An 11-game main slate awaits Tuesday as we're in the final stretch of the regular season, with first pitch at 7:05 p.m. EDT. No arm is priced in five-figuers and only four come in at $9,000 or greater, so we should be able to build a balanced lineup.
The Yankees (-225) are the slate's biggest favorites, followed by the Giants (-200) and Atlanta (-190). Conveniently, three of the top five highest-salaried arms are throwing for them, making for obvious targets. The highest run total (10.5) comes from Astros-Athletics, while Giants-Cardinals and Cubs-Mets are the low point (7.5). We need to monitor rain in New York and Chicago, but with so few games remaining and those both being meaningful, expect them to do everything possible to play. Current winds suggest inbound gusts in Chicago, further aiding that low run total.
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Pitching
Hurston Waldrep, ATL vs. WSH ($9,300): Of the four top arms, Logan Webb ($9,800) makes sense in a meaningful game for the Giants. I'm not on Kevin Gausman at $9,700 against the Red Sox, but he makes for a likely low-rostered GPP option, and Luis Gil ($9,200) will be popular for cash lineups against the lowly White Sox. Then there's Waldrep, who's been incredible in all but one start since being promoted. The Nationals have a 3.5 run expectancy, a below-average 99 wRC+ off righties, and Waldrep fanned eight in five innings against them during his last start. Atlanta is heavily highlighted in this column offensively too, suggesting Waldrep can get a win boost.
Cade Horton, CHC vs. NYM ($8,900): Horton has been dominant the entire second half, posting a 0.93 ERA (though a 3.97 xFIP), allowing just a .200 wOBA and .437 OPS. He doesn't strike out enough to provide a ceiling play, but with potential favorable winds and a struggling Mets offense, Horton can offer Gil's performance level for cash lineups but a touch cheaper.
Bryce Miller, SEA vs. COL ($7,500): Miller has looked like a shell of himself from prior seasons, but there's been occasional flashes. He fanned 11 two starts ago against the Angels. There likely can't be a more favorable matchup than this, however, and he gets a great home park factor against the league's worst offense against righties. Colorado has a 26.0 percent K rate, a 76 wRC+ and .298 wOBA. Miller has the potential to return as much as 6x value at this salary while opening up a ton of offensive spending.
Top Targets
Atlanta has won nine straight, scoring at least six runs in each. Ronald Acuna ($4,100) has 12 hits in his last eight, homering three times, walking 12 times and scoring 10. This entire lineup is on fire and one of the more obvious stacks of the night. More on that later.
Colorado's McCade Brown has been torched by everyone, but more so by lefties, allowing a .464 wOBA and 1.046 OPS in that split. Cal Raleigh ($4,500) is a clear fit if you can afford him, while Josh Naylor ($3,500) is more affordable and in decent form, riding an eight-game hitting streak that's seen multiple knocks in five of them.
Bargain Bats
As noted above, Atlanta's lineup is firing on all cylinders. Drake Baldwin ($2,700) is making his final arguments for NL Rookie of the Year honors, going 10-for-22 with two homers and 10 RBI in his last six. Ha-Seong Kim ($2,800) has a 10-game hitting streak with two homers, and a nine-game run scored streak.
Cristian Javier is allowing a .392 wOBA to lefties on the road. If you're not paying up for Nick Kurtz, who isn't raking at the moment, Lawrence Butler ($3,000) offers a high ceiling but zero floor, as does Tyler Soderstrom ($3,100).
Alejandro Kirk ($2,700) is 6-for-17 (.353) with four homers off Lucas Giolito.
Stacks to Consider
Cubs vs. David Peterson (Mets): Seiya Suzuki ($3,300), Nico Hoerner ($3,200), Dansby Swanson ($3,100)
This game will likely come with low roster rates for a multitude of reasons; the low run expectancy, the potential inbound winds, and the fact that the Cubs entire lineup is in rather poor form. But so is Peterson, who has allowed 21 runs and 28 hits across his last four starts spanning 17.1 innings. Right-handed bats have accounted for 21 of those hits, and they've posted a .449 wOBA and 1.070 OPS. Suzuki's .350 wOBA against lefties is the lowest of the trio, and his .235 ISO is the highest.
Angels vs. Cole Ragans (Royals): Taylor Ward ($3,300), Jo Adell ($3,100), Christian Moore ($2,600)
This game could provide a low-rostered stack on both sides. Ragans is limping to close the year, allowing 15 runs across his last four starts. For as strikeout prone as the Angles are, they have positive splits off lefties. Adell sits with a .400 wOBA, 158 wRC+ and .322 ISO, Ward at .378/143/.293 and Moore .376/142/.343. All three offer plus power potential, giving this risky play a chance to pop off.
