The RotoWire 200: Wainwright Drops Out

The RotoWire 200
by Jeff Erickson

This is our first update of the top 200 list. Please note that we will only have comments on players that have status changes. If you want to see the previous player comments, please see the previous article. Once again, this list presumes a 5x5, 12-team mixed league that starts two catchers and does not have an innings-cap. There is a positional scarcity component applied for catchers and a lesser boost for shortstops.

1. Albert Pujols, 1B - Pujols' projection and rank do not change as a result of the contract talks that broke down.
2. Troy Tulowitzki, SS
3. Hanley Ramirez, SS
4. Joey Votto, 1B - Modest boost in Votto's ranking thanks to concerns about Gonzalez and Cabrera.
5. Ryan Braun, OF
6. Carlos Gonzalez, OF
7. Miguel Cabrera, 1B - The current expectation is that Cabrera will not receive any jail time because of his DUI arrest, but this is far from a done deal.
8. Roy Halladay, P
9. Carl Crawford, OF
10. Evan Longoria, 3B
11. Robinson Cano, 2B
12. Adrian Gonzalez, 1B - Slight downgrade here due to his recovery from offseason shoulder injury. He has been cleared to swing a bat already, but he might not hit for power early in the season.
13. David Wright, 3B
14. Alex Rodriguez, 3B - Reported to camp in great shape, and I think that this report is significant. Between that and the reflection of the thin third base pool, I'm moving A-Rod up.
15. Mark Teixeira, 1B
16. Ryan Howard, 1B
17. Ryan Zimmerman, 3B - You might even have to act quicker if you want Zimmerman, because of how third basemen drop off after him.
18. Matt Holliday, OF
19. Josh Hamilton, OF
20. Jose Reyes, SS
21. Prince Fielder, 1B
22. Chase Utley, 2B
23. Jon Lester, P
24. Zack Greinke, P
25. Nelson Cruz, OF
26. Tim Lincecum, P - Modest upgrade for Lincecum.
27. Matt Kemp, OF
28. Kevin Youkilis, 1B
29. Felix Hernandez, P
30. Joe Mauer, C - Taking weekly injections for his knee that had arthroscopic surgery in the offseason.
31. Shin-Soo Choo, OF
32. Jose Bautista, 3B/OF - The Jays indicated their belief that Bautista's breakout was real with the five-year contract they signed him to this spring.
33. Justin Upton, OF
34. Dustin Pedroia, 2B - Pedroia has not had any setbacks with his foot so far this offseason.
35. Buster Posey, C
36. Andrew McCutchen, OF
37. Brian McCann, C
38. Victor Martinez, C
39. Clayton Kershaw, P
40. Adam Dunn, 1B
41. Cliff Lee, P - I added three more wins to Lee's projection, which pushes him up this list.
42. Adrian Beltre, 3B - Suffered a mild calf strain early in spring training.
43. Ian Kinsler, 2B
44. Jacoby Ellsbury, OF
45. Jay Bruce, OF
46. Rickie Weeks, 2B
47. Jason Heyward, OF
48. Derek Jeter, SS
49. Michael Stanton, OF
50. Carlos Santana, C
51. Josh Johnson, P
52. Ubaldo Jimenez, P
53. Jimmy Rollins, SS
54. Cole Hamels, P
55. Hunter Pence, OF
56. CC Sabathia, P - Sabathia lost a decent amount of weight over the offseason.
57. Dan Uggla, 2B
58. Justin Verlander, P
59. Drew Stubbs, OF - Stubbs is my biggest outlier, though I'm not the only one out there that really likes him. If he fulfills his projection, then this is where he'll land, but you won't have to reach this high to get him.
60. Chris Young, OF
61. B.J. Upton, OF
62. David Price, P
63. Alexei Ramirez, SS
64. Jayson Werth, OF
65. Mat Latos, P - Only 12 of his 31 starts were at Petco last year.
66. Kendry Morales, 1B - Might not be ready for Opening Day and might have to start the year as the DH.
67. Billy Butler, 1B
68. Dan Haren, P
69. Jason Bay, OF
70. Alexis Rios, OF
71. Brandon Phillips, 2B
72. Andre Ethier, OF
73. Shane Victorino, OF
74. Stephen Drew, SS
75. Justin Morneau, 1B - Still suffering from some post-concussion symptoms and won't play in the first few spring training games. He might end up being fine, it might be a huge problem - the thing with concussions is that nobody really knows for sure - claiming otherwise is just wish-casting.
76. Shaun Marcum, P
77. Nick Markakis, OF
78. Matt Cain, P
79. Colby Rasmus, OF
80. Pablo Sandoval, 3B
81. Brian Wilson, P - I gave him a slightly more optimistic projection.
82. Geovany Soto, C - Soto got a bump in my rankings and projection after I gave him more playing time.
83. Ichiro Suzuki, OF
84. Mariano Rivera, P
85. Joakim Soria, P
86. Jered Weaver, P
87. Aramis Ramirez, 3B
88. Elvis Andrus, SS
89. Heath Bell, P
90. Carlos Pena, 1B
91. Pedro Alvarez, 3B
92. Max Scherzer, P
93. Francisco Liriano, P - Liriano had shoulder soreness early in spring training but threw a normal bullpen session this week.
94. Delmon Young, OF
95. Corey Hart, OF
96. Carlos Marmol, P - Slight downgrade relative to other closers because of the walks.
