FanDuel NBA: Sunday Value Plays

FanDuel NBA: Sunday Value Plays

This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.

We have a very interesting five-game Sunday evening slate on tap, as some of the most defensively vulnerable teams in the NBA will be in action. That helps explain the fact four of the game have totals well north of 220 points, which naturally bodes well for DFS purposes. The injury report is also refreshingly light on shorter-term absences, so there will be a solid player pool to operate with.

Slate Overview

Los Angeles Clippers (-6.5) at Houston Rockets (O/U: 228.5 points)

Detroit Pistons at Charlotte Hornets (-10) (O/U: 226.5 points)

Dallas Mavericks at Golden State Warriors (-4) (O/U: 219.0 points)

Denver Nuggets (-8) at Portland Trail Blazers (O/U: 230.5 points)

New Orleans Pelicans at Los Angeles Lakers (-2) (O/U: 225.5 points)

There are only two teams on the second of a back-to-back set Sunday, with the Pistons and Nuggets fitting that description. However, the Rockets, Hornets, Trail Blazers, Pelicans and Lakers typically play porous defense irrespective of how rested they are, and all five are in action.

On paper, the Mavs-Warriors clash is naturally the marquee matchup. Nevertheless, the four remaining games could also be highly competitive regardless of point spreads. Even the one with the largest projected line - Pistons-Hornets - could be closer than expected despite Charlotte's two blowout wins over Detroit earlier in the season considering the latter's most recent two victories coming against the Celtics and Cavs.

Injury Situations to Monitor  

NOTE: Injury reporting is especially fluid in the NBA, where the status of multiple players can change during the course of a day. Therefore, although the following is a foundation for the latest injury report as of the time the article is written, check back throughout the course of the day with RotoWire for the latest news regarding the status of all players on that night's slate, including those carrying injury designations that aren't listed in this section.

Anthony Davis, LAL (foot): OUT

With Davis out, Trevor Ariza and Carmelo Anthony should see the majority of minutes at power forward while LeBron James' usage rate should remain especially elevated.

Jusuf Nurkic, POR (foot): OUT

In Nurkic's absence, Drew Eubanks and Trendon Watford should handle center duties for Portland.

Kevin Porter, HOU (ankle): QUESTIONABLE

If Porter were to sit, Dennis Schroder should draw a start at point guard.

Klay Thompson, GSW (illness): QUESTIONABLE

If Thompson can't go, Jordan Poole should move into the first unit at shooting guard.

Other notable injuries:

Zion Williamson, NOP (foot): OUT

Damian Lillard, POR (abdominal): OUT

Norman Powell, LAC (foot): OUT

Justise Winslow, POR (Achilles): QUESTIONABLE

Paul George, LAC (elbow): OUT

Draymond Green, GSW (back): OUT

Gordon Hayward, CHA (ankle): OUT

Elite Players

We have three players with five-figure salaries on Sunday's slate – Nikola Jokic ($11,700), Luka Doncic ($11,100) and LeBron James ($10,500).

Jokic recorded yet another triple-double Saturday night that led to 44.5 FD points. He's also averaged over 45 FD points in two games against Portland and won't have to face Jusuf Nurkic (foot).

Doncic racked up 46.6 FD points in 35 minutes versus the Jazz on Friday and has already recorded one tally of 46.4 FD points versus the Warriors this season.

James now sports a 32.8 percent usage rate and is averaging 54.3 FD points per 36 minutes without Anthony Davis on the floor this year. He also averaged 54.2 FD points in the last seven appearances before the All-Star Game, but dipped to 38.7 on Friday against the Clippers due to a poor shooting night.

Expected Chalk

Other likely chalk plays include:

Stephen Curry, GSW ($9,200)

Curry may take the floor without Thompson next to him in the backcourt. And although he's only 12-for-40 from the field in two games against Dallas this season, he should remain very popular on such a small slate.

LaMelo Ball, CHA ($8,600)

Ball only registered 25 FD points in his first post-All-Star-break game Friday, but he's flashed a ceiling well north of 60 this season - including a 65 as recently as Feb. 11 against the same Pistons side he'll face Sunday.

CJ McCollum, NOP ($8,600)

McCollum is averaging 48.4 FD points and shooting 57.5 percent - with 47.2 percent from distance - in his last five games, which should keep very popular in a highly favorable matchup against the Lakers.

Brandon Ingram, NOP ($7,200)

Ingram impressively dropped 43.5 FD points in 34 minutes against the Suns on Friday and should have a bit of extra motivation against his old squad. His salary is also particularly modest relative to other points this season.

Key Values 

Terance Mann, LAC at HOU ($6,000)

Mann has been a primary beneficiary of the injuries to Powell and George, averaging 33.7 FD points while shooting 53.1 percent across his last eight games. The two performances he contributed around the All-Star break – 32.1 FD against these same Rockets on Feb. 17 and 46.0 FD versus the Lakers on Friday – offer a glimpse at his ceiling. The rematch versus Houston offers another opportunity for a strong return on what is still a modest investment, as the Rockets have allowed the fourth-highest offensive efficiency to two-guards (23.3 percent) and the second-most FD points per game (42.8) to the position.

P.J. Washington, CHA vs. DET ($5,300)

Washington has made very good use of his three consecutive starting opportunities, averaging 33.6 FD points on the strength of 10.3 points, 9.0 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 2.3 steals and 1.3 blocks across 36 minutes. His offensive efficiency has been poor to say the least shooting just 38.7 percent during that sample, but Detroit - which has already conceded tallies of 27.6 and 28.5 FD points to Washington this season - is vulnerable enough defensively in non-scoring categories to afford him a chance to still offer a strong return. The Pistons are allowing the fourth-most rebounds (55.8) and fifth-most blocks (5.2) per game while also yielding an elevated 47.2 FD points per game to fours.

Robert Covington, LAC at HOU ($5,000)

Covington is set to continue in an expanded role and offered a glimpse of what he might be capable of under such circumstances by racking up 36.4 FD points in only 20 minutes against the Lakers on Friday. His ability to supplement scoring with strong contributions in rebounds, steals and blocks will put him in prime position to deliver Sunday as Houston is ranked in the bottom half of the league in rebounds per game allowed (53.4) and yields the third-most blocks (5.8) and most steals (9.7) per game. What's more, the Rockets are surrendering an NBA-high 29.2 percent offensive efficiency to power forwards 49.4 percent efficiency to second-unit players.

ALSO CONSIDER: Montrezl Harrell, CHA vs. DET ($6,700); Isaiah Stewart, DET at CHA ($5,200)

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Juan Carlos Blanco plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: DraftKings: jcblanco22, FanDuel: jc_blanco22, DraftPot: jc_blanco22, FantasyDraft: jc_blanco22, OwnThePlay: jcblanco22.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Juan Carlos Blanco
Winner of the FSWA 2016 Newcomer of the Year Award, Juan Carlos Blanco has been playing fantasy sports for over 20 years and covers NBA, MLB, NFL, CFL and Arena Football for Rotowire.com, including serving as the beat writer for teams in multiple sports. He has previously written for KFFL.com and remains an avid season-long and daily fantasy player in multiple sports as well.
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