MLB Bets Today: MLB Same-Game Parlays and Props for Thursday, July 24
2025 Betting Record: 21-23-1 (-3.68 units)
2025 Player Props Betting Record: 14-10 (+2.72 units)
We have a very abbreviated slate Thursday, but there are a couple of same-game parlay opportunities that stand out for the AL West battles that comprise the last two games of the slate.
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Best MLB Bets Today
MLB Picks for Athletics at Astros
- SGP: Over 3.5 runs and Nick Kurtz Over 1.5 Total Bases (+135 on BetMGM Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
Luis Severino and Jason Alexander will take the hill for this division clash, a matchup that sets up a volatile environment where plenty of offense could be on tap.
Severino has had more than his share of blow-up outings this season, surrendering at least five earned runs on eight occasions. He's now carrying a forgettable 3-11 record that's accompanied by a 5.10 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, .285 xBA and .346 xwOBA. The veteran right-hander has pitched well in two outings against Houston, but he's still surrendered a collective .295 average and .804 OPS to current Astros bats across 100 career plate appearances.
On the other side, Alexander has an 8.10 ERA and 1.80 WHIP over his first six appearances (one start). To be fair, the ugliness is largely the result of a nightmare of an outing against the Dodgers where he gave up nine earned runs in just 2.1 innings, including all three homers he's yielded thus far this season.
Nevertheless, Alexander has allowed an elevated 11.5% barrel rate and has had a lot of trouble with left-handed hitters, who've tagged him for a .281 average, .989 OPS and .419 wOBA. Meanwhile, the Athletics' Nick Kurtz is enjoying a fantastic rookie season and has tormented right-handed pitching for a 309 average, 1.076 OPS, .449 wOBA and 20.8 wRAA.
Kurtz also has 140 total bases in 64 games thanks in part to his 36 extra-base hits (out of 64 total). His .561 xSLG, 19.0% barrel rate and 93.3 mph average exit velocity all rank in the top-10 percentile in MLB.
We have a projected total of as much as 8.5 runs at some sportsbooks, so we'll bring that down significantly and pair it with a total bases prop for Kurtz for a very appealing SGP.
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MLB Picks for Mariners at Angels
- SGP: Over 3.5 runs and Cal Raleigh Over 1.5 Total Bases (+138 on BetMGM Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
The Mariners get a crack at old friend Yusei Kikuchi on Thursday night. The lefty checks in with an unsightly 4-6 record that's accompanied by a career-low 3.18 ERA. However, the veteran southpaw continues to have trouble with location as has been the case throughout his career, with his 1.38 WHIP largely the result of a 4.0 BB/9.
Kikuchi has pitched to a 4.64 ERA, .271 BAA and .332 wOBA in four July starts, and as has usually been the case throughout his career, he's allowing more than a home run per nine innings (1.1 HR/9). Thursday he faces one of his old battery mates in Raleigh, who's slugged an MLB-high 39 homers and boasts 227 total bases in 99 games.
The switch-hitting Raleigh has been at his best against lefties, posting a .321 average, .488 wOBA, massive .486 ISO and 227 wRC+ in that split. He's belted 16 homers off southpaws in 117 PAs, an absurd average of one round tripper every 7.3 PAs. Raleigh has also been at his best on the road, where he sports a 1.052 OPS overall and where he's hit 21 of his 39 homers.
Thursday's matchup carries a projected total of as high as 9.5 runs on some sportsbooks like BetMGM, as the talented but inconsistent rookie Logan Evans is on the mound for Seattle. Evans has a solid 3.81 ERA, but that's complemented by a 1.42 WHIP, .301 xBA, .505 xSLG, .370 xwOBA and 5.51 xERA. He's also pitched to a 5.06 ERA, 1.76 WHIP and 2.0 HR/9 on the road, worrisome numbers considering the hitter-friendly venue where he'll be toeing the rubber Thursday.
We'll roll with a same-game parlay that gives us plenty of breathing room on the total and also banks on Raleigh delivering at least two total bases, something he's done with ample ease on many occasions this season.
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MLB Picks Recap
- SGP: Athletics-Astros Over 3.5 runs and Nick Kurtz Over 1.5 Total Bases (+135 on BetMGM Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- SGP: Mariners-Angels Over 3.5 runs and Cal Raleigh Over 1.5 Total Bases (+138 on BetMGM Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
