FanDuel NBA: Sunday Value Plays

FanDuel NBA: Sunday Value Plays

This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.

We have a second consecutive four-game playoff slate Sunday, one that holds the potential for a pair of lopsided outcomes. Projected totals aren't overly high, and it bears noting two of the highest are attached to games that carry double-digit spreads.

Slate Overview

Atlanta Hawks at Miami Heat (-6.5) (O/U: 219.0 points)

Brooklyn Nets at Boston Celtics (-4) (O/U: 224.5 points)

Chicago Bulls at Milwaukee Bucks (-10) (O/U: 229.0 points)

New Orleans Pelicans at Phoenix Suns (-10) (O/U: 224.5 points)

The Hawks-Heat series could ultimately turn out to be very competitive, but Game 1 could particularly be a challenge for Atlanta considering they just played a wire-to-wire affair Friday night and will also be adjusting to playing without Clint Capela (knee). Meanwhile, the Heat's regulars have essentially been off for nine days. Nets-Celtics could well be the most competitive of the day, and one of the best of the first round in either conference as long as star players steer clear of injuries.

The two latter matchups are the ones that carry the possibility of some garbage time if the favorites play to their full potential. Both the Bucks and Suns starters have been off over a week, so there could be some rustiness and potentially flat play early on. However, Milwaukee swept Chicago during the four-game regular-season series while the Pelicans have a big rest disadvantage against Phoenix and lost three of four to the Suns in the regular season as well.

Injury Situations to Monitor  

NOTE: Injury reporting is especially fluid in the NBA, where the status of multiple players can change during the course of a day. Therefore, although the following is a foundation for the latest injury report as of the time the article is written, check back throughout the course of the day with RotoWire for the latest news regarding the status of all players on that night's slate, including those carrying injury designations that aren't listed in this section.

Clint Capela, ATL (knee): OUT

Capela's absence means Onyeka Okongwu should draw the start at center and the usage of the remaining members of the starting five should be due for a bump.

Tyler Herro, MIA (knee): PROBABLE

Herro's injury designation is a carryover from the regular-season finale, so he should be available to fill his usual high-volume role off the bench.

John Collins, ATL (finger/foot): QUESTIONABLE

Collins reportedly has a legitimate chance to return from his month-plus absence Sunday, and he would immediately step into a likely even bigger role than usual with Capela out. However, Collins could also be on a minutes limit, so Danilo Gallinari may still receive plenty of minutes at power forward. 

Other notable injuries:

Ben Simmons, BKN (back/conditioning): OUT

Zion Williamson, NOP (foot): OUT

Robert Williams, BOS (knee): OUT

Elite Players

We have four players with five-figure salaries on Sunday's slate – Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,500), Kevin Durant ($11,300), Trae Young ($10,300) and Kyrie Irving ($10,100).

Giannis has produced three tallies of at least 54.9 FD points in three of four games against the Bulls this season, and has had plenty of time to rest the knee issue that bothered him in the final days of the regular season. The Bulls-Bucks game does carry a double-digit spread for Milwaukee, but Giannis should still see close to a normal workload.

Durant scored 53 and 61.5 FD points in the Nets' last two games and 58.2 in his most recent game against the Celtics back on March 6. He also shot 54.1 percent against Boston in two outings.

Young just logged 40 minutes in the play-in victory over the Cavaliers on Friday and has a tough matchup against the Heat, who he shot just 43.9 percent against in four games this season.

Irving dropped over 50 FD points in the Nets' most recent two games and managed 38.8 over 37 minutes against Boston in his one encounter with the Celtics this past regular season.

Expected Chalk

Other likely chalk plays include:

Jayson Tatum, BOS ($9,500)

Tatum is well-rested and produced at least 40 FD points in each of his last six regular-season games while also posting 62.5 against the Nets in his most recent matchup against Brooklyn.

Devin Booker, PHO ($9,000)

Booker put up 27.0 points, 6.3 rebounds and 5.0 assists in four games against the Pelicans this season and should naturally be in plenty of lineups on the small slate.

Jimmy Butler, MIA ($8,500)

Butler was the Heat's leading scorer during the regular season and boasts a tally of 48.6 FD points in one of his three meetings against the Hawks this season.

DeMar DeRozan, CHI ($8,400)

DeRozan is coming off a career-best scoring campaign and last played April 8, so he should be well rested against a Bucks squad he scored over 40 FD points against twice this season. 

Brandon Ingram, NOP ($8,200)

Ingram was red hot over the Pelicans' two play-in games, averaging 28.5 points on 62.5 percent shooting. The talented wing also registered over 40 FD points across two games versus the Suns this past season.

Key Values 

Marcus Smart, BOS vs. BKN ($6,200)

Smart scored 29.1 to 43.6 FD points in his four games against the Nets during the regular season while shooting 50.0 percent overall and from three-point range. He's also averaging 32.8 FD points per 36 minutes without Robert Williams (knee) on the floor, and Brooklyn finished the regular season surrendering the third-most FD points per game to point guards across the last 15 games (52.0). That included the second-most steals per game given up to ones in that span (2.7), while Smart averaged 1.7 steals this year.  

Brook Lopez, MIL vs. CHI ($5,300)

Lopez's minutes have some uncertainty attached to them given Bobby Portis's presence, but the veteran big man did work back to a normal workload by the end of the regular season after missing extensive time with a back injury. One silver lining of Lopez's long absence is that his body is a lot more rested at this time than it otherwise would have been, and that could pay some nice dividends in Game 1. The Bulls conceded 50.4 FD points to Lopez on April 5 and finished the regular season ranked No. 18 in offensive efficiency allowed to centers (32.5 percent) while also yielding 53.5 FD points per game to the position in the last 15 outings.

Daniel Theis, BOS vs. BKN ($4,100)

Theis should be handling plenty of minutes at center in the ongoing absence of Robert Williams (knee), making his salary especially appealing. He's made good use of recent starting opportunities, having recorded 22.7 to 35 FD points in five of them and averaging a solid 28.4 minutes over his last seven. Theis can offer solid contributions in points, rebounds and assists, and anything above 20 FD points will represent a stellar return on investment at his salary.

ALSO CONSIDER: Onyeka Okongwu, ATL at MIA ($5,800); Danilo Gallinari, ATL at MIA ($5,000)

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Juan Carlos Blanco plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: DraftKings: jcblanco22, FanDuel: jc_blanco22, DraftPot: jc_blanco22, FantasyDraft: jc_blanco22, OwnThePlay: jcblanco22.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Juan Carlos Blanco
Winner of the FSWA 2016 Newcomer of the Year Award, Juan Carlos Blanco has been playing fantasy sports for over 20 years and covers NBA, MLB, NFL, CFL and Arena Football for Rotowire.com, including serving as the beat writer for teams in multiple sports. He has previously written for KFFL.com and remains an avid season-long and daily fantasy player in multiple sports as well.
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