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FantasyDraft MLB: Thursday Values

Adam Zdroik

Adam writes on sports ranging from NFL and MLB to soccer and college basketball. Outside of writing, he has worked with a professional soccer team, Sporting Kansas City, and in the stats department at ESPN. He is a former Streak for the Cash winner and Michigan State graduate.

PITCHER

Aaron Nola, PHI at SF ($23,200):
I think Nola is safer than Luis Severino ($24,400) so he’s my pick and also $1,000 cheaper. Nola has gone at least six innings in his last 11 starts and has struck out 15 in his last two. He gets a pitcher-friendly park in San Francisco and a team that isn’t batting well with a .303 wOBA against righties since the All-Star break.

Jhoulys Chacin, SD vs. WAS ($12,000): This maybe doesn't look smart from the outside, but the Padres went from underdogs to favorites since the line was released. To help, Chacin is much better at home with a .242 wOBA allowed compared to .371 on the road. If he can reach 20 fantasy points, that’d be enough to warrant using him, and the Nationals have been bad against righties in August with a .286 wOBA.

INFIELD

Joey Gallo, TEX vs. CWS ($10,500):
Gallo was slowing down and then he hit a couple homers earlier in the week. Most of his power comes against righties with a .538 ISO and .444 wOBA since the break. Reynaldo Lopez was fine in his first start of the season going six innings against the Royals, but both runs came via home runs off a lefty bat.

Cesar Hernandez, PHI at SF ($7,600): Hernandez doesn’t have much power, but he brings consistency and that’s enough against Jeff Samardzija. Since the break, Hernandez has a .391 wOBA against righties and Samardzija is much worse against lefties with a .344 wOBA allowed.

Cameron Rupp, PHI at SF ($4,400): This is my super cheap play of the day mainly because Rupp has been great against righties with a .458 wOBA and .447 ISO in his last 42 at-bats. Samardzija is worse against lefties in terms of wOBA and xFIP, but actually has a worse K% (23.0) against righties. Samardzija has also struggled with three earned runs in each of his last three starts.

OUTFIELD

Dexter Fowler, STL at PIT ($9,200):
Fowler is roping with at least 10 fantasy points in six of his last nine games, which shows in a .391 wOBA against righties in his last 65 at-bats. Jameson Taillon has calmed down a bit in his last two starts, but still has a .364 wOBA allowed and 4.41 xFIP against lefties this season.

Adam Frazier, PIT vs. STL ($7,200): The Pirates don’t have many hot bats, but Frazier has a .367 wOBA in his last 72 at-bats against righties. Adam Wainwright has hit a bit of a wall with eight walks and one strikeout in his last two outings. While he’s not allowing many hits, Wainwright hasn’t reached six innings in four of his last six.

Josh Bell, PIT vs. STL ($8,800): Bell is the only other Pirate with better numbers than Frazier against righties since the break with a .378 wOBA in his last 90 at-bats. Along with Wainwright’s recent struggles, he’s worse against lefties with a .344 wOBA allowed and 4.44 xFIP.

UTILITY

Cory Spangenberg, SD vs. WAS ($8,800):
Spangenberg can’t be stopped and Edwin Jackson will soon find that out. Spangenberg has four homers in his last four games to go with a .484 wOBA and .355 ISO in his last 89 at-bats. Jackson is doing a solid job for the Nationals, but still has a 5.08 xFIP against lefties this season.

Matt Carpenter, STL at PIT ($7,200): Kolten Wong ($7,500) was also under consideration on his hot streak, but Carpenter gets the call after having success (two singles) in his last meeting against Taillon earlier this season. Taillon is striking out lefties with a much worse 15.8 K%, which goes well with Carpenter’s 18.2 K% against righties. Carpenter has better overall numbers against righties with a .373 wOBA and .221 ISO.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire.