Though we just had a holiday weekend, the MLB isn't taking it easy Monday. You can chalk that up to the looming break for All-Star festivities. There are nine games on the schedule starting at 7:10 p.m. ET or later. Here are my lineup recommendations for you.
Pitching
Yusei Kikuchi, LAA vs. TEX ($9,200): Were you to poll Angels fans in Anaheim, they might assert Kikuchi is a Cy Young candidate. I'd understand. After all, while he has a 4.33 ERA on the road, the lefty has an 1.12 ERA at home. Kikuchi gets to be at home Monday against the team that ranks 25th in runs scored, and on top of that the Rangers have a sub-.300 OBP.
Noah Cameron, KAN vs. PIT ($7,900): Don't expect much offense in this game, what with both of these teams being in the running for worst offensive squad in MLB. Cameron may not get much run support, but he's handled his business most days. He has a 2.56 ERA through 10 starts, but he's had eight good outings and two that were poor. Those bad days were against the Yankees and Dodgers, which is understandable. The Pirates are decidedly not the Yankees or Dodgers.
Richard Fitts, BOS vs. COL ($7,800): I'll take a shot on Fitts, given the matchup. He has a career 3.33 ERA over 11 MLB starts. While Fitts has been homer prone, the Rockies aren't equipped to take advantage of that. They are in the bottom five in runs scored and the bottom 10 in homers, and that's with playing home games at Coors Field.
Top Targets
Sure, Bobby Witt ($4,100) "only" has 12 home runs – most shortstops would take that through 91 games – but he's out here with a chance to steal 50 bases and hit 50 doubles, so let's not wring our hands. Plus, since 2023 he has a .946 OPS at home. The lefty Andrew Heaney has only struck out 6.87 batters per nine innings, and he has a 5.79 ERA on the road.
Miami needed power in its lineup and it found that power in…a guy who came into this season with a career .332 slugging percentage. That would be Kyle Stowers ($3,400), who has slugged .514 and hit 16 home runs in 84 games. The lefty isn't slowing down, either, having posted an 1.144 OPS over the last three weeks. Brady Singer's change-of-scenery trade hasn't worked out for him (or Jonathan India, really). He's allowed 1.5 homers per nine innings in Cincinnati's homer-friendly ballpark, and lefties have hit eight of the 10 home runs he's given up on the season.
Bargain Bats
When Jose Altuve ($3,200) is hitting triples and having multihomer games, and against the Dodgers no less, you know he's locked in. Indeed, the Venezuelan has a .900 OPS over the last three weeks, a number that pops much better now that he's back at second base. Tanner Bibee is moving in the wrong direction this season and in general. He has a 5.09 ERA over his last seven starts, getting his ERA up to 4.20 on the season. That puts him on pace to see his ERA increase for the second season in a row…and he's in his third MLB season.
The Red Sox are quite lefty heavy right now, but Ceddanne Rafaela ($3,100) is manning center field and bringing a solid bat as well. He's hit 11 homers and 20 doubles, and also he's stolen 11 bases. I grant you Austin Gomber isn't having to pitch at Coors on Monday, but his career 4.88 ERA isn't all about Coors Field. Last season (he's only pitched five innings on the road this year) he had a 4.55 ERA in away games.
Stacks to Consider
Padres vs. Diamondbacks (Zac Gallen): Fernando Tatis ($3,900), Jackson Merrill ($3,200), Jake Cronenworth ($3,000)
This season, Gallen has seen his ERA balloon to 5.54, bolstered by his HR/9 rate rising to 1.73. However, in the past it was always his home park helping him out on the homer front. Since 2023 he has an 1.4 HR/9 rate on the road. This season lefties have also done better against Gallen than in the past, managing a .275 average. That's why I have two lefties in this stack.
Tatis is right-handed, but he's slugged .508 against his fellow righties. He's also slugged .513 at home. Merrill hasn't been great since returning from injury, but this is a guy who hit 24 home runs last season as a rookie. I think he'll pick it up in time, as he had five homers and two triples before his somewhat lengthy injury absence. Cronenworth has a .775 OPS over the last three weeks, and over the last three seasons he has a .752 OPS versus righties and a .748 OPS at home. The second baseman has gotten on base at a .354 clip this year, which sets the table nicely for his teammates.
Reds vs. Marlins (Janson Junk): Elly De La Cruz ($3,800), TJ Friedl ($2,900), Gavin Lux ($2,600)
Junk is on his fourth team in five MLB seasons, which is not what one would call a vote of confidence. He has a career 5.24 ERA while largely pitching out of the bullpen, which is not a great starting point to be sure. Since 2023, lefties have hit .359 against Junk, so I have three southpaws from the Reds.
There has been more balance this year from De La Cruz, who has 18 homers to go with 22 stolen bases. He still greatly prefers facing righties, even if he is a switch hitter, as he has a .920 OPS in those matchups. Friedl has been cold, but he has a .372 OBP with eight home runs and nine swiped bags. He also has an .841 OPS against righties. Lux has an .814 OPS over the last three weeks. He doesn't have a ton of power, but he's slugged .432 against righties, and .417 at home.
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