Weekly Pitcher Rankings: Sale-ing Ks for IP

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Updated on May 21, 2016 3:23PM EST

As always, remember that rotations are subject to change, so if you see something that looks incorrect, assume that it was a change that occurred since this was written and feel free to politely bring it up in the comments. I'll let you know where the new arm slots.

For the week May 23-29

AMERICAN LEAGUE

START

RANK	PITCHER	OPPONENT	COMMENT
1	Chris Sale	CLE, at KC	What we're losing in Ks is being made up in IP and Ws; plus, he's still just a huge K game away from being back over 1 per inning
2	David Price	COL, at TOR	There goes your buy-low opportunity, yes even as he carries a 5.53 ERA
3	Danny Salazar	BAL	Elevated BB% might be purposeful change in approach yielding fewer fat pitches and thus fewer HRs aka being effectively wild
4	Drew Smyly	MIA
5	Corey Kluber	at CWS	BBs way up this month (9%), but still only one bad start out of the four; skills still say 4.10 ERA is too high; buy
6	Jordan Zimmermann	at OAK
7	Masahiro Tanaka	at TB
8	Felix Hernandez	MIN	SwStr dropped every start through his F6 before jumping to 10% in each of his L2; think I'd still buy on a discount
9	Kevin Gausman	at CLE
10	Cole Hamels	PIT
11	Jose Quintana	CLE
12	Taijuan Walker	OAK, MIN	Getting hit in BAL is hardly a crime, though he hasn't completed 6 IP all month
13	Jake Odorizzi	at MIA, NYY

