Previous day: 0-3
Season: 4-6, -3.22 RWBucks
It's been a while, but I'm happy to be back in the rotation in the best bets series. I went 0-3 with my last set of picks, which is enough to leave a bad taste in my mouth. Let's bounce back on this Saturday slate, which features baseball throughout the day.
6:10 p.m. EDT, Kansas City (Mike Minor) +108 vs. Cleveland (Cal Quantrill), 1 RWBuck
Neither team has been in good form lately, making this somewhat of a toss up. However, the Royals' de facto ace in Minor will be on the hill. While Minor has been uneven throughout the season and particularly poor in his last three starts (18 ER in 16 IP), he should have a matchup to exploit Saturday. Cleveland ranks last in the league with an 84 wRC+ against left-handed pitching this season.
Speaking of inconsistent, Quantrill has struggled to work deep into games even in the time during which he has firmly been in the rotation. In each of his last three starts, he's allowed six, four and three earned runs. That puts the Royals in a reasonable position to win.
7:15 p.m. EDT, Milwaukee (Freddy Peralta) -1.5 (+110) vs. Cincinnati (Vladimir Gutierrez), 1 RWBuck
Milwaukee owns the advantage in several aspects of this game. Beginning with the matchup at starting pitcher, Gutierrez began his major league career in strong form, working at least five innings and not allowing more than two runs in his first four starts. However, in four outings since, he has allowed 16 earned runs in 21.1 innings. The team was 1-3 in those appearances. Meanwhile, Peralta has been remarkably consistent this season, with the team going 11-5 in games he has started.
The Brewers should have a particular advantage as the game wears on. Gutierrez has a 3.15 ERA after working through opposing orders twice. However, that mark jumps to 11.00 his third time through. That will put Reds manager David Bell under pressure to make the choice between pushing Gutierrez to the point where he loses effectiveness, or relying on a bullpen that has surrendered a 5.22 ERA this season. While they've run hot lately — Reds relievers have posted a 1.82 ERA the last 14 days — they are still an exploitable unit.
10:10 p.m. EDT, Walker Buehler under 7.5 strikeouts (-154) vs. Arizona, 1 RWBuck
Buehler has been effective this season, maintaining a 2.49 ERA and 0.92 WHIP across 108.1 innings this season. However, he hasn't gotten those results with a massive strikeout total, as he has 107 punch outs, or the equivalent of a 25.5 percent strikeout rate — the lowest of his career. In 10 starts dating to May 17, Buehler has topped 7.5 strikeouts just twice.
The matchup against Arizona still seems enticing due to their poor play through the first half of the season. However, the Diamondbacks have struggled to hit effectively from both a power and run creation standpoint (.130 ISO, 80 wRC+), but not necessarily to make contact. Against right-handed pitching this season, the team has struck out at a 24.4 percent clip — middle of the pack among major league teams. There's a strong argument that Buehler will have a good outing and earn the win, but that won't necessarily come due to strikeouts.
