after further examination (as one could've done for Chris Archer prior to his start Monday) the sabermetrics paint a different picture. Price has a 33 percent K rate (his season best was 26.9 percent in 2014) and a 2.56 SIERA (again, his best was in 2014 with a 2.72). And his xFIP, if you prefer to look there, sits at a pretty 2.86 this season.

Kyle Hendricks, CHC vs. MIL ($8,600): A 17 mph sustained wind coming in from straight center field is expected Tuesday. This elicits a big defensive bump to pitchers in the sometimes home-run affluent Wrigley Field. Hendricks, as has been true through much of his career, has been solid this season with a 20 percent K rate (his career number is 20.2 percent), 3.11 SIERA and 2.85 xFIP. The Brewers strikeout at the fourth-highest rate in the league against righties (25.7 percent) and accompany that with a very mediocre 87 wRC+.

CATCHER

Stephen Vogt, OAK at DET ($3,400): Don't be fooled by Mike Pelfrey's seemingly solid start to the season with his 3.68 ERA. His SIERA sits at an ugly 6.22 and xFIP isn't much better at 5.70. This season against lefties, Pelfrey is surrendering a .536 wOBA (his career number against lefties is .350). Last season, Vogt managed a .353 wOBA against right-handed pitching, and this season he has a solid .319. This game has an over/under of nine, with the A's favored.

FIRST BASE

Jose Abreu, CHW at TOR ($4,000): The sample size is understandably small with the lack of knuckleballers in the league, but in terms of "PITCHf/x Pitch Values / 100" – a stat used to find what pitches a player has performed best against per 100 at bats – Abreu's does best against knuckleballs.

SECOND BASE

Jose Altuve, HOU at SEA ($4,800): Altuve has been spectacular this season, and with his BABIP right at his career average, it very well may be at least somewhat sustainable. Altuve has paired his .437 wOBA and .296 ISO with nine stolen bases already this season. Nate Karns is a fairly middle-of-the-road pitcher who gives up more walks than average, while both Karns and Chris Ianetta are negative in terms of preventing stolen bases – Karns has a minus-11.36 rSB/.001IP (a metric to show how good a pitcher or catcher is a preventing stolen bases) and Ianetta has a minus-2.39 rSB/.001IP.

THIRD BASE

David Freese, PIT at COL ($3,800): Assuming he moves back to his customary third spot in the order against lefties, Freese provides affordable accessibility to the team with the highest projected run total. In his career, Freese has a .362 wOBA against left-handed pitching. Rubby De La Rosa is Colorado's No. 1, believe it or not, and matched against Gerrit Cole this game has a fairly pedestrian 10.5 over/under, considering its at Coors Field.

SHORTSTOP

Francisco Lindor, CLE at MIN ($3,700):Kurt Suzuki has been routinely taken advantage of on the base paths, and Lindor is sneakily able to exploit his poor arm. Lindor has shown through his career to be a 20 stolen bases type of players, and he has started of this season hot with a .349 wOBA.

OUTFIELD

Michael Brantley, CLE at MIN ($4,200): After starting the season on the sidelines, Brantley has been activated and appears a strong chance to get the start. There's some validity in being cautious with using him right away, but with a career .349 wOBA against righties and opposing pitcher Ricky Nolasco, who's ceding a .340 wOBA against lefties, this price seems worthy of taking a shot.

Brandon Moss, STL at ARI ($3,300): Moss is a perfect example of being pulled down by an unreasonable BABIP, as his sits at .148 while his career number is .294. Despite this, Moss has been serviceable due to his power stroke, eliciting a .298 ISO and .325 wOBA. A .148 BABIP is the result of bad luck, simply stated, and Shelby Miller's career deficiency against lefties, along with the great hitting environment in Arizona, could spell a big day at a moderate price for Moss.

Corey Dickerson, TBR vs. BAL ($3,200): When there's a righty on the mound, Dickerson is almost always a consideration. His career numbers against lefties of .401 wOBA, .274 ISO and 143 wRC+ are spectacular – especially when you consider his barely priced above $3K. Ubaldo Jimenez has been serviceable this season, but he has had some struggles against lefties, who have a .457 wOBA against him (though, somewhat fueled by an unsustainable BABIP).

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Alex Spalding plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: ajump08, DraftKings: ajump08.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Alex Spalding
Alex splits his expertise between College Basketball, NBA, NFL, MLB, and Saturday morning BPL. You'll find him under the username ajump08 on DraftKings and FanDuel.
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