For the week May 23-29

AMERICAN LEAGUE

START

RANK	PITCHER	OPPONENT	COMMENT
1	Chris Sale	CLE, at KC	What we're losing in Ks is being made up in IP and Ws; plus, he's still just a huge K game away from being back over 1 per inning
2	David Price	COL, at TOR	There goes your buy-low opportunity, yes even as he carries a 5.53 ERA
3	Danny Salazar	BAL	Elevated BB% might be purposeful change in approach yielding fewer fat pitches and thus fewer HRs aka being effectively wild
4	Drew Smyly	MIA
5	Corey Kluber	at CWS	BBs way up this month (9%), but still only one bad start out of the four; skills still say 4.10 ERA is too high; buy
6	Jordan Zimmermann	at OAK
7	Masahiro Tanaka	at TB
8	Felix Hernandez	MIN	SwStr dropped every start through his F6 before jumping to 10% in each of his L2; think I'd still buy on a discount
9	Kevin Gausman	at CLE
10	Cole Hamels	PIT
11	Jose Quintana	CLE
12	Taijuan Walker	OAK, MIN	Getting hit in BAL is hardly a crime, though he hasn't completed 6 IP all month
13	Jake Odorizzi	at MIA, NYY	Back-to-back uninspired starts with too many HR and not enough Ks or IP; monitoring him this week
14	Rich Hill	at SEA, DET
15	Chris Tillman	at HOU, at CLE	Had >10% SwStr rate in just 4 games last year; has 5 this year (and two others at 9%); probably more a 3.20ish ERA guy, but this looks like a legit breakout
16	Justin Verlander	PHI	48% of his ER have come in 2 starts; 1.61 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 30% K in last 3 starts
17	Aaron Sanchez	at NYY	Early season darling no longer getting love despite continuing to be really good; 57% of season ER have come in two 6 ER starts; TOR's best SP going
18	Marco Estrada	at NYY
19	Chris Archer	NYY	Has 4 BBs in 3 of his last 4 and at least 2 BBs in all but one start; hard to feel confident
20	Marcus Stroman	BOS
21	Rick Porcello	at TOR
22	Nathan Eovaldi	TOR, at TB	Best skills ever marred by worst HR rate ever; inclined to say 17% HR/FB rate has some bad luck in it considerng his GB tendencies (55%) and career 8% HR/FB; buy
23	Ian Kennedy	at MIN, CWS	HR rate still high (1.3 HR/9), but 5 of the 7 have come in two starts; I prefer that to giving HRs almost every single game like last year (at least 1 HR in 77% of his starts)
24	Ervin Santana	KC, at SEA	WHIP and other skills say 3.13 ERA is too good, but still a mid-3.00s kind of guy who stabilizes any fantasy rotation
25	Lance McCullers	BAL
26	Nate Karns	OAK
27	Yu Darvish	PIT	OK, I jumped the gun last week, but now it looks like he could join the rotation late next week if all goes well this weeknd with Frisco
28	Steven Wright	COL
29	Carlos Rodon	at KC
30	Hisashi Iwakuma	OAK
31	Trevor Bauer	BAL
32	J.A. Happ	BOS	Regression all came in one fell swoop (not really how it works, but we knew he wasn't a 2.05 ERA guy); modest AL pool keeps him relevant
33	Sonny Gray	at SEA	First 4 starts: 29% Hard contact, 60% GB; last 5: 37%, 46%; falling behind, leaving the ball up, not getting same # of whiffs; one silver lining is that velocity has held, offering hope that it's not injury
34	Dallas Keuchel	at LAA	Having a hard time finding reasons to believe in a rebound that aren't just "he's the reinging Cy Young"
35	R.A. Dickey	at NYY, BOS	Don't look now, but he has a 2.30 ERA in May, slicing 2.25 runs off of his ERA in the process
36	Mike Clevinger	at CWS, BAL	Filthy for 5 IP in debut before a bumpy 6th; the 6th is often the biggest hurdle for young arms; one of my favorite mid-tier prospects, I'm buying here
37	Mike Fiers	at LAA
38	Wade Miley	MIN
39	Josh Tomlin	at CWS
40	Michael Pineda	at TB	AL's highest HR rate (2.1 HR/9) faces team with 2nd-most HRs hit (60) ... good luck
41	Anibal Sanchez	PHI
42	Collin McHugh	BAL	On a frustarting every-other-start pattern, ER in L5: 5, 2, 4, 1, 4, and 2; upside looks like 3.90-4.20 ERA
43	CC Sabathia	TOR
44	Edinson Volquez	at MIN, CWS
45	Hector Santiago	at TEX	One of the most frustrating SPs out there with Jekyll and Hyde personality; deep leagues only
46	Jhoulys Chacin	at TEX	Early season swing-and-miss has dissipated: 14% SwStr in F3 starts; 7% in L4
47	Jesse Hahn	DET	Survived one really bad inning in return; not missing enough bats for all-formats viability, but worth watching
48	Matt Moore	at MIA, NYY	Can't figure this guy out, 23% K and 8% BB are career bests, but 1.6 HR/9 is career worst; more trouble than he's worth for now
49	Tyler Duffey	KC
50	Doug Fister	BAL, at LAA
51	Cody Anderson	at CWS
52	Nick Tropeano	at TEX, HOU	Too many base runners and homers to maintain a 3.30 ERA, but enough intriguing skills to cut said base runners and sustain a sub-4.00 mark
53	Martin Perez	LAA	I want to like him (power lefty with big GB%), but I can't explain a 2.67 ERA in L5 starts with 20 Ks and 15 BBs in 30.3 IP
53	Matt Andriese	MIA	Solid arsenal and increased velo make him somewhat interesting, but doesn't miss enough bats and is riding a .167 BABIP to early success; deep leagues only
54	Ricky Nolasco	KC, at SEA

SIT

RANK	PITCHER	OPPONENT	COMMENT
55	Mike Wright	at HOU	A few more missed bats from at least AL-only viability; worth watching
56	Ivan Nova	TOR	Hasn't logged more than 3 Ks in any of his 3 starts; tough to be too excited
57	Michael Fulmer	at OAK
58	Sean Manaea	DET	Best start yet only cut his ERA to 7.91; hoping OAK gives him another handful of starts to build on the success
59	Miguel Gonzalez	at KC
60	Mat Latos	CLE, at KC	Took 3 starts to go from 1.84 to 4.00 and it's unlikely to stop going up
61	Danny Duffy	CWS
62	Yordano Ventura	CWS	Last start finally gave him more Ks than BBs, but his 1% K-BB% is worst among 105 qualified SPs; not starting anywhere and cutting in most leagues
63	Phil Hughes	at SEA
64	Joe Kelly	at TOR	Dominating his rehab, but this is hardly the softest landing; gotta see something first
65	Kendall Graveman	at SEA
66	Matt Shoemaker	HOU
67	Erik Johnson	CLE	Getting a spot start for the doubleheader vs. CLE
68	Derek Holland	LAA, PIT
69	Clay Buchholz	COL
70	Ubaldo Jimenez	at CLE
71	Colby Lewis	LAA
72	Tyler Wilson	at HOU	Just too much contact to find regular success (12% K rate as SP)
73	Dillon Gee	at MIN
74	Jered Weaver	HOU	Does his $20 million salary keep him in the rotation when Lincecum is ready?
75	Mike Pelfrey	PHI, at OAK	Ooh yipee, two starts ... this Tigers fan is psyched!

