FanDuel NBA: Friday Value Plays

FanDuel NBA: Friday Value Plays

This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.

We're set for Game 6 of what has become an increasingly hard-fought series between the Grizzlies and Timberwolves. The last two games have been decided by a total of three points, and Game 4 finished with an appealing total of 237 points. There are explosive players on either side, and we could well be set for another buzzer-to-buzzer showdown with Minnesota facing elimination. 

With just one game on the ledger, we're dealing with FanDuel's single-game contest rosters, which are comprised as follows: 

  • MVP- (Garners points at 2x the normal rate)
  • STAR- (Garners points at 1.5x the normal rate)
  • PRO- (Garners points at 1.2x the normal rate)
  • Two Utility spots- (Garner points at normal rate) 

With the valuation also being different than in conventional FanDuel contests on multi-game slates and top players inevitably headed for heavy rostering, there are definitely strategic elements particular to single-game lineups. Finding key value plays for the two utility spots is undoubtedly critical, as it enables you to fill out the multiplier spots with some of the top projected producers. 

Slate Overview

Memphis Grizzlies (-1.5) at Minnesota Timberwolves (Projected total: 229.0 points): 

After the aforementioned 119-118 track meet in Game 4, defense was a little sharper on both sides on Tuesday, although 220 points were still scored. There are no big-name injuries on either side going into tonight – Steven Adams is projected to be out for the Grizzlies, but has not been an offensive factor when on the floor – so each team should be capable of helping create an environment highly conducive for DFS. 

Positional Breakdown

FanDuel single-game rosters don't have traditional positions that match those on a starting five, so we'll instead break down some candidates for the top three multiplier positions: 

MVP (2x): Ja Morant ($15,500) and Karl-Anthony Towns ($15,000) would have to be labeled as the top two candidates for this multiplier spot based on their undeniable upside, though it bears noting each has endured some struggles during the series. 

Morant is shooting 34.0 percent -- including 22.2 from behind the arc -- over the last three games. But even while once again shooting less than 50.0 percent, Morant exploded for 63.1 FD points in Game 5 and topped it off by scoring the winning bucket, and he hasn't posted less than 44.1 in any game so far. 

Meanwhile, Towns got into serious foul trouble in Games 2 and 3, but bounced back to produce 51.3 and 51.9 FD points on the strength of consecutive double-doubles. 

STAR (1.5x): Whichever of the two mega-stars mentioned above doesn't make your MVP spot is naturally the prime candidate here, but a case could also reasonably be made for Desmond Bane ($13,500), Anthony Edwards ($12,500) or D'Angelo Russell ($11,500). 

Bane is even a borderline MVP candidate based on his performances the last three games, when he's averaged 44.0 FD points on the strength of 28.3 points, 4.0 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 1.7 blocks and 1.3 steals per game while shooting 49.1 percent, including 51.4 from three-point range. 

Edwards has recorded tallies of 54.4 and 46.8 FD points in this series, but he dipped to 22.2 in Game 5 largely due to picking up five fouls across 35 minutes and producing a very scoring-heavy stat line. However, he's also shot 46.5 percent, including 40.4 from deep, during the first five games overall.

Russell has only eclipsed 28.4 FD points once this series, and the biggest concern is that he's shot just 32.3 percent overall across the five games. Nevertheless, he clearly boasts the potential to record over 40 FD points on any given night, keeping him in play for the 1.5x slot. 

PRO (1.2x): Whichever of the trio mentioned for the STAR position is certainly a consideration for this spot, as are Brandon Clarke ($12,000) and Patrick Beverley ($10,500)

Clarke dropped a series-best 45.5 FD points in Game 5 with Steven Adams logging a DNP-CD and Jaren Jackson fouling out after 23 minutes. Both circumstances are teed up to potentially be replicated Friday with Adams expected to sit and Jackson having accumulated five or more fouls in four of the first five games this series. 

Beverley has scored over 30 FD points in three of the first five and has the ability to check off every box on the stat sheet. 

Injury Situations to Monitor 

NOTE: Injury reporting is especially fluid in the NBA, where the status of multiple players can change during the course of a day. Therefore, although the following is a foundation for the latest injury report as of the time the article is written (usually late morning Eastern time), check back throughout the course of the day with RotoWire for the latest news regarding the status of all players on that night's slate. 

Steven Adams, MEM (COVID-19 protocols)/ Status: OUT 

Adams is expected to sit out Friday, which would presumably afford Xavier Tillman a start at center. 

Other notable injuries:

Ziaire Williams, MEM (knee)/ Status: DOUBTFUL 

Elite Players

The two healthy highest-salaried players on the slate are Ja Morant ($15,500) and Karl-Anthony Towns ($15,000). As already detailed, each has already produced multiple elite FD-point tallies during the series, and each should see very heavy usage once again Friday. 

Expected Chalk

With only one game on the ledger, the likes of Desmond Bane ($13,500), Anthony Edwards ($12,500) and Brandon Clarke ($12,000) should also be very popular. 

Key Values   

Note: On a multi-game slate, I typically try to highlight players that would be considered under-the-radar plays in this section. Naturally, with such a limited player pool, there will be very few low-rostered players who are likely to also be viable from a DFS perspective, so I'll instead focus on two of the best candidates to provide a strong return relative to salary for the two Utility spots in single-game lineups: 

Jaren Jackson, MEM ($10,000) 

As already alluded to, Jackson has been a virtual lock to rack up fouls at a fairly brisk clip. The big man has gone on to average a modest 22.6 minutes over the first five games, but he's still averaging 26.6 FD points per game during that span. Jackson is also boasting a 27.2 percent usage rate and averages 46.0 FD points per 36 minutes with Adams off the floor since the start of the regular season, making him worthy of a utility spot in tournaments even if he's unlikely to hit 25 minutes. 

Jarred Vanderbilt, MIN ($9,500) 

Vanderbilt started off the series with consecutive single-digit FD-point tallies, but he's since scored 22 to 36.6 FD points over the next three matchups. He's also managed double-digit scoring and rebounding efforts twice apiece over that span. And with Minnesota trying to avoid elimination, Vanderbilt could be involved plenty as both a complementary source of offense and contributor on the glass.   

Other value plays to consider: Dillon Brooks, MEM ($9,000)

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Juan Carlos Blanco plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: DraftKings: jcblanco22, FanDuel: jc_blanco22, DraftPot: jc_blanco22, FantasyDraft: jc_blanco22, OwnThePlay: jcblanco22.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Juan Carlos Blanco
Winner of the FSWA 2016 Newcomer of the Year Award, Juan Carlos Blanco has been playing fantasy sports for over 20 years and covers NBA, MLB, NFL, CFL and Arena Football for Rotowire.com, including serving as the beat writer for teams in multiple sports. He has previously written for KFFL.com and remains an avid season-long and daily fantasy player in multiple sports as well.
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