Another Friday, another robust day of MLB action, another chance to watch the Tigers lose a game they should win. You're not here for my complaints about the Tigers, though. There are 14 games on the DFS docket and you're looking for recommendations to help you make your lineup decisions. First pitch is at 7:05 p.m. ET. Here are those recommendations!
Pitching
Joe Ryan, MIN vs. KAN ($9,100): Ryan stayed in Minnesota at the deadline, giving the Twins a high-quality pitcher around which to rebuild the rotation. Unless, you know, they trade him another time. It's understandable why teams would want his professional services, given that he has a 2.83 ERA this year and has finished with a K/BB rate over 5.50 in each of the last three campaigns. As for the Royals, they are 28th in runs scored…but they are one run ahead of the Rockies…and they have played an extra game.
Luis Castillo, SEA vs. TAM ($8,100): Castillo has really enjoyed his time with Seattle. This is his third full season with the Mariners, and he has a 2.92 ERA at home compared to a 4.01 ERA on the road. He's also full-on locked in, posting a 2.20 ERA over his last seven outings. Tampa is above average in terms of runs scored, but it has benefited from its temporary home park. Also, Jonathan Aranda is injured at the moment, and you never know about the health of the Lowes, Brandon and Josh.
Zac Gallen, ARI vs. COL ($8,000): I care not about Gallen's 5.48 ERA and not really because he has a 4.64 FIP. It's not his 4.75 ERA over the last five starts, either. No, it's the Rockies. The Rockies are the worst team in baseball. Colorado is 29th in runs scored and has a .688 OPS even with its home ballpark. The Rockies just got absolutely throttled by the Blue Jays. If you can't handle the Rockies away from Coors Field, you just aren't a viable MLB pitcher.
Top Targets
When I say Vladimir Guerrero ($5,900) has been tearing the cover off the ball, you might say, "Sure, he was just at Coors Field." Well, while he has an 1.081 OPS over the last week, his OPS over the last three weeks is actually 1.140. On the year, he has a .935 OPS versus lefties, and Clayton Kershaw is a lefty. He's also not the pitcher he used to be, which is fair given this is his age-37 season and all the injuries he's had to deal with. Case in point, he has a 5.76 K/9 rate. That's not good with somebody like Guerrero, who has been spraying line drives all over the field.
The Diamondbacks have two quality middle infielders who are switch hitters, but one of them is better against lefties and also is the one who is better at home. That would be Geraldo Perdomo ($4,600). He has an .813 OPS versus southpaws and also an .864 OPS in Arizona. Since 2023, Austin Gomber has allowed righties to hit .287 against him. Also, while he has a 6.16 ERA at home in that time, his 4.26 road ERA isn't exactly great.
Bargain Bats
Though I expressed my frustrations with the Tigers' play over the last few weeks, that doesn't mean there isn't DFS opportunity here. Take Kerry Carpenter ($3,800), for example. He returned from injury, and over his last eight games he has an 1.647 OPS. He may only be viable against righties, but since 2023, he's slugged .555 against righties. Carpenter's lefty-on-righty power is truly upper-echelon stuff. Well, Kyle Hendricks' fastball is slower than a lot of pitchers' change-ups these days, and he's allowed 1.45 homers per nine innings. That's with help from his home ballpark. On the road he has a 5.44 ERA and 1.6 HR/9 rate.
In terms of saving some money at catcher but getting some upside (a fine opportunity for bang-for-your-buck for your lineup), I like Liam Hicks ($2,900). The southpaw lacks for power, but he has a .364 OBP versus righties and a .358 OBP on the road. He also has a 25.9 line-drive percentage. Bryce Elder is a righty who is on pace to finish with an ERA over 6.00 for the second season in a row. Not only that, but over the last three seasons he has a 5.03 ERA at home.
Stacks to Consider
Padres vs. Red Sox (Walker Buehler): Jackson Merrill ($4,600), Ryan O'Hearn ($4,200), Jake Cronenworth ($3,900)
Unfortunately, it would appear Buehler's elbow injury has left him no longer a viable MLB pitcher. He returned with the Dodgers last year after missing all of 2023 and posted a 5.38 ERA. This season he got more distance from his Tommy John surgery and a change of scenery, but he has a 5.74 ERA and 1.61 K/BB rate. Even worse, he has a 7.44 ERA on the road. Since returning, Buehler has let lefties hit .313 against him, so I have three southpaws in this stack.
An injury has helped leave Merrill in a sophomore slump, but he's still slugged .424 against righties and .471 at home. He's also picked up four triples in only 82 games, so he's shown his ability on the base paths, which is encouraging. O'Hearn was added as part of San Diego's all-in deadline approach. Since 2023 he has an .804 OPS against righties. While we don't really know how he will take to Petco Park, in each of the prior two seasons he had a sub-.700 OPS at home, so he was by no means a product of Baltimore's ballpark. Cronenworth is a second baseman who gets on base reasonably well. He has a .356 OBP against righties, and the same .356 OBP at home. Plus, six of his nine home runs have been hit against righties. Positionally speaking, he makes sense in this matchup.
Athletics at Orioles (Tomoyuki Sugano): Nick Kurtz ($6,200), Brent Rooker ($5,400), Darell Hernaiz ($3,000)
Sugano's long-delayed move to the United States from his native Japan has gone poorly. He has a 5.06 FIP, a 6.00 K/9 rate, and a 1.66 HR/9 rate. Lefties have hit .268 against him, and righties have hit .271. I ended up with one lefty and two righties in this stack, though it's hard to go wrong.
Kurtz has hit the ground running like few rookie sluggers. He's hit 23 home runs in only 76 games, and he doesn't merely have power. The rookie southpaw has a .387 OBP as well. Rooker also has 23 home runs, though he's done it in 117 games. He's better against lefties, but since 2023 he's slugged .505 against righties, which more than suffices. Hernaiz wasn't ready for MLB last season, but in Triple-A this year he hit .305 with 27 doubles, three triples and 12 stolen bases in 95 games. With Jacob Wilson injured, he got a call up as a temporary replacement. It's worked out well thus far. Though it's only eight games, Hernaiz has hit .321 with two homers, a triple and a stolen base.
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