NATIONAL LEAGUE

START

RANK	PITCHER	OPPONENT	COMMENT
1	Clayton Kershaw	CIN, at NYM	It is ridiculous that he just keeps getting better; he's markedly better than the rest of the league ... so filthy
2	Stephen Strasburg	NYM, STL
3	Johnny Cueto	SD, at COL	Has gone 7-plus IP in all but one of his nine starts
4	Jake Arrieta	at STL	In the span of three starts, he's gone from 7.7 to 9.0 K/9
5	Noah Syndergaard	LAD
6	Max Scherzer	STL
7	Jose Fernandez	at TB	Still walking a lot (4.3 BB/9), but that's less of an issue when you're allowing just 7 hits per nine
8	Jon Lester	at PHI
9	Jaime Garcia	at WAS
10	Jacob deGrom	LAD	His 11% SwStr rate says the Ks are coming so if the 16% K rate can offer any sort of discount, take it
11	Gerrit Cole	ARI	Hasn't quite been his dominant self (20% K, 8% SwStr), but surviving with less-than-best stuff
12	Jeff Samardzija	SD	Has 1.42 ERA, 29 Ks, and 9.7 K:BB ratio in May (31.7 IP)
13	Zack Greinke	SD
14	Madison Bumgarner	at COL	Pedestrian numbers in Coors (4.21 ERA and 1.42 WHIP), but I still can't envision sitting him
15	Gio Gonzalez	NYM, STL	Trading Ks for more command and control yielding fewer BBs and more weak contact
16	John Lackey	at STL, PHI
17	Drew Pomeranz	at SF, at ARI
18	Vince Velasquez	at DET, at CHC	Don't want to overstate one week, but this is a big test against 2 top-5 offenses on the road
19	Michael Wacha	CHC, at WAS
20	Julio Teheran	MIL, MIA	Lefties still an issue (.801 OPS), but these 2 teams start a combined 5 lefties
21	Wei-Yin Chen	TB, at ATL	Pitching better than his 4.22 ERA; a couple blah outings inflating the bottom line
22	Jason Hammel	at STL
23	Steven Matz	at WAS
24	Matt Harvey	at WAS	Particularly rough outing has Collins apparently considering a skip, which seems like an overreaction
25	Aaron Nola	at DET
26	Tanner Roark	NYM	Has allowed more than 1 ER in four starts and it's been one bad inning in all four; skills even better than 2014 breakout
27	Kenta Maeda	at NYM	Speculation that MLB schedule might be catching up to him, but he denied that
28	Adam Conley	at ATL
29	Joe Ross	STL
30	Carlos Martinez	CHC
31	Jimmy Nelson	at ATL, CIN	His 1.2 HR/9 was built up in F4 starts (6 of his 8 HRs allowed), he's been strong in L5: 2.76 ERA, 1.13 WHIP
32	Kyle Hendricks	PHI
33	James Shields	at SF
34	Jerad Eickhoff	at CHC	Only 3 ER per start over L4, but only 12 Ks, too; lefties owning him
35	Francisco Liriano	ARI, at TEX	Strong three of last four (1-2 ER), but fourth of those was 4.7 IP/8 ER at CHC; looks to be emerging from his funk
36	Jeremy Hellickson	at DET
37	Matt Wisler	MIL	Biggest issue coming into '16 was LHB: .595 OPS vs. them and .597 vs. RHB; still wish for more Ks, but induces a lot of weak contact
38	Junior Guerra	at ATL	Super-filthy splitter carrying him to impressive start to MLB career; has gone 6-plus in all 4 starts
39	Brandon Finnegan	at LAD, at MIL
40	Bartolo Colon	at WAS, LAD
41	Adam Wainwright	CHC, at WAS	3 QS in L4 = turning point? Maaaaybe, still hasn't fanned more than 5 in a single start
42	Juan Nicasio	at TEX
43	Scott Kazmir	at NYM	Tough to trust with inconsistency; 5 games with 2-plus HR allowed are an MLB-high, too
44	Dan Straily	at LAD	Still hasn't allowed more than 3 ER in a start; 3 BB in each of L3 starts, though; deep-league buy
45	Rubby De La Rosa	at PIT
46	Ross Stripling	CIN
47	Alex Wood	at NYM	Not a huge fan, but can't deny quality of L4: 2.59 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 30 Ks in 24.3 IP
48	Mike Leake	at WAS
49	Patrick Corbin	at PIT	2 outs away from four straight QS in May, but still allowing way too much hard contact (41% is MLB high)
50	Logan Verrett	LAD	Unconfirmed, but he's their swingman and seems like best fit for DH vs. LAD on May 29

