Wednesday’s Fan Duel slate starts early with a 2:10 EDT “all day” slate and an “early only” option as well. Weather has played a factor over the last couple of days and could so again tonight, especially looking at the main slate starting at 7:05 EDT. Luckily, for the most part MLB has been good about calling off games sooner rather than later; just realize that 'later' is still a possibility on any given night.
For those interested, we’ve started an MLB DFS Slack channel for paid RotoWire subscribers. (There is a season-long one as well.) To join those channels, e-mail firstname.lastname@example.org.
Jameson Taillon, PIT vs DET ($8,900): First, it makes a ton of sense to go with Clayton Kershaw ($11,400) at home coming off a bad start against the lowly Marlins. Miami's two best hitters are probably Derek Dietrich and Justin Bour, who are both lefties, putting them at a disadvantage. Taillon is also coming off a poor start but otherwise has looked like he’s ready for a breakout season. The Tigers have few weapons on offense and own the third-lowest wOBA against right-handed pitching on the road with a .258 mark. While it’s a small sample, Taillon has been a better pitcher at home for his career with his wOBA, K rate, ISO and walk rate all improved while pitching in Pittsburgh.
GPP Fade: Trevor Bauer, CLE vs CHI ($9,000): With all of the good starting pitching tonight (Kershaw, Zack Greinke and Jake Arrieta) it comes as a bit of a surprise that Bauer comes in with the highest fantasy points per game (39) of any of them. Granted, it’s only been four starts, but Bauer hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs and has struck out at least six in each outing this season. That being said, he has a daunting task in shutting down the Cubs tonight, who have one of the better offenses in baseball. Chicago also appears to be hot at the plate, scoring 62 runs over their last seven games (8.9 runs per game).
Cheap GPP Consideration: Jake Faria, TB at BAL ($6,600): Faria’s 5.82 ERA along with a 1.56 WHIP will turn most away tonight based on those stats alone. Looking a bit deeper into his limited work this season will show he was lit up twice by the Red Sox (nine earned runs in 5.2 innings) and then put together two stellar outings against the Rangers and Phillies. The Orioles are a great matchup for any pitcher in DFS, as they have the second-highest strikeout rate at 27.1 percent.
Joey Gallo, TEX vs OAK ($3,900): Gallo might be the poster boy for why looking at wOBA over BA is so important. Gallo has a career .202 BA against right-handed pitching, which is a terrible stat. However, given his power, his .359 wOBA against righties isn’t just good, it’s very good. The matchup against Kendall Graveman tonight is a plus one, as he’s given up a .338 wOBA to lefties on the road over his career with the A’s.
Sean Rodriguez, PIT vs DET ($3,000): With a number of southpaws on the mound tonight, there’s a good opportunity to find bats and exploit those matchups. Rodriguez will square off against Matt Boyd who, to his credit, has gotten off to a fantastic start this season with a 1.40 ERA. However, Boyd is giving up a .377 wOBA to right-handed hitters on the road for his career and his 98 percent strand rate with a .132 BABIP are both extreme numbers that are unsustainable. Rodriguez had a .350 wOBA against lefties in 2016, the last season he had significant plate appearances against them.
Daniel Robertson, TB at BAL ($3,100): Whether he’s tipping pitches or just a broken man at this point, there’s a legitimate chance Alex Cobb is in trouble. He’s given up 12 earned runs in the small sample of two starts, leading to a 15.43 ERA, and his choice of home ballparks this season won’t help his numbers. Robertson has been hitting in a good RBI spot in the middle of the order and has a .394 wOBA against righties to start this season. The key to his success has been a better eye at the plate; his BB rate is up over seven percent while his K rate is down over four percent.
Paul DeJong, STL vs NYM ($4,300): DeJong makes for an interesting contrarian play tonight given how high his price is. He comes into the game on a hot streak with home runs Sunday and Monday and gets a good matchup against Steven Matz. DeJong in his short career has a .365 wOBA against lefties, while Matz has struggled against right-handed hitters since the beginning of the 2017 season with an wOBA of over .360 against them.
Matt Joyce, OAK at TEX, ($2,800): Joyce should return to the lineup tonight after getting a couple of starts off with the Rangers putting two lefties on the mound to start the series. Joyce will get a boost in park factors in Arlington and get a decent matchup against Doug Fister. After a .375 wOBA against right-handed pitchers in 2016, he followed that up with a .343 mark last season and is back to a .375 mark to start 2018.
Steve Pearce, TOR vs BOS ($3,100): Pearce is a viable option any time he’s facing a lefty, which is the case tonight against Eduardo Rodriguez. Pearce has a .427 wOBA this season against southpaws and his career .361 wOBA against them shows this success isn’t fluky. Look for him to be atop of the Jays lineup tonight and be a chalky play in cash games.
Marcell Ozuna, STL vs NYM ($3,700): Ozuna has gotten off to a quiet start with his new team, but his past success against lefties shouldn’t be forgotten. He has a career .352 wOBA against that handedness and his 11 RBI shows he’s hitting in a good spot in the Cardinals lineup. The case against Matz has already been made, making Ozuna a strong play tonight.