2025-26 Fantasy Basketball Breakouts: Draft-Day Steals to Target

See fantasy basketball breakouts who could deliver in 2025-26. Jeremy Schneider analyzes five NBA fantasy targets, supported by RotoWire's NBA projections.

September 30, 2025

2025-26 Fantasy Basketball Breakouts: Draft-Day Steals to Target

By:

Jeremy Schneider

September 30, 2025

The path to a championship in NBA Fantasy often runs right through the breakout stars -- players who significantly outperform their fantasy basketball ADP. While veterans like Giannis Antetokounmpo, Nikola Jokic, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander provide a safe floor, it's the up-and-coming players ready for bigger roles who offer the most transformative upside. Based on NBA projections, roster openings, and talent trajectory, here are five elite NBA breakout candidates ready to launch.

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Fantasy Basketball Breakouts

C Alex Sarr, Wizards

Sarr enters 2025-26 as one of the league's most popular breakout picks, and the excitement is warranted. The 7-foot Frenchman, taken No. 2 overall in the 2024 NBA Draft, showed promise as a rookie but lacked consistency. He averaged 13.0 points, 6.5 rebounds, 2.4 assists and 1.5 blocks across 67 regular-season starts, shooting 39.4 percent from the field and 30.8 percent from deep in 27.1 minutes per game. His scoring ticked up late in the year, climbing to 15.3 points per game over his final 24 contests once March arrived.

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Fantasy Basketball Breakouts

C Alex Sarr, Wizards

At just 20 years old, Sarr already has the size, mobility and defensive instincts to anchor a frontcourt. The next step is diversifying his offensive repertoire and adding strength to his game. Washington's roster construction sets the stage for that leap. Veterans CJ McCollum and Khris Middleton bring experienced scoring, but with no ball-dominant star in the lineup, Sarr should see increased usage and heavier minutes. A calf injury suffered during EuroBasket will delay his start to training camp, but it isn't expected to be a long-term concern. If his efficiency improves alongside natural development, the expectation that his workload climbs north of 30 minutes per night could accelerate his path to stardom. All told, the pieces are there for a true sophomore breakout, with Sarr positioned as a potential cornerstone for the Wizards' future.

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F Matas Buzelis, Bulls

Another member of the 2024 NBA Draft class, Buzelis finished his rookie season on an upward trajectory, positioning himself as one of the league's most intriguing breakout candidates for 2025-26. The G League Ignite product had a quiet start, averaging 5.3 points and 2.8 rebounds on 39.8 percent shooting in just 13.3 minutes across his first 47 contests. But when the calendar flipped to February, his confidence and workload grew. Over his final 33 regular-season games, he averaged 13.3 points, 4.4 rebounds and 1.1 blocks in 26.9 minutes per night, while shooting an efficient 49.1 percent from the field and 36.7 percent from three. By season's end, Buzelis had logged 80 regular-season appearances (31 starts), finishing with averages of 8.6 points, 3.5 rebounds and 1.0 assists in 18.9 minutes.

Set to turn 21 before the season tips off, he's already carved out a reputation as a versatile two-way piece: able to score from multiple levels, guard on the perimeter, and protect the rim at a high rate, ranking in the 93rd percentile for shot-block percentage (4.3%). Chicago's roster does have solid contributors in Josh Giddey, Coby White and Nikola Vucevic, which means touches won't always be plentiful. Regardless, Buzelis has earned his way into significant minutes, and his ability to contribute across the board gives him a pathway to a bigger role. If his minutes settle in the 25-to-30 range or beyond, as they did late last season, Buzelis has every opportunity to grow from a promising rookie into a breakout sophomore star.

F Ausar Thompson, Pistons

Thompson didn't take a major leap as a sophomore, but year three sets up as a true breakout opportunity. His rookie season was cut short by a blood clot, an issue that lingered into last year and sidelined him for the Pistons' first 18 games. Once cleared, the 2023 first-round pick started 48 of 59 regular-season appearances, averaging 10.1 points, 5.1 rebounds, 2.3 assists and 1.7 steals in 22.5 minutes per contest on 53.5 percent shooting. The workload dipped slightly from his rookie year, but still marked solid production for a 21-year-old working back from a major health scare.

Offensively, Thompson has room to grow as both a shooter and playmaker. Even without major strides on that end, he makes his mark with elite defense and athleticism, disrupting passing lanes and protecting the rim. His combination of size and quickness allows him to rack up steals and blocks in bunches, and more minutes should only enhance his impact. With a full, healthy offseason behind him, Thompson carries both a high floor and a high ceiling. At worst, he's already an elite defensive stopper. But if his offensive game progresses even modestly, his ceiling rises toward legitimate two-way stardom. With his tools, motor and expected uptick in minutes, year three offers Thompson a real chance to move from promising prospect to a centerpiece in Detroit.

F Toumani Camara, Trail Blazers

Camara has made impressive strides since being drafted in the second round of the 2023 NBA Draft, establishing himself as a reliable contributor for the Trail Blazers. In his sophomore season last year, he started all 78 of his regular-season appearances, averaging 11.3 points, 5.8 rebounds, 2.2 assists and 1.5 steals in 32.7 minutes per game. He also took a step forward as a shooter, improving his three-point percentage to 37.5 after hitting 33.7 percent as a rookie. Camara finished the year on a high note, averaging 14.3 points, 5.2 rebounds, 2.6 assists and 1.5 steals over his final 12 games, while shooting 47.4 percent from the field and 39.7 percent from deep.

Portland's season was turbulent, but Camara remained steady. With Scoot Henderson (hamstring) sidelined to open the upcoming campaign, Camara could see an expanded offensive role, giving him more chances to get shots up and find rhythm from beyond the arc. Even if his usage doesn't rise dramatically, his consistent minutes, defensive activity and steady production give him a high floor. But if his involvement increases while he continues his upward trajectory, Camara could be primed for a breakout as a versatile, two-way contributor capable of filling the box score across categories.

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G/F Bennedict Mathurin, Pacers

Mathurin has steadily delivered across his first three seasons since being drafted No. 6 overall in 2022, but this year could mark his true breakout. He played in 72 regular-season games (49 starts) last season and averaged 16.1 points, 5.3 rebounds and 1.9 assists in 29.8 minutes while shooting 45.8 percent from the field and 34.0 percent from deep. His postseason run was uneven — he scored 20-plus points five times, including a double-double in Game 7 of the Finals, but also had 12 games in single digits.

The Pacers enter 2025-26 with much of their roster intact, but two massive changes create opportunity: Tyrese Haliburton (Achilles) is sidelined for the season, and longtime anchor Myles Turner is now in Milwaukee. Those losses may hurt Indiana's title hopes, but they elevate Mathurin's role in the offense. With Pascal Siakam still the primary option, the 23-year-old wing is positioned to emerge as the No. 2 scorer ahead of Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith. He should also log 30-plus minutes per night for the first time in his career, boosting production simply by volume. While he's not an elite shooter or much of a playmaker, Mathurin has the tools and opportunity for a major scoring jump. That kind of leap wouldn't just help fill the Pacers' void — it would mark his arrival as one of the league's rising young wings.

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