SIT

RANK	PITCHER	OPPONENT	COMMENT
51	Shelby Miller	at PIT, SD
52	Jon Gray	at BOS	Ouch, so much for the road-only viability! I'm kind of kidding, but 3.3 IP/9 ER at StL was tough to take; at BOS not the place to get right, either
53	Chad Bettis	SF
54	Colin Rea	at ARI
55	Tyler Chatwood	SF
56	John Lamb	at MIL
57	Eddie Butler	at BOS	He's been sharp home and away, but not trusting him (or any mid-level and below SPs) in BOS
58	Cesar Vargas	at ARI
59	Jon Moscot	at LAD
60	Chase Anderson	CIN	Too much of a HR machine to consistently be effective (2.3 HR/9)
61	Robbie Ray	SD
62	Jon Niese	at TEX
63	Tom Koehler	TB, at ATL
64	Jake Peavy	SD
65	Adam Morgan	at CHC
66	Wily Peralta	at ATL	Even a trip to ATL doesn't really move the needle
67	Matt Cain	at COL
68	Mike Foltynewicz	MIL
69	Christian Friedrich	at SF
70	Williams Perez	MIA
71	Zach Davies	CIN
72	Alfredo Simon	at MIL
73	Casey Kelly	MIA	I thought Aaron Blair was more ready, but he just wasn't; now Kelly gets a crack
74	Chris Rusin	at BOS, SF
75	Jeff Locke	ARI
76	Justin Nicolino	at TB	Seems allergic to strikeouts (5% this year; 7% career)

