FanDuel NBA: Sunday Value Plays

FanDuel NBA: Sunday Value Plays

This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.

Sunday brings another four-game quarter-final round slate, and there's even one potential series-ending clash with the Warriors-Nuggets. The totals are relatively subdued, but the spreads are encouragingly narrow. There are some big names on the injury report, yet that's also resulting in some very appealing values.

Slate Overview

Milwaukee Bucks (-4.5) at Chicago Bulls (O/U: 218.5 points)

Golden State Warriors (-4.5) at Denver Nuggets (O/U: 225.0 points)

Miami Heat (-2) at Atlanta Hawks (O/U: 221.0 points)

Phoenix Suns (-2.5) at New Orleans Pelicans (O/U: 214.5 points)

The Bucks-Bulls matinee should make for another interesting installment between the two Central Division rivals. Chicago has largely been neutralized offensively over the first three games, so the best DFS plays may once again be on the Milwaukee side. Warriors-Nuggets could result in another big point total for Golden State if the first three games are any indication.

The Heat-Hawks battle offers the potential to be the most competitive, as Miami may be down Kyle Lowry due to a hamstring injury and Bam Adebayo continues to deal with a quadriceps issue. Finally, the Suns-Pelicans nightcap may also generate a strong DFS environment, as the first three have been decided by 11 points or fewer and there are several explosive players on both teams.

Injury Situations to Monitor  

NOTE: Injury reporting is especially fluid in the NBA, where the status of multiple players can change during the course of a day. Therefore, although the following is a foundation for the latest injury report as of the time the article is written, check back throughout the course of the day with RotoWire for the latest news regarding the status of all players on that night's slate, including those carrying injury designations that aren't listed in this section.

Devin Booker, PHO (hamstring): OUT

In Booker's absence, Cameron Johnson may keep his spot in the starting five for a second straight game.

Khris Middleton, MIL (knee): OUT

Without Middleton, Bobby Portis should remain in the starting five while Pat Connaughton and Grayson Allen should also gain significant roles off the bench.

Clint Capela, ATL (knee): OUT

Capela's ongoing absence means Onyeka Okongwu should draw another start at center and the usage of the remaining members of the starting five should be due for a boost. 

Bam Adebayo, MIA (quadriceps): QUESTIONABLE

If Adebayo were to sit, Dewayne Dedmon should be in for a start while Omer Yurtseven could also log extra minutes.

Kyle Lowry, MIA (hamstring): QUESTIONABLE

If Lowry can't go, Gabe Vincent (toe) and Duncan Robinson could see an increase in their roles.

Other notable injuries:

Zion Williamson, NOP (foot): OUT

P.J. Tucker, MIA (calf): QUESTIONABLE

Jamal Murray, DEN (knee): OUT

Michael Porter, DEN (back): OUT

Elite Players

We have three players with five-figure salaries on Sunday's slate – Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,700), Nikola Jokic ($11,400) and Chris Paul ($10,200).

Antetokounmpo scored 51.7 and 71.4 FD points in the first two games of the series and posted 38.9 in only 29 minutes during the Game 3 blowout win.  

Jokic scored over 50 FD points in the first two games and then exploded for 70.1 in Game 3. With the Nuggets' backs against the wall, he should be highly aggressive in Game 4.

Paul went off for 56.8 FD points across 39 minutes in Game 3 with Devin Booker (hamstring) and generated 63.4 and 42.2 FD points during the first two games.

Expected Chalk

Other likely chalk plays include:

Jimmy Butler, MIA ($9,600)

Butler has posted 64.5 and 51 FD points in the last two games and sports a 26.6 percent usage rate and an average of 44.7 FD points per 36 minutes with Lowry off the floor.

Stephen Curry, GSW ($9,200)

Curry continues to come off the bench, but he's still managed 47.6 and 35.6 FD points from the last two games while notably logging 30 minutes in Game 3.

DeMar DeRozan, Bulls ($9,200)

DeRozan scored just 23 FD points in 32 minutes in the Game 3 blowout loss, but his tally of 62.4 in Game 2 should ensure he's in plenty of lineups Sunday.

Brandon Ingram, NOP ($9,100)

Ingram bounced back from a modest Game 1 performance to produce 65.7 and 46.4 FD points in the last two outings.

Trae Young, ATL ($8,600)

Young has upped his FD-point totals in each game this series, topping out at 40.8 in the last-second Game 3 victory.

Other likely chalk plays: CJ McCollum, NOP ($8,800); Deandre Ayton, PHO ($8,500)

Key Values 

Bobby Portis, MIL at CHI ($6,200)

Portis moved into the starting lineup at power forward as part of the domino effect of Khris Middleton's absence in Game 3 and did not disappoint, generating 36.2 FD points on the strength of an 18-point, 16-rebound double-double. He also provided 33.4 in the first game and is averaging 38.0 FD points per 36 minutes with Middleton off the floor since the start of the regular season. The Bulls have been vulnerable to power forwards all season, having given up the fifth-highest offensive efficiency to the position (28.1 percent).

Tyler Herro, MIA at ATL ($5,900)

Herro popped off for 38.4 FD points over 33 minutes in Game 3 and has eclipsed 20 for every game this series. The sharpshooter could be heavily involved again in Game 4, especially if Lowry sits with his hamstring issue. Herro boasts a 29.5 percent usage rate and averages 36.6 FD points per 36 minutes with Lowry off the floor, and the Hawks are conceding the third-highest offensive efficiency to two-guards since the start of the regular season (23.5 percent), along with 3.6 made threes per game and 39.1 percent three-point shooting to the position.

Aaron Gordon, DEN vs. GSW ($5,100)

Gordon's offensive contributions can certainly fluctuate, but he'll likely be aggressive Sunday with the Nuggets facing elimination. He's coming off having scored 39.4 FD points in 34 minutes in Game 3, and along with Will Barton, he may be Denver's best hope to provide Nikola Jokic some much-needed offensive help. It's also worth noting Gordon has been very effective at Ball Arena all season, averaging 15.2 points, 5.9 rebounds and 2.7 assists while shooting 51.1 percent, including 38.6 percent from behind the arc. He's already delivered over a 5x return on his current salary on 41 occasions since the start of the season, strengthening his case.

ALSO CONSIDER: Grayson Allen, MIL at CHI ($5,200)

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Juan Carlos Blanco plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: DraftKings: jcblanco22, FanDuel: jc_blanco22, DraftPot: jc_blanco22, FantasyDraft: jc_blanco22, OwnThePlay: jcblanco22.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Juan Carlos Blanco
Winner of the FSWA 2016 Newcomer of the Year Award, Juan Carlos Blanco has been playing fantasy sports for over 20 years and covers NBA, MLB, NFL, CFL and Arena Football for Rotowire.com, including serving as the beat writer for teams in multiple sports. He has previously written for KFFL.com and remains an avid season-long and daily fantasy player in multiple sports as well.
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