97. Paul Konerko, 1B
98. Tommy Hanson, P
99. Nick Swisher, OF - I'm finding mid-draft power to be scarce, and Swisher is pretty reliable in that regard.
100. Neftali Feliz, P - I'm still drafting him as if he's a closer, though that fate hasn't yet been decided.
101. Ben Zobrist, 2B/OF - Might end up at first base in 2011.
102. Matt Wieters, C
103. Michael Young, 3B - Not traded yet, might not be until after this season.
104. Aaron Hill, 2B
105. Roy Oswalt, P
106. Yovani Gallardo, P - Modest upgrade because of the strikeouts, though his WHIP keeps him from joining the elite.
107. Bobby Abreu, OF - Frequently has slipped in the mock drafts that I've done.
108. John Danks, P
109. Kelly Johnson, 2B
110. Adam Jones, OF
111. Vladimir Guerrero, DH - Vlad's numbers shouldn't change much in Baltimore.
112. Brian Roberts, 2B - Missed some workouts this week due to a neck strain, but an x-ray showed no structural damage.
113. Huston Street, P
114. Curtis Granderson, OF
115. Chad Billingsley, P
116. Aubrey Huff, 1B
117. Grady Sizemore, OF - Sizemore is currently ahead of schedule in his recovery from knee surgery.
118. Ricky Romero, P
119. Vernon Wells, OF - Could run more with the Angels, but the change in parks might hurt his power a smidge.
120. David Ortiz, DH
121. Michael Napoli, C - Traded twice in the space of a week. He currently doesn't have a full-time starting job, though eventually that should get worked out.
122. Chris Carpenter, P
123. Carlos Lee, OF
124. Brett Anderson, P
125. Clay Buchholz, P
126. Carlos Quentin, OF
127. Derrek Lee, 1B - Signed with the Orioles. Don't forget his thumb surgery early on in the season.
128. Mark Reynolds, 3B
129. Adam Lind, DH
130. Tim Hudson, P
131. Casey McGehee, 3B - Moving up to reflect how the third base pool is getting drafted so far.
132. Austin Jackson, OF
133. Torii Hunter, OF
134. Carlos Beltran, OF
135. Ted Lilly, P
136. Rafael Furcal, SS
137. Colby Lewis, P
138. Starlin Castro, SS - Modest positional-scarcity bump.
139. Jorge Posada, C
140. Dan Hudson, P
141. Jonathan Broxton, P - Broxton was named the Dodgers' closer heading into spring training.
142. Jonathan Papelbon, P
143. Trevor Cahill, P
144. Kurt Suzuki, C
145. Denard Span, OF
146. Michael Bourn, OF
147. Gaby Sanchez, 1B
148. Juan Pierre, OF
149. Miguel Montero, C
150. Martin Prado, 2B/3B
151. Ryan Dempster, P
152. Angel Pagan, OF
153. Josh Beckett, P
154. Philip Hughes, P
155. J.J. Putz, P
156. Brett Gardner, OF
157. Michael Cuddyer, OF/1B
158. Ike Davis, 1B
159. Javier Vazquez, P
160. John Axford, P
161. Matt Garza, P
162. Francisco Rodriguez, P - Showed up at camp fully healthy after the incident that ended his 2010 season.
163. Jose Tabata, OF
164. Adam LaRoche, 1B
165. Wandy Rodriguez, P
166. Ricky Nolasco, P
167. Alfonso Soriano, OF
168. Howie Kendrick, 2B
169. John Buck, C
170. Ian Desmond, SS
171. Chris Perez, P
172. Chris Coghlan, OF
173. Jonathan Sanchez, P
174. Raul Ibanez, OF
175. Brandon Morrow, P - Ludicrous K/9 last year. If he can consolidate his second-half gains, look out.
176. Neil Walker, 2B
177. Mitch Moreland, 1B - Still projected to start at first after the Beltre signing and the trade for Napoli.
178. J.J. Hardy, SS
179. Andres Torres, OF
180. Gio Gonzalez, P
181. Gordon Beckham, 2B
182. Jose Valverde, P
183. Jeremy Hellickson, P
184. Madison Bumgarner, P
185. Chris Iannetta, C - Going back to the well with him, but he has the job without a real veteran threat behind him.
186. Coco Crisp, OF
187. Ryan Raburn, OF
188. Chone Figgins, 2B
189. Marco Scutaro, SS
190. Miguel Tejada, SS
191. Ryan Franklin, P
192. Anibal Sanchez, P
193. Ervin Santana, P
194. Brandon Lyon, P - Lyon is a nice target if you're waiting on closers.
195. Ian Stewart, 3B
196. Alcides Escobar, SS
197. Jason Kubel, OF - Kubel could lose at-bats with the Twins re-signing Jim Thome.
198. Travis Snider, OF
199. Brad Lidge, P - Moved up to the list after an upgraded projection.
200. A.J. Pierzynski, C

Dropping Out:

- Adam Wainwright, P (43) - Probably will need season-ending Tommy John elbow surgery. He's currently seeking a second opinion.
- Luke Scott, DH (175) - Be careful, in many leagues he'll be DH-only this year. Dropping like a rock in mock drafts where he doesn't have OF-eligibility.
- James Loney, 1B (187) - It's getting late to still hope for a power spike from Loney.
- Cliff Pennington, SS (197) - Starting spring training behind because of his offseason work on his left shoulder.
- Jacob McGee, P (200) - I still like him quite a bit, but he's not the Rays' closer yet and there's a pretty good chance that the team could use a committee.