MLB TOP 100

RANK	PITCHER	OPPONENT	COMMENT
1	Clayton Kershaw	CIN, at NYM	It is ridiculous that he just keeps getting better; he's markedly better than the rest of the league ... so filthy
2	Stephen Strasburg	NYM, STL
3	Johnny Cueto	SD, at COL	Has gone 7-plus IP in all but one of his nine starts
4	Chris Sale	CLE, at KC	What we're losing in Ks is being made up in IP and Ws; plus, he's still just a huge K game away from being back over 1 per inning
5	David Price	COL, at TOR	There goes your buy-low opportunity, yes even as he carries a 5.53 ERA
6	Jake Arrieta	at STL	In the span of three starts, he's gone from 7.7 to 9.0 K/9
7	Noah Syndergaard	LAD
8	Max Scherzer	STL
9	Jose Fernandez	at TB	Still walking a lot (4.3 BB/9), but that's less of an issue when you're allowing just 7 hits per nine
10	Jon Lester	at PHI
11	Danny Salazar	BAL	Elevated BB% might be purposeful change in approach yielding fewer fat pitches and thus fewer HRs aka being effectively wild
12	Drew Smyly	MIA
13	Jaime Garcia	at WAS
14	Jacob deGrom	LAD	His 11% SwStr rate says the Ks are coming so if the 16% K rate can offer any sort of discount, take it
15	Corey Kluber	at CWS	BBs way up this month (9%), but still only one bad start out of the four; skills still say 4.10 ERA is too high; buy
16	Jordan Zimmermann	at OAK
17	Gerrit Cole	ARI	Hasn't quite been his dominant self (20% K, 8% SwStr), but surviving with less-than-best stuff
18	Jeff Samardzija	SD	Has 1.42 ERA, 29 Ks, and 9.7 K:BB ratio in May (31.7 IP)
19	Zack Greinke	SD
20	Masahiro Tanaka	at TB
21	Felix Hernandez	MIN	SwStr dropped every start through his F6 before jumping to 10% in each of his L2; think I'd still buy on a discount
22	Kevin Gausman	at CLE
23	Cole Hamels	PIT
24	Jose Quintana	CLE
25	Madison Bumgarner	at COL	Pedestrian numbers in Coors (4.21 ERA and 1.42 WHIP), but I still can't envision sitting him
26	Taijuan Walker	OAK, MIN	Getting hit in BAL is hardly a crime, though he hasn't completed 6 IP all month
27	Jake Odorizzi	at MIA, NYY	Back-to-back uninspired starts with too many HR and not enough Ks or IP; monitoring him this week
28	Gio Gonzalez	NYM, STL	Trading Ks for more command and control yielding fewer BBs and more weak contact
29	John Lackey	at STL, PHI
30	Drew Pomeranz	at SF, at ARI
31	Vince Velasquez	at DET, at CHC	Don't want to overstate one week, but this is a big test against 2 top-5 offenses on the road
32	Rich Hill	at SEA, DET
33	Chris Tillman	at HOU, at CLE	Had >10% SwStr rate in just 4 games last year; has 5 this year (and two others at 9%); probably more a 3.20ish ERA guy, but this looks like a legit breakout
34	Michael Wacha	CHC, at WAS
35	Julio Teheran	MIL, MIA	Lefties still an issue (.801 OPS), but these 2 teams start a combined 5 lefties
36	Wei-Yin Chen	TB, at ATL	Pitching better than his 4.22 ERA; a couple blah outings inflating the bottom line
37	Jason Hammel	at STL
38	Justin Verlander	PHI	48% of his ER have come in 2 starts; 1.61 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 30% K in last 3 starts
39	Steven Matz	at WAS
40	Matt Harvey	at WAS	Particularly rough outing has Collins apparently considering a skip, which seems like an overreaction
41	Aaron Nola	at DET
42	Aaron Sanchez	at NYY	Early season darling no longer getting love despite continuing to be really good; 57% of season ER have come in two 6 ER starts; TOR's best SP going
43	Marco Estrada	at NYY
44	Tanner Roark	NYM	Has allowed more than 1 ER in four starts and it's been one bad inning in all four; skills even better than 2014 breakout
45	Chris Archer	NYY	Has 4 BBs in 3 of his last 4 and at least 2 BBs in all but one start; hard to feel confident
46	Marcus Stroman	BOS
47	Kenta Maeda	at NYM	Speculation that MLB schedule might be catching up to him, but he denied that
48	Adam Conley	at ATL
49	Rick Porcello	at TOR
50	Joe Ross	STL
51	Carlos Martinez	CHC
52	Nathan Eovaldi	TOR, at TB	Best skills ever marred by worst HR rate ever; inclined to say 17% HR/FB rate has some bad luck in it considerng his GB tendencies (55%) and career 8% HR/FB; buy
