Justin Verlander, HOU vs. LAA ($52): Verlander has been in superb form the entire second half, not just since his trade to Houston. Only once since July 19 has he gone for less than 26.7 fantasy points, while having won eight of his last 10 starts. He has a 1.29 ERA over his last 42.0 innings, striking out 34.7 percent of the batters he’s faced. He’s hot enough to not consider the Angels as an opponent, but the Angles .317 wOBA, 99 wRC+, and -15.3 wRAA shouldn’t scare anyone away.
Sean Newcomb, ATL vs. PHI ($35): If paying for Verlander, or the D’Backs Zach Greinke, Newcomb looks like a nice compliment, as his strikeout potential gives him tournament upside. He’s not going to work deep into the contest due to his inefficiency, but the 20 strikeouts to seven earned runs allowed over his last 15.1 innings works for his price. The Phillies -29.4 wRAA doesn’t hurt either.
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Buster Posey, SF at LAD ($12): While Dodgers’ starter Rich Hill has been solid at home against opposite-handed bats (.265 wOBA against), Posey counters with a .448 wOBA, 183 wRC+ and 1.109 OPS against lefties on the road. He’s hitting .321 in 15 September games, hitting safely in all but a three-game stretch earlier this week, a mini-slump he seems to have broken out of in the last two games, going 3-for-7.
Joey Votto, CIN vs. BOS ($22): Red Sox starter Rick Porcello has allowed a .382 wOBA to lefties since August 20, a span of six starts, surrendering five homers to them in that stretch. That seems like a lock and load matchup for Votto, who has a .465 wOBA, 190 wRC+.314 ISO and 1.149 OPS against opposite-handed arms at home.
Yoan Moncada, CWS vs. KC ($18): Moncada is surging to the finish, hitting safely in 10 of his last 11 games, tallying 19 hits and three homers in that span. He’s posted a .348 wOBA and .205 ISO against righties in September, and has a chance to tee off on Jason Hammel, who’s allowed 37 hits and 17 earned runs in four September starts, lasting only 21.2 innings.
Travis Shaw, MIL vs. CHC ($15): Cubs’ starter John Lackey has a 5.38 road ERA against 3.89 at home and allows a .368 wOBA to lefties away from Wrigley Field. Shaw counters with a .372 wOBA and 127 wRC+ against righties and has hit safely in five of his last six outings.
Jose Reyes, NYM vs. WAS ($22): Reyes seems to have found a fountain of youth over the season’s second half and is showing no signs of slowing down. He’s got a solid .393 wOBA, 147 wRC+ and .914 OPS in September against righties, while Nats’ starter Edwin Jackson has been awful in September, owning a 12.71 ERA over three starts.
Matt Olson, OAK vs. TEX ($26): Olsen’s tag is insanely steep when you’re paying solely for a long ball, but that seems probable in this spot. Olson has a 45.2 percent fly ball rate at home against righties, with 47.4 percent of those balls leaving the yard. That should play well against Rangers’ starter Nick Martinez’s 40.5 percent fly rate to lefties.
Carlos Gonzalez, COL at SD ($23): It’s very difficult to go against Gonzalez and his white-hot bat over September, as he owns a .682 wOBA, .588 ISO and 1.770 OPS. This matchup against Jordan Lyles, who gives up a.410 wOBA to opposite-handed bats seems like a slam dunk.
Dexter Fowler, STL at PIT ($19): It’s been a tale of two seasons for Pirates’ starter Ivan Nova, who had a 3.12 ERA in the first half but has labored to a 6.22 ERA after the break, where he’s allowing a .399 wOBA to lefties. That suits Fowler well, as he has a .395 wOBA and 146 wRC+ against opposite-handed arms in the same span.