53	Ian Kennedy	at MIN, CWS	HR rate still high (1.3 HR/9), but 5 of the 7 have come in two starts; I prefer that to giving HRs almost every single game like last year (at least 1 HR in 77% of his starts)
54	Ervin Santana	KC, at SEA	WHIP and other skills say 3.13 ERA is too good, but still a mid-3.00s kind of guy who stabilizes any fantasy rotation
55	Lance McCullers	BAL
56	Jimmy Nelson	at ATL, CIN	His 1.2 HR/9 was built up in F4 starts (6 of his 8 HRs allowed), he's been strong in L5: 2.76 ERA, 1.13 WHIP
57	Kyle Hendricks	PHI
58	Nate Karns	OAK
59	Yu Darvish	PIT	OK, I jumped the gun last week, but now it looks like he could join the rotation late next week if all goes well this weeknd with Frisco
60	Steven Wright	COL
61	Carlos Rodon	at KC
62	Hisashi Iwakuma	OAK
63	James Shields	at SF
64	Jerad Eickhoff	at CHC	Only 3 ER per start over L4, but only 12 Ks, too; lefties owning him
65	Francisco Liriano	ARI, at TEX	Strong three of last four (1-2 ER), but fourth of those was 4.7 IP/8 ER at CHC; looks to be emerging from his funk
66	Trevor Bauer	BAL
67	J.A. Happ	BOS	Regression all came in one fell swoop (not really how it works, but we knew he wasn't a 2.05 ERA guy); modest AL pool keeps him relevant
68	Sonny Gray	at SEA	First 4 starts: 29% Hard contact, 60% GB; last 5: 37%, 46%; falling behind, leaving the ball up, not getting same # of whiffs; one silver lining is that velocity has held, offering hope that it's not injury
69	Dallas Keuchel	at LAA	Having a hard time finding reasons to believe in a rebound that aren't just "he's the reinging Cy Young"
70	R.A. Dickey	at NYY, BOS	Don't look now, but he has a 2.30 ERA in May, slicing 2.25 runs off of his ERA in the process
71	Jeremy Hellickson	at DET
72	Matt Wisler	MIL	Biggest issue coming into '16 was LHB: .595 OPS vs. them and .597 vs. RHB; still wish for more Ks, but induces a lot of weak contact
73	Junior Guerra	at ATL	Super-filthy splitter carrying him to impressive start to MLB career; has gone 6-plus in all 4 starts
74	Mike Clevinger	at CWS, BAL	Filthy for 5 IP in debut before a bumpy 6th; the 6th is often the biggest hurdle for young arms; one of my favorite mid-tier prospects, I'm buying here
75	Brandon Finnegan	at LAD, at MIL
76	Bartolo Colon	at WAS, LAD
77	Adam Wainwright	CHC, at WAS	3 QS in L4 = turning point? Maaaaybe, still hasn't fanned more than 5 in a single start
78	Mike Fiers	at LAA
79	Wade Miley	MIN
80	Josh Tomlin	at CWS
81	Michael Pineda	at TB	AL's highest HR rate (2.1 HR/9) faces team with 2nd-most HRs hit (60) ... good luck
82	Anibal Sanchez	PHI
83	Collin McHugh	BAL	On a frustarting every-other-start pattern, ER in L5: 5, 2, 4, 1, 4, and 2; upside looks like 3.90-4.20 ERA
84	CC Sabathia	TOR
85	Juan Nicasio	at TEX
85	Scott Kazmir	at NYM	Tough to trust with inconsistency; 5 games with 2-plus HR allowed are an MLB-high, too
86	Dan Straily	at LAD	Still hasn't allowed more than 3 ER in a start; 3 BB in each of L3 starts, though; deep-league buy
87	Rubby De La Rosa	at PIT
88	Edinson Volquez	at MIN, CWS
89	Hector Santiago	at TEX	One of the most frustrating SPs out there with Jekyll and Hyde personality; deep leagues only
90	Jhoulys Chacin	at TEX	Early season swing-and-miss has dissipated: 14% SwStr in F3 starts; 7% in L4
91	Jesse Hahn	DET	Survived one really bad inning in return; not missing enough bats for all-formats viability, but worth watching
92	Matt Moore	at MIA, NYY	Can't figure this guy out, 23% K and 8% BB are career bests, but 1.6 HR/9 is career worst; more trouble than he's worth for now
93	Ross Stripling	CIN
94	Alex Wood	at NYM	Not a huge fan, but can't deny quality of L4: 2.59 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 30 Ks in 24.3 IP
96	Mike Leake	at WAS
97	Patrick Corbin	at PIT	2 outs away from four straight QS in May, but still allowing way too much hard contact (41% is MLB-high)
98	Tyler Duffey	KC
99	Doug Fister	BAL, at LAA
100	Logan Verrett	LAD	Unconfirmed, but he's their swingman and seems like best fit for DH vs. LAD on May 29